The 2008 Presidential Primaries How Iowa New Hampshire

The 2008 Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determined Who Won

The 2008 Presidential Primaries: Or, How Richard J. Daley nominated Obama and Mc. Cain

How it used to work n National nominating conventions n Selection of delegates controlled by party officials n Many / most delegates uncommitted

Example. 1960 n Kennedy vs. Nixon n To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win n Entered West Virginia primary election n “Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

Before 1972 n Most states did not have public primary or caucus n In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters n By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1 st ballot at convention

Today Primaries or Caucuses n Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate). n Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

The Demise of Nominating Conventions n Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes) n Gave “too much” control to party leaders n Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

Chicago, 1968 n n Incumbent President was LB Johnson Vietnam War in 4 th year: n n Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968 New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 n n Mc. Carthy 42% LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but. . RFK enters race days latter G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3 rd Party

Chicago, 1968 LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 n Vice President HHH says he’ll run n Primaries & Delegates prior to convention: n n RFK won 4 Mc. Carthy won 5 HHH didn't run 258 delegates 393 delegates 561 delegates

Chicago 1968 n RFK assassinated June 1968 n Convention in August: video here removed

Chicago, 1968 n Democratic Convention Vote: HHH 1759 Mc. Carthy 601 Mc. Govern 146 Philips 67 Moore 17

After Chicago n n Democrats split, lose to Nixon Rule of ‘party bosses’ challenged by Mc. Carthy, Mc. Govern Reform commission established State laws changed

Post 1968 Reforms n New Nomination Rules: n n most delegates must be selected by voters but how? n n caucuses with open participation primaries, with candidates on ballot Proportionality (Democrats) maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

Post 1968 reforms n What is a political party? n n n voters? elected officials? elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

Since 1972 n National parties kept tinkering with rules: n how award state’s delegates? n n who can participate n n n winner take all? proportional to voter support? PLEOS? only registered partisans? independents what schedule, when start? n March, then February, then January. . .

1972 - 2008 n The Carter Model, 1976 n outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment n n The Mondale/Clinton Model, 1984 n Super-delegates (PLEOs) n n Gary Hart ‘ 84; John Mc. Cain 2000 from 75% voter selected to 54% Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

Frontloading 1984 IA Feb 20 NH Feb 28 50% selected by May 20 th 1988 IA Feb 8 NH Feb 16 1992 IA Feb 10 NH Feb 18 1996 IA Feb 12 NH Feb 20 2000 IA Jan 24 NH Feb 1 2004 IA Jan 19 NH Jan 27 2008 IA Jan 3 NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9 th

1976: 12 weeks to complete 50% 2008: 4 weeks to complete 50%

Differences Dems vs. Republicans n Schedules n n Proportionality n n A Democratic thing; GOP winner take all Super Delegates n n Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun A Democratic thing Republicans more predictable n Democrats = chaos