Presidential Primaries How Iowa New Hampshire and Weird

Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Affect Who Wins

Presidential Primaries: Or, Who might win the GOP nomination?

How it used to work n National nominating conventions n Selection of delegates controlled by party officials n Many / most delegates uncommitted

Example. 1960 n Kennedy vs. Nixon n To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win n Entered West Virginia primary election n “Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

Before 1972 n Most states did not have public primary or caucus n In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters n By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1 st ballot at convention

Today Primaries or Caucuses n Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate). n Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

The Demise of Nominating Conventions n Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes) n Gave “too much” control to party leaders n Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

Chicago, 1968 n n Incumbent President was LB Johnson Vietnam War in 4 th year: n n Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968 New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 n n Mc. Carthy 42% LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but. . RFK enters race days latter G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3 rd Party

Chicago, 1968 LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 n Vice President HHH says he’ll run n Primaries & Delegates prior to convention: n n RFK won 4 Mc. Carthy won 5 HHH didn't run 258 delegates 393 delegates 561 delegates

Chicago 1968 n RFK assassinated June 1968 n Convention in August: video

Chicago, 1968 n Democratic Convention Vote: HHH Mc. Carthy Mc. Govern Philips Moore 1759 601 146 67 17

After Chicago n n Democrats split, lose to Nixon Rule of ‘party bosses’ challenged by Mc. Carthy, Mc. Govern Reform commission established State laws changed

Post 1968 Reforms n New Nomination Rules: n n most delegates must be selected by voters but how? n n caucuses with open participation primaries, with candidates on ballot Proportionality (Democrats) maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

Post 1968 reforms n What is a political party? n n n voters? elected officials? elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

Since 1972 n National parties kept tinkering with rules: n how award state’s delegates? n n who can participate n n n winner take all? proportional to voter support? PLEOS? only registered partisans? independents what schedule, when start? n March, then February, then January. . .

1972 - 2008 n The Carter Model n outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment n n The Mondale/Clinton/Bush/Romney Model n Super-delegates (PLEOs) n n Gary Hart ‘ 84; John Mc. Cain 2000; Obama ‘ 08 from 75% voter selected to 54% Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

Frontloading 1984 IA Feb 20 NH Feb 28 50% selected by May 20 th 1988 IA Feb 8 NH Feb 16 1992 IA Feb 10 NH Feb 18 1996 IA Feb 12 NH Feb 20 2000 IA Jan 24 NH Feb 1 2004 IA Jan 19 NH Jan 27 2008 IA Jan 3 NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9 th

Frontloading n 1976, 12 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded n 2008, 4 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded

Differences Dems vs. Republicans n Schedules n n Proportionality n n A Democratic thing; GOP was winner take all Super Delegates n n Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun A Democratic thing Republican was more predictable n Democrats = chaos

To summarize n Party Conventions used to pick nominees n Voters in primaries / caucuses now pick n Primary / caucus rules matter n n what state goes first? how allocate delegates?

2012: RCP poll average Bush n Christie n Ryan n Paul n Huckabee n Carson n 17% 11% 10% 9% 8% 8%

Iowa, RCP average: Huckabee n Ryan n Paul n Bush n Christie n Santorum n 16% 10% 8% 8% 8% 6%

Expectations n What do national, pre-Iowa poll results reflect? n What is expected in Jan 2016? n n By whom? What if candidate fails to meet expectations?

Iowa, 2012: Result Santorum n Romney n Paul n Gingrich n Perry n Bachman n 25%* 25% 21% 13% 10% 5%

Iowa, 2012 n Why so much attention? n n n 2008 165 stories on CNN 2008 160 stories on ABC 2008 900 AP stories 2008 380 stories NYT 2012: 40+ NYT stories by Dec 24 th 2011

Iowa, 2016 n What effects of Iowa 2016? Or NH? n n Who stays in race? Who drops out? Did any other state play this role? Why Iowa?

Iowa, 2012 n Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? n Bachmann – dead.

Iowa, 2012 n Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? n Perry – dead.

Iowa, 2012 n Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? n Newt – walking dead.

Beating expectations:

Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney n Paul n Gingrich n Perry n Bachman n Santorum n Huntsman n 33% pre, 37% post 20% pre, 11% post 9% pre, 7% post 7% pre, 3% post 9% pre, 21% post 2% pre, 2% post

Beating expectations n Would Santorum have been known w/o Iowa in 2012? n n Huckabee in 2008? Would Obama have beat Clinton in 2008 w/o Iowa?

So, what role Iowa? n Winnowing field of candidates n Defining frontrunner n n Killed Romney ‘ 08, made Obama ‘ 08… Influences what happens in NH, & beyond

So, Why Iowa? n What if different state went first? n What if same-day national primary? n Regional primaries?

Why Iowa? n Benefits of sequential elections n Learning?