Modelle Francis Schubiger Pirmin Kaufmann Guy de Morsier

Modelle Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Guy de Morsier, André Walser, Emanuele Zala, Dominique Ruffieux Meteo. Swiss francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 WG 5 -Report from Switzerland: Verification of a. LMo in the year 2005

WP 5. 1. 1 and WP 5. 1. 7 Modelle verification of a. LMo surface weather parameters with SYNOP stations (every 6 h) and with ANETZ (every 1 h) francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 1 operational, ongoing as in 2004 results sent to the COSMO website

Modelle Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 30%) 2 Summer (2005) Winter (2004/5) francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 Summer: Occurrence of 30% (2. 5 octa) or more cloud cover usually underestimated in Mediterranean region Winter: Generally good agreement

Modelle Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 80%) Summer 3 Summer (2005) Summer 2003 Exceptional (heat wave) Strong overestimation, especially over southern Europe Summer 2003 francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 Occurrence of 80% (6. 5 octa) or more cloud cover usually overestimated in Mediterranean region Underestimation over northwest and central Continent

Modelle Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 80%) Winter No overestimation south of Alps Winter 2003/4 4 Winter 2003/4 Winter (2004/5) francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 Generally good agreement (except boundary effects) Overestimation south of Alps

Precipitation: Frequency Bias (Thr. 0. 1 mm/12 h) Modelle Summer Occurrence of 0. 1 mm/12 h or more precipitation overestimated, especially over southern Europe Summer (2005) Winter: Winter (2004/5) francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 5 General overestimation, strongly increasing with terrain height

Precipitation: False Alarm Rate (Thr. 0. 1 mm/12 h) Alarm R. Obs. Freq. francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 6 Typical Winter (shown: 2004/5) False Alarm Rate is very high (> 50% at many sites) Extremely high where False frequency of occurrence is low. Modelle

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 7 Modelle ANETZ LM a. LMo

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 8 Modelle

9 LM francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 Modelle daily cycle summer 2005 gridpoints > 1500 m over CH a. LMo ANETZ

WP 5. 1. 6 and WP 5. 1. 8 Modelle exchange of LM maps on the COSMO website: ongoing as in 2004: – LM, a. LMo, LAMI and Euro-LM plots can be viewed on an operational basis (daily update of the plots) on COSMO mirror website verification of on higher resolution with a. LMo/2. 2 not yet started (planned for autumn 05) francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 10 LME maps starting end of September 2005

WP 5. 2. 2 and WP 5. 2. 6 Modelle Verification of the vertical profiles at TEMP stations francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 11 operational, ongoing as in 2004 results sent to the COSMO website

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 12 Modelle Temperature verification TEMPs Winter 2004/2005

All TEMPs stations in a. LMo domain francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 13 Modelle Hourly IFS-boundary conditions: Impact on geopotential Summer 2004 (58 forecasts)

6 TEMPs stations west of the Alps francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 14 Modelle Hourly IFS-boundary conditions: Impact on geopotential January 2005 (31 forecasts)

Verification results BC testchain Modelle Storm Erwin, January 8, 2005, 12 UTC +36 h forecast: centre of low: 972 h. Pa Re-analysis (a posteriori) centre of low: 960 h. Pa 15 971 h. Pa francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 1 h LBC:

WP 5. 3. 3, 5. 4. 1, 5. 4. 2 Modelle Weather regime verification with upper-air data: updated 1. 12. 03 – 28. 02. 05 Verification of a. LMo precipitation forecast using radar composite network updated for the climatological year 2004 with a new weather type classification francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 ongoing as in 2004 16 Daily verification of a. LMo cloudiness with METEOSAT VIS channel

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 17 Climatology 2004 Modelle a. LMo precipitation sum (00 runs 6 -30 h)

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 18 Climatology 2004 Modelle radar precipitation sum (without corrections)

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 19 Climatology 2004 Modelle difference a. LMo - radar

Situation AWS (Schuepp) Ele (UA Winds) N 47 14 NE - 10 E 14 1 SE - 7 S 28 13 SW - 50 W 16 46 NW - 31 flat 110 58 high 59 99 low 19 35 mix 11 - jet 60 - all 364 francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 Alpine Weather Statistics 20 Modelle

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 21 ele classification S Modelle

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 23 ele classification NW Modelle

WP 5. 4. 3, WP 5. 5. 1 and WP 5. 6. 2 Modelle Verification of a. LMo integrated water vapor content with GPS data ongoing as in 2004 Verification of new schemes for WG 1 -WG 3 Preliminary exercise for WG 3/5 workshop in Langen (09. 03. 05) completed. No new developments since then. francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 ongoing as in 2004 extension for verification on a daily basis with windprofiler at Payerne 24 Validation of near-surface boundary layer processes

Verification with windprofiler and TEMPs Modelle francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 comparison with a. LMo 0, -12, -24, -36, -48 hours 25 focused on Payerne operational automatic products delivered on intranet

Three types of plots available: Modelle francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 26 comparison between profiles at given day statistics for a given period of time series of monthly averages for a given year and a given altitude

Modelle Verification with windprofiler and TEMPs : an example wind speed wind direction francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 27 (a) comparison between profiles at given day (13 August 2005 00 UTC)

francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 28 Modelle (b) statistics for a given period of time

Modelle francis. schubiger@Meteo. Swiss. ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20 -23. 09. 05 29 (c) time series of monthly averages for a given year and a given altitude