White Flight and White Nationalism in the UK

White Flight and White Nationalism in the UK Is there a Connection? Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College e. kaufmann@bbk. ac. uk http: //www. sneps. net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass

White Flight?

USA 1970 -2000 Source: Andersson Hammarstedt Neuman 2012 Source: data from Card Mas & Rothstein 2008

Simpson (2007) Method Wards Away from diversity Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Total % White 7554 98 726 87 288 73 180 57 102 8850 34 91 Toward diversity

Predictors of Quintile Shift 1991 -2001 (excluding area controls for ethnicity density poverty) Whit. . . Unsk. . . Partl. . . Socia. . . Mixe. . . Skille. . . 3+. . . Class. . . Marr. . . Child. . . GCSE Skille. . . Other Rem. . . Divo. . . Arm. . . Not. . . O level Wid. . . 2 child A level Degree Sepa. . . Age: . . . 30 -39 60 -69 over. . . 50 -59 40 -49 Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study. -100 -80 -60 Coefficient -40 -20 0 20 40

Want to Move? : White Minority Area (Quintiles 4 & 5) N. W. All Nonwhite White Working N 47. 3% 45. 5% 49. 5% 59. 7% 3772 805 1840 466 38. 2% 222 Want to Move? : 98% White Area (Quintile 1) All N Nonwhite White Working N. W. Working 32. 4% 46. 4% 32. 4% 37. 7% 50% 67151 49670 13458 144

White Movers Wards White Flight/Avoiders • 24% Tory • 18% Working Class • 30% Degrees • 57% English Identity • 56% Tabloid • 32% 17 -25 s • 26% renters • 35% single • 12% anti-homosexual • 12% gender traditionalists Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Total % White Diversity Seekers 7554 98 726 87 288 73 180 57 102 8850 34 91 • 24% Tory • 18% Working Class • 27% Degrees • 57% English Identity • 46% Tabloid • 44% 17 -25 s • 50% renters • 49% single • 10% anti-homosexual • 9% gender traditionalists

Networks rather than Nationalism? • “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978 • Maybe white family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move • OR could be subliminal ethnic avoidance distinct from conscious ideology • End result is the same, however: white British withdrawal from growing urban zones

• Whites in Diverse Wards are Less Opposed to Immigration

Whites Favouring Reduced Immigration, by social class By Share of Ethnic Minorities in Ward By Share of Recent Immigrants (less than 10 years in UK) in Ward 95 Upper 90 90% Working class 85% All 60% 55 55% 50 50% 9 ive eo M os t. D en og rs e 60 8 65% 7 65 6 70% 5 70 4 75% 3 75 2 80% us 80 om t. H os All Whites Middle 85 M 95% White Working Class Less than 2% immigrants 2 -5% 5 -10% 10 -15% 15+% Immigrants

Two Aspects of Whites Who Live in Diverse Areas Non-British Whites Transient Population 90 90 80 80 70 70 Upper 60 Middle Working 50 Base 40 Working Base 50 40 30 Lowest White Other 2 3 4 Highest White Other 30 Least Renters 2 3 4 Most Renters

Conclusion Local matters for the national Little white flight but more white ‘avoidance’ Anti-immigration opinion not linked to white avoidance But white working class are more likely than white upper/middle to avoid diversity, oppose immigration & remain unaffected by contact • Some support for benefits of contact with minorities but much of the positive effect of diversity is due to other aspects of diverse areas (transient, urban, white other). Also no effect on white working class • White attitudes to immigration may be softened by contact; or may be hardened as whites consolidate, or if there is new immigration in lily-white areas • •