www culturalcognition net What Should Science Communicators Communicate

www. culturalcognition. net What Should Science Communicators Communicate About Sea Level Rise? Dan M. Kahan Yale University

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is 3. What to communicate about sea level rise

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality Greater perceived risk (z-score) High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”) Lesser U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” perceived risk (z-score) Greater Risk Lesser Risk PIT prediction actual variance low high Science literacy actual variance low high Numeracy U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is 3. What to communicate about sea level rise

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What to communicate about sea level rise

Cultural Theory of Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical individualists Guns/Gun Control Gays military/gay parenting hierarchical communitarians Abortion procedure compulsory psychiatric treatment HPV Vaccination Individualism Communitarianism Gays military/gay parenting Abortion procedure egalitarian individualists compulsory psychiatric treatment Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control egalitarian communitarians HPV Vaccination Egalitarianism

Source: Kahan, D. M. , Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147 -74 (2011).

Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Egalitarianism

Source: Kahan, D. M. , Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147 -74 (2011).

Climate Change High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive)

Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes High Risk (not safe) Low Risk (safe)

Concealed Carry Laws High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime)

Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on. . . Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Difference in Likelihood of Agreeing Scientist is “Expert” 60% 40% Climate Change 20% 0 20% 40% 60% 54% 72% 22% Nuclear Power 31% 58% Concealed Carry 61% N = 1, 500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence

Source: Kahan, D. M. , Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147 -74 (2011).

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What to communicate about sea level rise

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” Cultural variance conditional Cultural Variance on sci. literacy/numeracy? perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num. . . perceived risk (z-score) Greater High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num. . . perceived risk (z-score) Greater High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity? ” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases perceived risk (z-score) Greater High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U. S. general population survey, N = 1, 500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5. 7, SD = 3. 4. CIs reflect 0. 95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D. M. , Peters, E. , Wittlin, M. , Slovic, P. , Ouellette, L. L. , Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732 -35 (2012).

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What to communicate about sea level rise: it’s your team’s issue

Field experiments: Observe & measure

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What to communicate about sea level rise: it’s your team’s issue

Figuring sea level rise in Florida

Figuring sea level rise in Florida

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What to communicate about sea level rise: it’s your team’s issue

Figuring sea level rise in Florida

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What to communicate about sea level rise: it’s your team’s issue

Figuring sea level rise in Florida

The Science Communication Problem 1. What the problem isn't: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What to communicate about sea level rise: it’s your team’s issue

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www. culturalcognition. net!