ITT and SKE Recruitment Mark Crowley mark crowleyntu

ITT and SKE Recruitment Mark Crowley mark. crowley@ntu. ac. uk May 2019

Objectives • Review recent TSM targets and subsequent ITT recruitment • Consider patterns in recruitment • Review Subject Knowledge Enhancement (SKE) usage 2

Routes into Teaching – coverage for this presentation • University-led Postgraduate (PGCE/PGDE) • Now Teach • School-centred ITT (SCITT) • Transition to Teach • School Direct (salaried) • Troops into Teaching • School Direct (tuition fee) • Researchers in Schools (Ri. S) • Teach First (Leadership) • Assessment Only • Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeships • Future Teaching Scholars • Premier Pathways • Undergraduate degrees (Integral QTS) • HMC Teacher Training • Undergraduate opt-in degree (Final year) • PCET L 5 Dip in Ed & Training • EYITT Teacher Training routes 3

Teacher Supply Model https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2018 -to-2019 TSM and initial teacher training allocations: 2019 -2020 4 https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019 -to-2020

Teacher Supply Model Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates 5 https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019 -to-2020 TSM 2019 -20

TSM – Turnover rates & Retention Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates ce rs a Ye of vi r e s TSM 2019 -20 NQT 7 Years Number of teachers Year qualified 6 https: //department-for-education. shinyapps. io/turnover-and-retention-grids/

TSM – Turnover rates & Retention Secondary This does not represent 1200 -1400 Physics NQTs. Instead, the number of NQTs teaching Physics (KS 3 -5) regardless of their ITT specialism. Physics 7 https: //department-for-education. shinyapps. io/turnover-and-retention-grids/ TSM 2019 -20

Teacher Supply Model Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates Model expects 53% of entrants will be NQTs Teaching hours per subject and Df. E policies (EBacc) Success of ITT routes feeding NQTs into state schools ITT target TSM 2019 -20 Growth of pupil population and additional teachers needed Net growth by comparing entrants versus leavers PG Routes into Physics assumed to be 36% 41% 47% 82% 84% 71% 77% HEI 12% SD Completion and Employment 8 https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019 -to-2020 87% 76% SCITT

TSM: Attrition rates Physics Completion and Employment 100% 90% 81% 82% 87% 80% Attrition rates have changed with 74% 79% 69% each version of the TSM. The current version is based on the 65% 60% four years up to 2015/16 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% HEI 9 School Direct https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019 -to-2020 SCITT

Attrition rates TSM 2019 -20 Historic completion and employment rates are applied to the NQT need in order backcalculate the ITT target: Subject Target Attrition rates NQTs Entrants Biology 1190 90% 855 1610 Chemistry 1150 88% 790 1480 Physics 1265 83% 74% 775 1460 Completion and Employment 10 https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019 -to-2020

Recruitment vs Targets Physics Target 1265 1400 Number of trainees 1200 1000 800 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 91% 70% 65% 600 80% 68% 47% 400 200 0 11 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 2016 -17 2017 -18 2018 -19 2019 -20 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Recruitment vs Targets Chemistry 1400 1200 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT Target 1152 110% Number of trainees 132% 94% 1000 800 98% 82% 79% 117% 600 400 200 0 12 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 2016 -17 2017 -18 2018 -19 2019 -20 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Recruitment vs Targets 153% Biology 1400 Number of trainees 1200 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 88% 1000 800 Target 1192 115% 101% 96% 85% 84% 600 400 200 0 13 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 2016 -17 2017 -18 2018 -19 2019 -20 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Shortfall in census TSM 2018 -19 Has the shortfall in the 2018 -19 TSM target by Physics and Chemistry been offset by massive gains in Biology? Consider if the NQT need is still being met : Subject Census Target Biology 1815 1190 90% Chemistry 830 1050 Physics 575 1265 Attrition rates NQTs Likely Model 80% 1310 850 88% 78% 590 790 83% 74% 350 780 Consider the impact of hitting target but not the modelled 35%: 33%: 32% Likely NQT 2250 : Model 2420 14 https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/teacher-supply-model-2017 -to-2018

ITT Census - Science ratio 2010 -11 Physics Biology Chemistry Df. E did not publish data for 15 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2011 -12 Physics Biology Chemistry 16 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2012 -13 Physics Biology Chemistry 17 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2013 -14 Physics Biology Chemistry 18 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2014 -15 Physics Biology Chemistry 19 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2015 -16 Physics Biology Chemistry 20 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2016 -17 Physics Biology Chemistry 21 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2017 -18 Physics Biology Chemistry 22 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2018 -19 Physics Biology Chemistry 23 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training What is the likely ratio of science numbers for 2019 -20 from UCAS data?

Recruitment 24 Placed+ Conditional

Recruitment Generic Placed+ Conditional 1000 Expect a drop off with conditions not being met 900 Number of applicants 800 700 Conditional 600 500 400 Holding offer Placed 300 200 100 0 25 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May https: //www. ucas. com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases Jun Jul Aug Sep End of cycle

Recruitment 2015 -19 Biology Number of applicants Placed+ Conditional 2000 1800 2017 -18 1600 1400 2015 -16 1200 UCAS cycles 1000 have started as early as 9 th Oct and as 800 late as 26 th Oct 600 2016 -17 2018 -19 Change from publication date into day within recruitment cycle. 400 200 Nov 26 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census UCAS data drop

Recruitment 2015 -19 Biology Number of applicants Placed+ Conditional 2000 1800 Placed Day 190 1600 1000 2018 -19 800 600 Firm 4 th May 16 90 835 26 th April 17 55 520 *4 th May 18 75 2016 -17 825 17 th April 19 40 875 1400 1200 2017 -18 Conditional 2015 -16 400 200 0 27 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census Days since UCAS opened

Recruitment 2015 -19 Chemistry Number of applicants Placed+ Conditional 1200 1000 2015 -16 800 2016 -17 2017 -18 600 400 2018 -19 200 0 Nov 28 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census UCAS data drop

Recruitment 2015 -19 Chemistry Number of applicants Placed+ Conditional 1200 Placed Day 190 1000 400 2015 -16 Firm 4 th May 16 60 2016 -17 560 26 th April 17 55 400 *4 th May 18 20 350 17 th April 19 15 360 800 600 Conditional 2017 -18 2018 -19 200 0 0 29 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census Days since UCAS opened

Recruitment 2015 -19 Physics Number of applicants 1000 900 2015 -16 800 2016 -17 700 600 2017 -18 500 400 300 2018 -19 100 0 Nov 30 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census UCAS data drop

Recruitment 2015 -19 Physics Number of applicants 1000 900 Placed Day 190 800 Conditional 2015 -16 Firm 700 4 th May 16 40 2016 -17 395 600 26 th April 17 20 310 2017 -18 *4 th May 18 15 260 17 th April 19 10 225 500 400 300 2018 -19 100 0 0 31 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census Days since UCAS opened

Recruitment 2015 -19 120 Physics Number of applicants HEI 1000 100 900 80 SD (fee) 60 SCITT 800 700 600 40 500 20 400 SD (sal) 0 300 2018 -19 100 0 0 32 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census Days since UCAS opened

ITT Census - Science ratio 2018 -19 Physics Biology Chemistry 33 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training What is the likely ratio of science numbers for 2019 -20 from UCAS data?

ITT Census - Science ratio Physics Are particular ITT routes more successful than others at recruitment? Chemistry 34 https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training 2019 -20 *Based on current UCAS data Biology

ITT Census – numbers by route Number in Nov census Physics 500 400 300 200 100 0 35 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training SD (Sal) Teach First

ITT Census – proportions by route Physics UCAS for 2019 -20 currently shows approximately: Proportion in Nov census 60% 46% 21% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36 HEI SCITT SD Fee SD Sal 50% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training SD (Sal) Teach First

ITT Census – number by route Number in Nov census Biology 1000 800 600 400 200 0 37 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training SD (Sal) Teach First

ITT Census – proportions by route Biology UCAS for 2019 -20 currently shows approximately: Proportion in Nov census 60% 40% 53% 14% 31% 2% 30% 20% 10% 0% 38 HEI SCITT SD Fee SD Sal 50% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training SD (Sal) Teach First

ITT Census – numbers by route Chemistry Number in Nov census 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 39 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training SD (Sal) Teach First

ITT Census – proportions by route Chemistry UCAS for 2019 -20 currently shows approximately: Proportion in Nov census 60% 49% 17% 32% 3% 30% 20% 10% 0% 40 HEI SCITT SD Fee SD Sal 50% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) https: //www. gov. uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training SD (Sal) Teach First

Subject Knowledge Enhancement April 2018

SKE – recent guide 10. SKE funding is … available for courses of 8 weeks … for those applying to PE with EBacc ITT courses. 20. PG ITT courses… the completion of a SKE course must be a specific condition of the conditional ITT offer. 21. Teach First candidates. Teach First participants are eligible for SKE funding, providing they meet the criteria set by Teach First. 22. UG courses. Programme and bursary funding is available for eligible participants on designated UG courses in secondary maths and physics that lead to QTS (including opt-in). 42

SKE - courses https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4 TSM and initial teacher training allocations: 2019 -2020 43 https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

SKE Directory Rather than published as an excel spreadsheet, provided by the Df. E as a webpage. 44 https: //www. gov. uk/government/publications/subject-knowledge-enhancement-course-directory/subject-knowledge-enhancement-ske-course-directory

Teachers Analysis Compendium https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4 TSM and initial teacher training allocations: 2019 -2020 45 https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

SKE uptake – overall figures ITT 2017 -18 Data yet to be released for SKE 2017 -18 – Paul Steele from Df. E has responded to recent email to agree to provide this shortly. Subject 46 SKE 16 -17 ITT 17 -18 SKE/ITT Biology 343 1025 33% Chemistry 327 875 37% Physics 332 715 46% https: //www. gov. uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

SKE uptake – by length of course Number of partticipants 400 66% 60% 55% 350 300 250 200 Short 8 -12 150 Med 16 -20 100 50 Long 24+ 0 Biology 47 Chemistry Physics

Marketing SKE The Department (for Education) has increased marketing investment; intensified marketing activities; introduced more frequent bursts of TV advertising; and added new marketing channels. TV & Video, Social Media and paid Search have been the strongest drivers of website sessions in the latest period; with paid Search and Social Media also being the most cost-effective marketing drivers. 54

Any questions? Mark Crowley Senior Lecturer in Science Education Nottingham Trent University mark. crowley@ntu. ac. uk +(44) 115 848 8064 Remember to register with the Free National Vacancy Service for teachers and schools: www. teachvac. co. uk 55 http: //www 4. ntu. ac. uk/edu/teacher_training/