White Flight from London Eric Kaufmann and Gareth

White Flight from London? Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London e. kaufmann@bbk. ac. uk

White Flight?

Save our Census! • The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (Ce. LSIUS). Ce. LSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K 000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. • Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. • The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.

Net Migration from London by Ethnicity: with rest of England & Wales, 1971 -2011 1971 -1981 -1991 -2001 -11 White British In 3, 030 3, 724 3, 566 2, 953 Net Migration to London from Rest of England Wales Out Net % Change 7, 495 -4, 465 -14. 7% 7, 208 -3, 484 -11. 0% 7, 402 -3, 836 -11. 0% 6, 962 -4, 009 -13. 4% 1971 -1981 -1991 -2001 -11 White British -14. 7% -11. 0% -13. 4% WB Working/ Middle Class -14. 0% -12. 7% -15. 3% WB Professional -11. 2% -10. 0% -6. 4% -12. 4% WB with Children -21. 9% -13. 1% -15. 1% -19. 6% WB Twenties -2. 1% 11. 7% 27. 7% 24. 0% Minority Working/ Middle Class 2. 1% 2. 3% -1. 5% -4. 1% Minority with Professional Children 1. 9% 0. 7% 3. 1% 3. 3% -1. 3% -3. 6% -3. 8% -6. 9% Minority Twenties 9. 6% 11. 0% 2. 3% 0. 5% 1971 -1981 -1991 -2001 -11 Minority 1. 0% 2. 7% -1. 9% -4. 1%

London: Net Migration & Natural Increase, 1840 -1900 20. 0% Rate of CHange per decade 15. 0% 10. 0% 5. 0% Net Migration with rest of UK 0. 0% Natural Increase/Population 1840 s 1850 s 1860 s 1870 s 1880 s 1890 s -5. 0% -10. 0% -15. 0%

London's Population by Birthplace, 1851 -2011 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 UK Born Irish Born Outside British Isles

• Displacement in cities • Avoidance elsewhere

Source: BHPS 1991 -2008; UKLHLS 2009 -2012

White Flight? : Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013 Moved To More Diverse Whiter Ward past 10 Sample past 10 yrs Not White British Total 53% 47 62% 60% 38% 40% 239 286

Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey) To Whiter. To Diverse Sample very comfortable 61% 39% 83 fairly comfortable neither comfortable n fairly uncomfortable very uncomfortable don't know Total 67% 33 57% 43% 46 64% 36% 11 76% 58% 63% 24% 42% 37% 25 24 222

Toward v Away from Diversity – Statistical Models • White British leave diversity when: in more diverse ward, with children, working/middle class more than Professionals; Toward diversity: in mixed-ethnicity house, renter, 20 s. English v. British/Celtic not significant (no white flight? ) • Minorities leave diversity when: in mixed-race house, English; toward diversity: in whiter ward. • London: – White: in mixed ethnic house, degree, young, foreign-born predicts stayer. – 20% of white British in Inner London live in mixed ethnicity households – English, UK-born predicts move out – Higher education/occupation, foreign-born predicts move to London from elsewhere in UK

Unconscious Segregation I: Social Ties Change in distance from mother and share of minorities in ward post-move, white British, 2009 -12 Change in % minorities in ward after move 15 10 5 0 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 -5 -10 Change in distance from mother (in scale points). Negative values represent move toward, positive away from, mother Source: UKHLS 2009 -12 • If blacks are Baptists and whites Methodists, the two will be segregated on a Sunday morning even if there is no conscious ethnic avoidance taking place (Schelling 1979)

Unconscious Segregation II: Amenities 'Very important' to self-identity, minority respondents, by ward minority share, 2007 -11 50. 0% 65% 60% 55% 50% Ethnicity 45% Religion 40% 35% % saying 'very important' for identity 45. 0% 40. 0% Neighbourhood 35. 0% Religion 30. 0% 25. 0% 20. 0% ar w w Le as tw hi te st hi te ar w te hi tw as Le W ds 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 ds ar w st W hi te Source: Citizenship Surveys 2007 -11 ds 9 8 7 6 5 4 ar ds 30% 3 15. 0% 2 % saying 'very important' for identity 70% 'Very important' for self-identity, white British, by ward diversity, 2007 -11

Conclusion • White British have long-term pattern of net outmigration from London • Minorities attracted to London more than White British • Segregation is unconscious. Not ‘white flight’ • Minorities leaving London, but not diversity. Segregation unchanged and spreading to SE • London’s population growth strongly linked with net migration and minority natural increase