Ethnic Fractionalization and Interstate Conflict Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck

Ethnic Fractionalization and Interstate Conflict Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London e. kaufmann@bbk. ac. uk

Ethnic Fractionalization ELF = 1 - ∑ (share of group i out of a total of n groups), for all groups Chance that two random individuals will be from different groups. • Tanzania: many groups, each with small share. High ELF. • N. Ireland or Sri Lanka: two big groups with big share, plus a few smaller ones. Middling ELF. • Japan, Botswana: one big group with most, and a few small minorities with small numbers. Low ELF.

Ethnic Fractionalization (Fearon-Laitin 2003)

ELF & International Conflict: Theoretical Perspectives Realism – external conflict deflects attention from elite illegitimacy (Van Evera 1994); helps to provide cohesion in fractious states : There are many in our times who. . . [wish]. . . that this heated passion that is among us might be deflected into some war with our neighbors – Montaigne, 16 th c. More internally pacified and united states less aggressive.

Theories… Constructivism/symbolism: nations constructed in ethnically diverse contexts may opt for universalistic ‘missionary’ nationalism (Roshwald 2006; Kumar 2003).

Dominant Minorities and Ideology • USSR: expansionist socialism (Stalin, Trosky, Mikoyan…). 50% Russian. • Iran: Islamist mission (Ahmedinedjad). 45 -50% Persian, 92% Shia. • Sudan: Islamist. 5% Arab, 70% Muslim • Iraq: 22% Sunni, 75 -80% Arab, 97% Muslim • Syria: 11% Alawi, 90% Arab, 87% Muslim • S. Africa: 18% Xhosa, 80% Black African

19 th c USA: Missionary and Ethnic Nationalism • America is "possessed of an idea capable of infinite expansion. This idea is that of individual liberty …Our Gospel was meant for expansion… the world needs it, and it is our duty to give it to the world. “ – Rev. H. Carroll, 1898 • “When you shall have extended your dominion over the states of Mexico and Central America, you will have added twelve million of a population, for the most part perfectly imbecile. ” – John Bell, 1857

Xenophobia and Anti-Imperialism • USA (Love 1997; Beisner 1968); Russia, Britain, Turkey • Saideman and Ayres (2008) – Diverse excommunist states more expansionist and irredentist; • Hungarians, Croats, Romanians, Russians reject irredentism, worrying it will bring in minorities

American Missionary Nationalism

Measuring Interstate Conflict • Unit is the Dyad: i. e. France-Malawi 1991, France-Malawi 1992, France-Iraq 1992… • Militarized Interstate Disputes (MID) - 1748 events of 30, 144, 1945 -92 • KOSIMO – 3142 events of 42, 843, 1945 -97 • war, violent crisis, nonviolent crisis, and latent crisis (KOSIMO only) • Latent crisis: UK v Spain over Gibraltar since 1964, US v Cuba since 1962

Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1992 State 1 Albania Armenia Burma (Myanmar) Croatia France Germany Guinea-Bissau India Iran Iraq Italy Korea, Democratic Pe Malaysia Moldova Russia State 2 Serbia Azerbaijan Thailand Serbia Iraq Serbia Senegal Sri Lanka Papua New Guinea Iraq United Arab Emirates Kuwait Serbia Korea, Republic of Singapore Russia Estonia

KOSIMO disputes (includes latent), 1992 Argentina Armenia Bolivia Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Croatia Ecuador France Greece Honduras India Iran Iraq United Kingdom Azerbaijan Chile France Libya Argentina Korea, Republic of Laos India Vietnam, Socialist R Venezuela Serbia Peru Mauritius Libya Turkey El Salvador Bangladesh Pakistan Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Iraq Kuwait

Hypothesis: Diversity and Interstate Conflict • Ethnically fractionalized states too consumed with internal civil war when born • Once consolidated, search for unifying ideologies (liberalism, socialism, pan-Arabism, pan-Islamism, pan-Africanism) • External conflict unifies across lines of ethnicity and sect (i. e. Iran) • True also for major powers (USA, USSR)

State Age vs. State Age x Ethnic Fractionalization

Table 1. Domestic Ethnic Predictors of International Conflict (Base Model) Ethnic Fractionalization (combined) MID 1 MID 2 KOSIMO 1 KOSIMO 2 -. 032 (. 003)*** -. 951 (. 146)*** -. 030 (. 004)*** -1. 529 (. 146)*** State Founding Dates (combined) 0. 000 (0. 000) . 0003 (. 0000)*** Ethnic Fractionalization*State Dates 1780. 538 (280. 621) *** 2981. 192 (279. 393)*** constant . 087 (. 003)*** -. 084 (. 144) 1. 02 (. 003)*** 1. 281 (. 141)*** Pseudo R 2 . 003 . 007 . 002 . 039 N 29, 591 27, 773 36, 635 34, 086 * p<. 05; ** p<. 01; ***p<. 001

Predictors of Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1946 -1992 Coefficient -0. 77*** -0. 33 0. 37* 0. 59** -1. 10*** -0. 15*** S. E. 0. 06 0. 29 0. 17 0. 20 0. 29 0. 02 z-score -13. 9 -1. 14 2. 16 2. 88 -3. 76 -9. 53 0. 06** 1. 26*** 0. 31 0. 73** 5. 50*** 1. 36 -0. 57*** -0. 01*** 0. 00*** -1. 45*** -0. 52* 0. 00 0. 64*** 0. 01*** 0. 11*** 0. 26*** -31. 55*** -40. 02*** 0. 09 0. 38*** 0. 02 0. 27 0. 21 0. 28 0. 81 0. 87 0. 03 0. 00 0. 16 0. 26 0. 00 0. 08 0. 00 0. 03 5. 66 5. 74 0. 16 0. 08 3. 38 4. 63 1. 46 2. 63 6. 78 1. 56 -22. 06 -11. 62 9. 09 -6. 19 -8. 81 -1. 99 0. 32 7. 7 6. 4 4. 27 8. 02 -5. 58 -6. 97 0. 57 5. 03 Ethnic fractionalization state 1*(1/state f. date 1) 56934. 66*** 10719. 67 5. 31 Ethnic fractionalization state 2*(1/state f. date 2) 75562. 33*** 11063. 57 6. 83 -0. 39 0. 31 -1. 27 Major power score*major power ethnic fractionalization Ethnic fractionalization (combined)*shared border 0. 88 0. 80*** 0. 64 0. 23 1. 37 3. 54 Sub-Saharan Africa*ethnic fractionalization (combined) constant 0. 73*** -36. 22*** 0. 20 4. 56 3. 71 -7. 94 Distance Between States Military Power Balance Different Cold War Bloc*Different Civilization Lower of Two Democracy Scores Lower of Democracy Scores*Different Civilization Shared Border*Different Civilization Major Power Modernization*Different Civilization Years since last MID midyrs 1 (spline 1) midyrs 2 (spline 2) midyrs 3 (spline 3) Eastern European Sub-Saharan African Elevation difference (combined score) Noncontiguous states (joint score) State founding dates (joint) log Land Area (kms) log Population Density Ethnic fractionalization state 1 Ethnic fractionalization state 2 Same religion Ex-Colony (combined score) Major power score*combined ethnic fractionalization Pseudo R 2 . 586

Et Dat es hn EF 1* ic F ra (1 c 1 /S ta te da Et te hn EF ) 2* ic F ra (1 c 2 / M St M a at aj ed or jor P Po ow ate w ) er er * *E I F C ts E om F bi ne d at e St 4 -4 -6 -8 Ethnic Fractionalization and MID, 1945 -92, (z-score) 2 0 -2 -2 -4 Et Dat es hn EF i c. F 1* ra (1 c 1 /S ta te da Et te hn EF ) 2* ic F ra (1 c 2 / M S M t a at aj ed or jor P Po ow ate w ) er er *I *E F C ts E om F bi ne d 6 at e 8 St ELF & Conflict: Similar Relationships 6 4 -6 -8 Ethnic Fractionalization and KOSIMO, 1945 -97, (z-score) 2 0

BRICS: Homogeneous and Peaceful? China: 92% Han Russia: 80% Russian Turkey, 70 -75% Turkish India: 80% Hindu (2040% Hindi) • Brazil: 95% Portuguese speaking (50% white) • *Indonesia: 40% Javanese, 87% Muslim • •