Presidential Primaries pt 2 Themes What makes a

Presidential Primaries: pt 2

Themes What makes a frontrunner (before any votes cast)? n Where do media expectations come from? n Why so much volatility in GOP polls n

How it works in 2012 n About 2286 delegates at stake (R) n An odd sequence of events: n n n IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME (2/4*), CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states on 3/10, etc. Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1 Results from first event have consequences for subsequent events

How it worked in 2008 n About 4200 delegates at stake (D) n An odd sequence of events: n n IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl (1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008 WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states)

2012 Nomination Schedule (R) State IA NH SC NV FL ME CO & MN AZ & MI WA (3/3) March 6 # delegates 28 12* 25* 28 50* 24 76 59* 43 438 % of total 1. 21% 0. 52% 1. 09% 1. 22% 2. 18% 1. 05% 3. 32% 2. 58% 1. 88% 19. 20% 34% of delegates awarded by March 6 2012

2012 GOP Nomination n Super Tuesday less super n AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA n Which candidate advantaged? PR until April 1 n Harder for frontrunner to deliver ‘knockout’ blow n

2008 Nomination Schedule (D) State IA NV NH SC FL (1/29) 23 states on 2/5 WA on 2/9 LA, NE, VI (2/9) # delegates 45 25 22 45 185 2075 97 110 % of total 1. 07%. 59%. 52% 1. 07% 4. 40% 51. 36% 2. 31% 2. 72% 61% of delegates awarded by Feb 10 2008

Primary campaigns n Concentrate resources on early states n Visits, spending, ads n Hope for momentum; force others out early n See NYT map

How it works n Frontloading n Early wins for frontrunner n n Momentum & inevitability or. . n n no clear winner Party Establishment advantage n n IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%) Funding n Most money = winner

How it was supposed to work ‘ 08 n 2008 frontrunners n H. R. Clinton n led national polls Oct 06 Feb 08 led IA polls Aug - Dec 07 Giuliani n n n Led national polls 2007 Romney led in IA Mc. Cain never more than 20% until Jan 13 2008

How it was supposed to work ‘ 12 n 2012 frontrunner? n n n n Trump (26% April ‘ 11) Romney (25% June ) Bachman (27% IA Aug) Perry (32% Sept) Cain (26% Oct. ) Gingrich (35% Dec. ) Paul (25% IA Dec. ) Romney (26% today)

Iowa 2012 Romney n Santorum n Paul n Gingrich n Perry n Bachman n Huntsman n 24. 5 21. 4 13. 3 10. 3 5. 0 0. 6

What Influence of Iowa & NH? n Since Carter (1976) n n n More visits to IA More time in IA More spending in IA More media in IA same w/ NH Greater importance of IA? n n 2011 Straw poll 2007 Straw poll n n Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Huckabee Dan Quayle 1999

Why Iowa & New Hampshire n Why do these states go first? n n National party rule, tradition, stupidity Why do so many candidates spend so much time there? n Momentum, momentum

Remember this guy? n n n Frontrunner in national polls 2003 Moved to New Hampshire 81% name ID 2 nd place in early NH polls Ignored Iowa

Remember this guy? n n n Frontrunner in national polls 2003 Moved to New Hampshire 81% name ID 2 nd place in early NH polls Ignored Iowa

How about this guy? n n John Edwards Never considered a frontrunner pre-’ 04 50% of Dems never heard of him in 2003 “Second place” in IA 2004 (Dems don’t report votes).

Or this guy? n n n Led some national polls in 2003 Fundraising leader = major expectations Third place in IA The Scream Stick a fork in it

The Scream n People in NH reported seeing “scream” at least 11 times prior to voting in their primary Fox News version n Crowd version n

date 19 -Jan 6 -Jan 19 -Dec 24 -Nov 9 -Nov 31 -Oct 23 -Oct 15 -Oct 14 -Sep 29 -Aug 3 -Aug 2 -Jul 6 -Jun 12 -May 29 -Apr 14 -Mar 5 -Feb 21 -Jan Opinion in Iowa, 2003 -04 75 50 dean kerry gep 25 ed 0

date 19 -Jan 6 -Jan 19 -Dec 24 -Nov 9 -Nov 31 -Oct 23 -Oct 15 -Oct 14 -Sep 29 -Aug 3 -Aug 2 -Jul 6 -Jun 12 -May 29 -Apr 14 -Mar 5 -Feb 21 -Jan How Does it Play in the Media: Dean’s “Stunning Setback. ” Iowa, 2003 -04 40 30 20 10 0

Failed frontrunner, 2008 n Mitt Romney n n Spent $85 K p day on TV in 2007 Spent $2. 5 m on TV for IA straw poll Spent another $2. 4 m on mail, other ads Won Aug ‘ 07 IA straw poll n Earned media, earned high expectations

2007 - 2008 GOP trends n n n IA never gots Romney traction nationally He lead in IA polls for months in 2007 Lost IA to a guy w/ a funny Youtube ad n 34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc n End of Romney ‘ 08

Early Momentum n Many campaigns believe that performance in early events determines their fate n “Performance” in early events defined as much by reality, as by interpretation

IA, NH, and Expectations n New Hampshire 1972 n n n Ed Muskie 46% George Mc. Govern 37% Interpretation n Muskie “cried”

IA, NH, and Expectations n Iowa, 1976 n n n Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13% lost to “Uncommitted” (37%) Interprentation: n “Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1” NYT

IA, NH, and Expectations n Iowa, 1988 n n Dick Gephart 31% Paul Simon 27% Mike Dukakis 22% Interpretation: n n Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well Dukakis “strong showing”

IA, NH and expectations n Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996 n n Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984 Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2 nd) Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2 nd, Dole 26%) Interpretation n n “Hart scores upset”. . 32% behind Mondale, beat Mc. Govern “strong second in surprise” NYT

IA, NH & Expectations n 1992, NH Reality n n Paul Tsongas 33% Bill Clinton 24 % Bob Kerry 11 % Interpretation n n Big win for Clinton, the “comeback kid” Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do poorly

IA, NH & Expectations n NH 2004 n n n Kerry Dean Clark Edwards 39% 26% 13 % 12 % Interpretation n n two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in wrong time zone

Media influence & expectations n Basis of initial expectations n standing in early polls fundraising n Beating early expectations n n n Big shift in attention (deserved? ) Failing to meet expectations n Big drop in attention

Media influence & expectations n How is the 2012 result being interpreted by media n What were expectations? n Who beat expectations? Who gets most media bounce? n Who failed to meet expectations?

Beating expectations (Media shift) n n n n Hart 1984 Reagan 1976 Clinton 1992 Buchanan Carter 1976 Huckabee 2008 Robertson 1988 Obama 2008 37% 36% 35% 28% 25% 21% 20% 17%

Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney n Paul n Gingrich n Perry n Bachman n Santorum n Huntsman n 33% pre, 37% post 20% pre, 11% post 9% pre, 7% post 7% pre, 3% post 9% pre, 21% post 2% pre, 2% post

Lessons from 2008 n Early frontrunners not always strong n Polls capture name ID n Dem process = real danger of no clear winner n Frontloading doesn’t help frontrunners n Instant fundraising now possible (Internet)

Lessons from 2008 n Could Obama have won w/o Iowa? n 4 days between IA and NH n Could Huckabee have been noticed w/o Iowa n Could Obama have won w/o the Internet?

Lessons from 2008 n Sequence matters n n The schedule matters. . 2012? n n IA, NH matter. . too much? What if NV went first? NY? WA? What reforms?

Earliest polls for 2012 n The polls: Feb, April, Dec ‘ 10 n n n Palin 25%, 17% Huck 32%, 24%, 18% Rom 21%, 20%, 19%

Looking back to 2007 n Dem, Jan ‘ 07, 1 year before IA n n n Clinton 34% Obama 18% Edwards 15% Gore 10% Kerry 5% Bidden 3% n GOP, Jan ‘ 07 1 year before IA n n n Giuliani 32% Mc. Cain 26% Gingrich 9% Romney 7% Pataki 3% Huckabee 1%

Reforms n Regional Primaries n National primary n n What if everyone voted on Feb 5 th 2008 Closed primaries n Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos

Reforms n Regional primary n n n how implement? who goes first? Delaware Plan n 10 smallest states first 10 next largest states, etc.