A Growing Concern Systems Thinking Hannah Scherer Virginia

A Growing Concern Systems Thinking Hannah Scherer Virginia Tech In. Te. Grate Module Author A Growing Concern Joshua Caulkins The University of Rhode Island In. Te. Grate Webinar Coordinator and Assessment Team Member This work is supported by a National Science Foundation (NSF) collaboration between the Directorates for Education and Human Resources (EHR) and Geosciences (GEO) under grant DUE - 1125331

Webinar goals By the end of this webinar, you will be able to: • Identify specific interactions in a complex system • Plan for incorporating systems thinking into In. Te. Grate materials

Overview of Webinar Part 1: Guided exploration of a complex system • Student Hat – mini lesson • Teacher Hat – debrief of mini lesson Part 2: Breakout session small group work • Critique a systems thinking activity Part 3: Resources and next steps • Resources • Q & A

Part 1: Exploring complex systems

Why are systems important in earth sciences?

Systems thinking in In. Te. Grate Rubric Course/module develops students' ability and propensity to use systems thinking in considering natural systems, human systems, and their interactions. A systems thinker understands basic interactions among the spheres (atmo-, hydro-, geo-, cryo, anthropo-, bio-) and the difference between open and closed systems. In addition, a systems thinker habitually anticipates that a perturbation in one sphere may have effects throughout Earth’s system, and is able to identify multiple causal factors that could influence a single observation or outcome. They may also have the ability to use the concepts of positive (reinforcing) and negative (countervailing) feedback loops, flux, reservoir, residence time, lag (delay), and limit (threshold), in explaining the behavior of natural systems, human systems, and linked human/environment systems.

Put on your “Student Hat”

What do you see in this photo? Photo by Dawn Ellner (CC BY 2. 0)

What do you see in this photo? Snow Mountains Plants Tufa towers Water People Photo by Dawn Ellner (CC BY 2. 0)

Which components are related? Snow Mountains Plants Tufa towers Water People Photo by Dawn Ellner (CC BY 2. 0)

How are these components related? Snow Mountains Plants Tufa towers Water People

How are these components related? ? Snow Mountains Plants Tufa towers ? ? Water People

What do you think affects formation and exposure of tufa towers at Mono Lake? Tufa towers Photo by Fred Moore (CC BY-NC 2. 0)

What is the biggest question you have about this system right now? Tufa towers Photo by Fred Moore (CC BY-NC 2. 0)

Put on your “Teacher Hat”

Put on your “Teacher Hat” • What expertise or prior knowledge did you bring to the activity? Did this play a role in your thinking?

Put on your “Teacher Hat” • What expertise or prior knowledge did you bring to the activity? Did this play a role in your thinking? • What do you think would be confusing for your students? What could you do to alleviate that confusion?

Put on your “Teacher Hat” • What expertise or prior knowledge did you bring to the activity? Did this play a role in your thinking? • What do you think would be confusing for your students? What could you do to alleviate that confusion? • If you were teaching this lesson, what would you do next?

Key considerations in planning Consider how systems thinking is used in your (inter)disciplinary context Define learning goals related to both content and process (systems thinking) Identify potential points of confusion and plan for how you will break them down Activities, assessments, projects, etc. Scaffold systems thinking concepts along with science concepts Incorporate use of systems language explicitly

“Basic” systems thinking components in In. Te. Grate rubric A systems thinker understands: • Boundaries (open vs. closed systems) • Multiple interacting parts/ spheres • Perturbations can impact other parts of system • Multiple causal factors can influence one outcome http: //serc. carleton. edu/integrate/teaching_materials/systems_what. html

“Trickier” systems thinking components in In. Te. Grate Rubric May also have the ability to use the concepts of: • Positive and negative feedback loops • Exchange of matter or energy (flux) • Reservoir • Residence time • Lag (delay) • Tipping point/ limit (threshold) http: //serc. carleton. edu/integrate/teaching_materials/systems_what. html

“Advanced” systems thinking components (not explicitly in In. Te. Grate rubric) • • Emergent properties Non-linear change Resilience Static vs. dynamic systems http: //serc. carleton. edu/integrate/teaching_materials/systems_what. html

Part 2: Breakout session

Instructions • Go to breakout “room” with your group • Please answer the following questions for each assignment (assignments 1 and 2) (20 minutes) – What do you like about the assignment? – What don’t you like about the assignment? – What would you change about the assignment to improve students’ understanding of systems? • Wrap-up: In the chat box, please type your main concerns and suggestions for your activity (10 minutes)

Part 3: Resources and Next Steps

What questions do you have? • Please use the chat box to type any questions you still have about teaching systems thinking

A Growing Concern Unit 5: Predicting the effects of climate change on soil loss http: //serc. carleton. edu/integrate/teaching_materials/sustain_agriculture/activity 5. html

The relationship between precipitation and soil erosion is a complex system. Estimated average soil loss = R*K*LS*C*P

The relationship between precipitation and soil erosion is a complex system. Precipitatio n ? Erosion

This diagram illustrates relationships between factors that influence erosion in agricultural systems. Runoff + + Precipitatio n + - Erosion Crop Yield Modified from: Pruski, F. F. , and M. A. Nearing, 2002, Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21 st century for eight U. S. locations, Water Resour. Res. , 38(12), 1298, doi: 10. 1029/2001 WR 000493.

The direction of the arrows indicates cause and effect relationships. Runoff Precipitatio n Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

For example, this arrow tells us that changes in precipitation cause changes in runoff. Runoff Precipitatio n (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

If it were pointing the other way, that would mean that changes in runoff cause changes in precipitation. This doesn’t make much sense! Runoff X Precipitatio n (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

But, the direction of the arrows doesn’t tell us how a factor impacts other factors. Runoff Precipitatio n Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

The + and – signs indicate what type of relationship exists between the factors. + = positive relationship - = negative relationship Runoff + + Precipitatio n + - Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

A positive relationship means that a change in one factor causes an effect on another factor in the same direction. Runoff + Precipitatio n + + Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

For example, this arrow indicates that… an increase in precipitation causes an increase in runoff AND a decrease in precipitation causes a decrease in runoff Runoff + Precipitatio n (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

A negative relationship means that a change in one factor causes an effect on another factor in the opposite direction. Runoff - Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

For example, this arrow indicates that… an increase in crop yield causes a decrease in erosion AND a decrease in crop yield causes an increase in erosion Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

So, we can use this diagram to describe relationships between factors that influence erosion in agricultural systems and predict how changes in one factor will influence other factors. Runoff + + Precipitatio n + - Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

Models for Syracuse, Nebraska, predict that precipitation will decrease overall for the region. Erosion is also expected to decrease for wheat. Which pathway is most likely to be dominant for wheat? Runoff + + Precipitatio n + - Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

The same models predict that, while precipitation decreases overall for the region, erosion is expected to increase for cornfields. Which pathway is most likely to be dominant for corn? Runoff + + Precipitatio n + - Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

Based on these pathways, which crop do you think is more severely impacted by the decrease in precipitation? Wheat Runoff + + Precipitatio n + Corn - Erosion Crop Yield (diagram modified from Pruski and Nearing, 2002)

In agricultural systems, humans also make decisions that can have big impacts. What are some ways in which humans influence agriculture?

Resources: a sampling Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A primer (D. Wright Ed. ). White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing.

Resources: a sampling http: //serc. carleton. edu/NAGTWorkshops/complexsystems/index. html