Real Estate Indicators Ing David Slavata Ph D

Real Estate Indicators Ing. David Slavata, Ph. D. VŠB-TU Ostrava Faculty of Economics Czech Republic

The basic indicators • housing affordability measures • housing debt measures • housing ownership and rent indicators • housing price indexes

Housing affordability The indicator informs how affordable is the housing for families. It compares house prices with disposable incomes of families. • used for bank decisions in case of mortgages • Deposit to income ratio (minimum required downpayment for mortgage expressed in years of income) DI = D/I • House price to income ratio HI = HP/I alternatively I/HP

Increase of bid wages from 1894 – 1922 Czechoslovakia

PI Ratio Index Ostrava

Housing Debt Measures The indicator informs what is the share of housing debt to the value of the property or to the income • Housing debt to service ratio HDS = (M + U + T) / I • Housing debt to equity ratio HDE = MD / VP

Housing Debt to Income ratio Indexed Ostrava

Housing Ownership and Rent Indicators • Ownership ratio OR = O / T • Price to earnings ratio PE = HP / R – Ex • Price to rent ratio PR = HP / R • Gross rental yield GRY = R / HP

Gross Rental Yields in Regions Region Praha, hl. m. Praha Středočeský kraj Jihočeský kraj Plzeňský kraj Karlovarský kraj Ústecký kraj Liberecký kraj Cena za jednotku v tis Měsíční nájem za Míra výnos v % Kč/m 2 jednotku kč/m 2 77, 19367589 360, 5150215 5, 604319535 34, 66619014 115, 273743 3, 990299802 24, 26188835 84, 48113208 4, 178461174 36, 55891016 108, 4971611 3, 561282127 20, 78277886 83, 08900104 4, 797568309 11, 32988048 86, 25603865 9, 135775667 24, 36982249 138, 6462264 6, 82711053 Královéhradecký kraj 27, 73405137 137, 8585086 5, 964877188 Pardubický kraj Kraj Vysočina Jihomoravský kraj Olomoucký kraj Zlínský kraj Moravskoslezský kraj 28, 84587814 24, 63355542 46, 59808964 32, 80959634 25, 6985247 18, 06179775 146, 3425129 133, 2037325 179, 7725426 133, 1278891 168, 7392055 119, 375 6, 087906725 6, 488891931 4, 629525649 4, 869107965 7, 879325721 7, 931104199

Housing Price Indexes Calculated from different quality sources. Samples: • Asking prices • Actual price paid • Rental prices • Price agreed at time of loan approval

Flat Asking Price Index Ostrava

Flat Asking Price Index and Asking Rent Index

SR Index

Basic Idea • Discussion with students • Are the countries with a high share of homeownership richer? • Is rental housing suitable only for poor? • Should the governments support homeownership? • Housing policy of Great Britain of 90 ´s, USA 2008, Eastern Europe of 90 ´s

• A. Oswald – The Housing Market and Europe´s Unemployment, 1999 • Low level of employment mobility of families in home ownership • Low level of regional development due the ownership clubs, who restrict technical infrastructure development.

Research questions • Is there any economical relationship between numbers of adverts in newspapers and economical and political events? • Does the unemployment affect the share of flats ready for rent? • Is it possible to estimate unemployment by changing the share of rental dwellings in the market

Advertisements Analysis • Lidové Noviny from 28. 2. 1893 – 1. 4. 1945 • 312 newspapers • 5000 adverts were recorded • Recalculated as average to avoid seasonal fluctuations • To avoid identical advertisements the duration between searched edition was two months • The adverts were sorted into homogenous groups

Genetic Code of the Real Estate Market – 51 years CZECHOSLOVAK REPUBLIC I WW HABSBURG EMPIRE Emigrat. GD II WW

The main segments of real estate market in 20 ´s and 30´s in Czechoslovakia • Flats for rent • Multiflat houses for sale • Farmhouses for sale • Family houses for sale

Statistical estimation • Descriptive statistics • Pearson correlation coefficient • Ordinary least squares

Time shifts between unemployment and structure of housing market

80 70 Share of rental sector in % 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Unemployment in tenth thousands in t+1. 0 700 800 900

Confirmation of Osvald's postulate: Employment mobility in rental sector is significantly sensitive, while the mobility in family housing segment is inconclusive.

New postulate: The share of rental sector predates future level of unemployment.

Explanation • Maximization of tenant´s benefit • If the tenant loses his job and is not able to find comparable, he leaves currented flat • He maximizes his benefit if the day when leaves rental flat is his last day to have job. • Notice period (for rental agreement and for job agreement) force tenants to start the negotiation in advance (contract economy – Holmstrom, Hart)) • Maximization of landlord´s benefit • If he is informed in advance the tenant will release the flat, he offers flat for rent it does not matter if it is still occupied.