BUS 7500 Managerial Economics Week 1 Dr Jenne

BUS 7500 Managerial Economics Week 1 Dr. Jenne Meyer

BUS 7500 § Discuss syllabus § Groundrules § Introductions § Who are you? § Where do you work? § Experience with Statistics, Economics, or Finance? § Expectations of this course? § Your first concert

Managerial Economics Outline 1. Introduction: What this book is about 13. Direct price discrimination 2. The one lesson of business 14. Indirect price discrimination 3. Benefits, costs and decisions 15. Strategic games 4. Extent (how much) decisions 5. Investment decisions: Look ahead and reason back 16. Bargaining 17. Making decisions with uncertainty 6. Simple pricing 18. Auctions 7. Economies of scale and scope 19. The problem of adverse selection 8. Understanding markets and industry changes 20. The problem of moral hazard 9. Relationships between industries: The forces moving us towards long-run equilibrium 21. Getting employees to work in the best interests of the firm 10. Strategy, the quest to slow profit erosion 22. Getting divisions to work in the best interests of the firm 11. Using supply and demand: Trade, bubbles, market making 24. You be the consultant 12. More realistic and complex pricing 23. Managing vertical relationships 3

Economic breakdown § http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=af. Bw 6 Fy. Pf 34&feature=pyv&ad=257778 3516&kw=economy

Chapter 1 – Summary of main points § Problem solving requires two steps: First, figure out why mistakes are being made; and then figure out how to make them stop. § The rational-actor paradigm assumes that people act rationally, optimally, and self-interestedly. To change behavior, you have to change incentives. § Good incentives are created by rewarding good performance. § A well-designed organization is one in which employee incentives are aligned with organizational goals. By this we mean that employees have enough information to make good decisions, and the incentive to do so. § You can analyze any problem by asking three questions: (1) Who is making the bad decision? ; (2) Does the decision maker have enough information to make a good decision? ; and (3) the incentive to do so? § Answers to these questions will suggest solutions centered on (1) letting someone else make the decision, someone with better information or incentives; (2) giving the decision maker more information; or (3) changing the decision maker’s incentives.

Over-bidding OVI gas tract § A young geologist was preparing a bid recommendation for an oil tract in the Gulf of Mexico. § With knowledge of the productivity of neighboring tracts also owned by company, the geologist recommended a bid of $5 million. § Senior management, though, bid $20 million - far over the next highest-bid of $750, 000. § What, if anything, is wrong? § The goal of this text is to provide tools to help diagnose and solve problems like this. 6

Problem solving § Two distinct steps: § Figure out what’s wrong, i. e. , why the bad decision was made § Figure out how to fix it § Both steps require a model of behavior § Why are people making mistakes? § What can we do to make them change? § Economists use the rational actor paradigm to model behavior. The rational actor paradigm states: § People act rationally, optimally, self-interestedly § i. e. , they respond to incentives – to change behavior you must change incentives. 7

How to figure out what is wrong § Under the rational actor paradigm, mistakes are made for one of two reasons: § lack of information or § bad incentives. § To diagnose a problem, ask 3 questions: § 1. Who is making bad decision? § 2. Do they have enough info to make a good decision? § 3. Do they have the incentive to do so? 8

How to fix it § The answers will suggest one or more solutions: § 1. Let someone else make the decision, someone with better information or incentives. § 2. Change the information flow. § 3. Change incentives Change performance evaluation metric Change reward scheme § Use benefit-cost analysis to choose the best (most profitable? ) solution 9

Analyze the over-bidding mistake § What is the problem? § How do you fix it? 10

ANSWER: Manager bonuses for increasing reserves § The bonus system created incentives to over-bid. § Senior managers were rewarded for acquiring reserves regardless of their profitability § Bonuses also created incentive to manipulate the reserve estimate. § Now that we know what is wrong, how do we fix it? § Let someone else decide? § Change information flow? § Change incentives? § Performance evaluation metric § Reward scheme 11

Ethics § Does the rational-actor paradigm encourage self-interested, selfish behavior? 12

Ethics § NO! § Opportunistic behavior is a fact of life. § You need to understand it in order to control it. § The rational-actor paradigm is a tool for analyzing behavior, not a prescription for how to live your life. § Evolutionary psychology 1

How do firms behave? § Economists often assume the goal of the firm is profit maximization. Opinions do differ, however. § Discussion: pricing of hotel rooms during home football game weekends § Traditional economic view – level pricing leads to excess demand; how are rooms allocated then (rationing, arbitrageurs, . . . ) § Contrasting view – businesses should not raise prices during times of shortage; businesses have a responsibility to consumers and society 1

How do firms behave? § Text view: firms serve consumers and society best by engaging in free and open competition within legal limits while attempting to maximize profits. § Not a license to engage in illegal behavior § No denying that concerns exist about the ethical dimension of business § Reasonable people have disagreed for millennia on what constitutes “ethical” behavior 1

“Greed” § http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=F 0 VHi. ONkot 8

Class Activity The owners of a small manufacturing concern have hired a manager to run the company with the expectation that he will buy the company after five years. Compensation of the new vice president is a flat salary plus 75% of first $150, 000 of profit, and then 10% of profit over $150, 000. Purchase price for the company is set as 4½ times earnings (profit), computed as average annual profitability over the next five years. Does this contract align the incentives of the new vice president with the goals of the owners?

Class Activity Answer No. Both the purchase price and the profit sharing create perverse incentives. The VP keeps $0. 75 of each dollar earned up to $150, 000, but only $0. 10 of each dollar earned after $150 K. Since earning more requires more effort (increasing marginal effort), the VP has little incentive to earn more than $150, 000. And every dollar the VP earns raises the price that he will eventually pay for the company by $4. 50, effectively penalizing him for increasing company profitability.

Capitalism 101 § To identify money-making opportunities, you must first understand how wealth is created (and sometimes destroyed). § Definition: Wealth is created when assets are moved from lower to higher-valued uses § Definition: Value = willingness to pay § Desire + income § The chief virtue of a capitalist economy is its ability to create wealth § Voluntary transactions, between individuals or firms, create wealth. 19

Example: Robinson Crusoe economy § A house is for sale: § The buyer values the house at $130, 000 – top dollar § The seller values the house at $120, 000 – bottom line § The buyer and seller must agree to a price that “splits” surplus between buyer and seller. Here, $128, 000. § The buyer and seller both benefit from this transaction: § Buyer surplus = buyer’s value minus the price, $2, 000 § Seller surplus = the price minus the seller’s value, $8, 000 Total surplus = buyer + seller surplus, $10, 000 = difference in values 20

Wealth-Creating transactions § Which assets do these transactions move to higher-valued uses? § § § Factory Owners Real Estate Agents Investment Bankers Corporate Raiders Insurance Salesman § Discussion: How does e. Bay create wealth? § Discussion: Which individual has created the most wealth during your lifetime? § Discussion: How do you create wealth? 21

Do mergers create wealth? § Dell-Alienware merger: § In 2006, Dell purchased Alienware, a manufacturer of high-end gaming computers. § Dell left design, marketing, sales and support in Alienware’s hands; manufacturing, however, was taken over by Dell. § With its manufacturing expertise, Dell was able to build Alienware’s computers at a much lower cost § Despite this example, many mergers and acquisitions do not create value – and if they do, value creation is rarely so clear. § To create value, the assets of the acquired firm must be more valuable to the buyer than to the seller. 22

Does government create wealth? § What’s the government’s role is wealth creation? § Why are some countries so poor? § Much of the justification for government intervention comes from the assertion that markets have failed. One money manager scoffed at this idea. “The markets are working fine, but they’re giving people answers that they don’t like, so people cry market failure. ” 23

The one lesson of economics § Definition: an economy is efficient if all wealth-creating transactions have been consummated. § This is an unattainable, but useful benchmark § The economist’s solution to inefficient outcomes is to argue for a change in public policy. 24

The one lesson of economics § The One Lesson of Economics: the art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups. § Policies should then be judged by whether they move us towards or away from efficiency. 25

One lesson of economics (cont. ) § Taxes Destroy Wealth: § By deterring wealth-creating transactions – when the tax is larger than the surplus for a transaction. § Which assets end up in lower-valued uses? § Subsidies Destroy Wealth: § flood insurance – encourages people to build in areas that they otherwise wouldn’t § Which assets end up in lower-valued uses? § Price Controls Destroy Wealth: § rent control (price ceiling) in New York City - deters transactions between owners and renters § Which assets end up in lower-valued uses? 26

The one lesson of business § Definition: Inefficiency implies the existence of unconsummated, wealth-creating transactions § The One Lesson of Business: the art of business consists of identifying assets in lower valued uses, and profitably moving them to higher valued uses. § In other words, make money by identifying unconsummated wealth-creating transactions and devise ways to profitably consummate them. 27

The one lesson of business (cont. ) § Taxes create a profit opportunity § Discussion: 1983 Sweden tax § Subsidies create opportunity § Discussion: health insurance § Price-controls create opportunity § Discussion: Regulation Q. & euro dollars § Discussion: What about ethics? 28

Companies create wealth § Companies are collections of transactions: § They go from buying raw materials, capital, and labor (lower value) § To selling finished goods & services (higher value) § Why do some companies have difficulty creating wealth? § They have trouble moving assets to higher-valued uses Analogy to taxes, subsidies, price controls on internal transactions § Can you think of an example of a price control, tax, or subsidy? 29

Alternate intro anecdote § Zimbabwe experienced economic contraction of approximately 30 percent per year from 1999 to 2003 § Unemployment rates have been as high as 80 percent and life expectancy has fallen over 20 years during the reign of Robert Mugabe § Why has economic growth been so low? 30

Alternate intro anecdote (cont. ) § One main problem occurred in 2000 § Mugabe backed his supporters takeover of commercial farms, essentially revoking property rights of these farmers § The state resettled the confiscated lands with subsistence producers - many with no previous farming experience. Agricultural production plummeted. § Farm debacle had economic ripple effects through the banking and manufacturing sectors § Declining production deprived the country of ability to earn foreign currency and buy food overseas § Widespread famine ensued § The government's initial attack on private property eventually led to more direct intervention in the economy and the destruction of political freedom in Zimbabwe. 31

Extra Discussion: Darwinian Evolution of Organizations § Pressure to evolve from two sources § Product market competition § Financial market: threat of takeover § Discussion: extinct forms, Phycor 32

Discussion § Key learnings? § Next weeks assignments.