Preparation of National Reform Programmes in view of

Preparation of National Reform Programmes in view of Europe 2020 Strategy and enhanced macroeconomic surveillance Slovenian experience Jana Poljak Zagreb, 22 May 2012

Beginnings of common policy coordination • • Treaty of Maastricht. White paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment – first attempt on common European structural policy coordination; Employment Guidelines – National action Plans, Joint employment Report, Specific Recommendations; Lisbon Strategy – Integrated Guidelines, common goals for the decade, open method of coordination, country specific recommendations, national reform programmes; Europe 2020 – European semester, reinforced coordination, combined budgetary and structural policy planning, national targets, national reform programmes and stability programmes prepared together, additional instrument for preventive surveillance of the economic and fiscal policies of its member states. Greater transparency and a higher concentration of information going forward give reason to hope that the peripheral states will have a better chance of demonstrating their vigor in consolidating their finances => fiscal pact. 3

Europe 2020 3 interlinked priorities: 1. ) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation 2. ) Sustainable growth: promoting a more efficient, greener and more competitive economy 3. ) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion 5 headline targets: • 75 % employment rate (% of population aged 20 -64 years) • 3% investment in R&D (% of EU’s GDP) • “ 20/20/20” climate/energy targets met • Less than 10% school drop-out rates and at least 40% of the population aged 30 -34 having completed tertiary or equivalent education; • Lifting at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty and - exclusion 3

EU tools in support of Europe 2020 EU monitoring and guidance Macro, thematic and fiscal surveillance Annual policy guidance Annual Growth Survey EU flagship initiatives Digital Agenda New Industrial Policy Youth on the Move New Skills and Jobs Innovation Union Platform against Poverty Resource Efficiency EU levers for growth and jobs Single market relaunch Trade and external policies EU financial support

Reinforced Governance Europe 2020 five headline targets Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG) Macro-economic surveillance National level EU level National Reform Programmes Thematic surveillance Stability and Growth Pact Fiscal surveillance Stability and Convergence Programmes Commission’s Annual Growth Survey EU annual policy guidance and recommendations EU flagship initiatives and levers

European economic semester January European Commission February March June July Policy guidance including possible recommendations Debate & orientations European Parliament Debate & orientations Member States May Annual Growth Survey Council of Ministers European Council April Finalisation & adoption of guidance Annual economic & social summit Autumn: Peer review at EU level Endorsement of guidance Submission of National Reform Programmes (NRPs) & Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) Autumn: Decisions at national level

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National policy coordination – Slovenia 2005 National Reform Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals • Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • Independent Office – reports to the Government • Programe prepared on the basis of Slovenian Development Strategy 20062013 2006 Implementation Report 2007 Implementation Report • Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • A comprehensive document – description of current situation and ongoing processes 2008 Lisbon 2. 1 Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals • Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • continuation of current form, no connection to finance, lacks indicators (124 pages) • • Prepared by Government Office for Development short term anti-crisis measures Structural measures Tables: review and evaluation of structural measures (18 pages + annex) 2010 EU 2020 2011 National Reform Programme • • Prepared by Government Office for Growth and European affairs Part of a new national policy coordination Measures include financial aspect, indicators and target values 42 pages + Annex 2012 National Reform Programme • • Prepared by Ministry of Finance Supported by budget Prepared together with stability Programme Economic and social partners consensus 2009 Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals 9

NRP 2011 evaluation 10

Reform Implementation Evaluation 11

Guidelines for National Reform Programmes GENERAL RULES NRP should: • Reflect the general guidance identified annually in the Annual Growth Survey • Report on measures implemented and planned to address Country-Specific Recommendations • Report on measures implemented and planned to achieve the national targets contributing to EU headline targets • Report on measures to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact commitments • Include a macroeconomic scenario in line with that in the SCPs For the planed measures: - it should be specified how they will be implemented, by when, by whom and with what budgetary consequences - they should be concrete enough to allow the Commission to asses their expected impact, - they should be prioritised (frontloading) TRANSPARENCY COMPARABILITY INVOLVEMENT OF CONCERNED PARTIES EMPHASIS ON IMPLEMENTATION ANNUAL UPDATE EUROPEAN SEMESTER DEADLINE 13

Slovenia‘s strategic documents Slovenia's Development Strategy 2014 -2020 Slovenian Exit Strategy (until 2013) and necessary structural changes Stability and Growth Pact 2011 EU 2020 Programme of Development Priorities and Investments Report on the Efficiency of Development Policies National Reform Programme Competitiveness Report Stability Programme State and municipial budgets, Funds of Health Insurance Institute and Pension and Disability Insurance Institute Forecast of Economic Trends Development Report Expected changes in 2012 14

Preparation Process First draft: Sent to the European Commission Ministry of Finance Presented to the Parliament Interministerial coordination NRP Adopted on Government session Presented to the Social Partners Second draft: Ministry of Finance Government Board for Economic Issues 15

Content NRP 2012 -2013 1. Macroeconomic measures for fiscal stability 2. Agenda of reforms and measures Smart growth: education, R&D, ICT, industry, administrative burdens Inclusive growth; employment, social protection Sustainable growth: transport, environment, agriculture 3. Simulation of effects of specific measures using the DSGE 4. Public debate model Annex 1: Standard table for the assessment of CSRs and macro-structural reform in the NRPs Annex 2: Report on measures to meet EU 2020 targets and other commitments 16

Thank you! Jana. poljak@mf-rs. si Ana. jevsek-pezdir@mf-rs. si 17