ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2019 Ira Pohl TIM Feb 21

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2019 Ira Pohl TIM Feb 21, 2019

Talk • • • What is AI? A brief history Use in Industry Is AI an existential Threat Future UCSC work

What is AI? • AI – a science/engineering of intelligence – In analogy to aeronautical engineering/flying • AI – model of “human/cognitive” system – Is done as a theory of human intelligence

Acting humanly: Turing Test • Turing (1950) "Computing machinery and intelligence": • Predicted that by 2000, a machine might have a 30% chance of fooling a lay person for 5 minutes • Anticipated most major arguments against AI • Loebner Prize • SIRI(Apple) Cortana(Microsoft) OK GOOGL(Alphabet) • Alexa(Amazon)

Thinking humanly: cognitive modeling • 1960 s "cognitive revolution": informationprocessing psychology Newell and Simon GPS • Requires scientific theories of internal activities of the brain • -- How to validate? Requires 1) Predicting and testing behavior of human subjects (top-down) or 2) Direct identification from neurological data (bottom-up)

Thinking rationally: "laws of thought" • • Several Greek schools developed various forms of logic: notation and rules of derivation for thoughts; Direct line through mathematics and philosophy to modern AI -Leibnitz, Boole Kleene, Church, Turing – Mc. Carthy, Robinson

AI prehistory • Philosophy • Mathematics • Economics/OR • Neuroscience • Psychology • Computer Science • Linguistics • Statistics Logic, methods of reasoning, mind as physical system foundations of learning, language, rationality Formal representation and proof algorithms, computation, (un)decidability, (in)tractability, probability, bayes utility, decision theory physical substrate for mental activity phenomena of perception and motor control, experimental techniques building fast computers, algorithms knowledge representation, grammar bayes, big data

Abridged history of AI • • • • • 1943 1950 s Mc. Culloch & Pitts: Boolean circuit model of brain Turing's "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" Early AI programs, including Samuel's checkers program, Newell & Simon's Logic Theorist, 1956 Dartmouth meeting: "Artificial Intelligence" adopted 1980 AI industry –Symbolics & Knowledge Based Systems 1983 Learning theory - resurgence (after Minsky-Papert Perceptron) 1995 The emergence of intelligent agents 1997 Kasparov loses to Deep Blue 2003 i. Robot – Roomba, Pacbot 510 2011 Google Car –self driving 300, 000 miles 2011 MOOCs – autograded classes, ed. X software 2014 Hawking “spell the end of the Human race” –BBC 2015 Google Alpha. Go beats European champion-using learning 2016 IBM Watson does oncology (having won Jeopardy) 2017 Okay GOOGLE, Nest, Alexa – AI runs the home 2018 ALPHA-GO learns chess in two hours and beats STOCKFISH 2018 Protein Folding-Deepmind alpha-fold Dec 2018

Riba Description • RIBA — short for “Robot for Interactive Body Assistance” — was developed by researchers at Japan’s Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN) and Tokai Rubber Industries, Ltd. (TRI). Designed primarily to assist nurses by lifting patients in and out of their beds and wheelchairs (as well as on and off the toilet), the 180 -kilogram (400 -lb) robot can safely pick up and carry people weighing as much as 61 kilograms (135 lbs).

RIBA -2008 Nurse Robot

Skilled Work without the Worker NYT_ Aug 18, 2012 by John Markoff • Take the cavernous solar-panel factory run by Flextronics in Milpitas, south of San Francisco. A large banner proudly proclaims “Bringing Jobs & Manufacturing Back to California!” • Yet in the state-of-the-art plant, where the assembly line runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week, there are robots everywhere and few human workers. All of the heavy lifting and almost all of the precise work is done by robots that string together solar cells and seal them under glass. The human workers do things like trimming excess material, threading wires and screwing a handful of fasteners into a simple frame for each panel.

GO- Learning/MC • Go Program is now (Google Go program European Champ) about to surpass human ability • How: learning, big data, MC computation; • Distinctly not “human” cognition • Implication: Machine Intelligence is surpassing human ability in ways that humans cannot “understand”

State of the art • Deep Blue defeated the reigning world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997 -current best 3100+ vs 2800 for humans • Proved a mathematical conjecture (Robbins conjecture) unsolved for decades 1996 by EQP • No hands across America (driving autonomously 98% of the time from Pittsburgh to San Diego) in 1995 -2005 132 mile unknown terrain-completely autonomous • During the 1991 Gulf War, US forces deployed an AI logistics planning and scheduling program that involved up to 50, 000 vehicles, cargo, and people • Roomba 2002 > Now pet hair version, mopping, eaves, windows • RIBA 2007 • IBM WATSON- 2011 – wins Jeopardy against all time champs • Google robot Car 2012 300, 000 miles Now >> 1, 000

Achievements • LISP, Time Sharing • Games – early space war games • Intellectual Games – mastery in Chess, checkers, Hex, othello, backgammon, scrabble- and now GO and Poker • MACSYMA –Mathematica, MATLAB • DENDRAL(chemistry, medicine … experts) • WATSON-IBM • Robotics • Speech and Handwriting recognition (SIRI)

Large trends • Big data and learning- google can translate effectively between natural languages; • Big Computation- monte carlo simulations with simple metrics can outperform humans with deep knowledge

Yet to come • Will humans need to work? • • • GO store in Seattle –Amazon no cashiers TESLA –autopilot for Semis 3. 5 million cashier jobs, 5 million driving jobs • Will their be a “singularity” • Is there an existential threat? • If work and intelligence do not define us; what does?

Baxter - $3. 00 per hour • Rodney Brooks : general purpose trainable indutrial robot: cost $22, 000.

AI reads minds? ? ‘MIND-READING’ ALGORITHM DECODES THE PICTURES IN YOUR HEAD Researchers from ATR Computational Neuroscience Laboratories and Kyoto University in Japan developed a deep learning-based algorithm that can generate images from brain activity.

CYBORGS AI HELPS AMPUTEE PLAY PIANO FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2012 Georgia Institute of Technology researchers developed an ultrasonic sensor that allows amputees to control individual fingers on a prosthetic hand.

UCSC AI-and related • • • Pohl- Heuristic Search, Should Robots have Nuclear ARMs Getoor- Big Data Inference Mateas-Games Intelligent dialog for characters, Façade Interactive drama Helmbold, Warmuth, Haussler- effective learning algorithms Elkaim- Autonomous Sailboat > now a degree program Lots of new people since I retired – check web pages