Group 6 Mekong Delta Location Main Room 1

Group 6: Mekong Delta Location: Main Room • • • • 1. Dr. Andrew Wyatt 2. Dr. Dao Huy Giap 3. Mr. Do Duc Dung 4. Ms. Kasina Limsamarnphun 5. Dr. Klaus Schmitt 6. Dr. Le Anh Tuan 7. Dr. Nguyen Hoang Tri 8. Ms. Nguyen Thu Huong 9. Dr. Pham Trong Thinh 10. Mr. Tran Thai Ngoc Thanh 11. Mr. Viet Hoang 12. Dr. Vo Le Phu 13. Ms. Trang Dang Thuy Facilitators: • 1. Ms. Ruth Mathews • 2. Ms. Trine Glue Doan

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Gaps The Mekong Delta Region

Adaptation Strategies Structural Measures Non-structural Measures Policy Options

Structural Measures l. Dikes construction (coastal areas); l. Infrastructure upgrading/climate proofing ØTransportation system ØHousing design system ØUrban infrastructure systems (water/wastewater/solid waste facilities)

Non-Structural Measures l Researches on coping strategies (FW protected areas, structure of mangroves for coastal protection, etc) l Reforestation/plantation schemes l Crop adjustment/re-arrangements l New aquacultural technologies application (species with more resilience or salinity tolerance) l Forecast system capacity; l Public education (awareness raising)

Policy Options l Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM); l IZCM/ICAM (Integrated Coastal Area Management) l Land-use planning Ø Wetland restoration; Ø Mangrove conservation; Ø Swamp/marsh/melaleuca l Test new approaches to CC resilience (mangrove rehabilitation)

Gaps and Future Actions Gaps in Knowledge l Understanding of resilience of natural systems to CC ØMangroves resilience l Lack of synthesis practical study on ecosystem functions/services/values l Understanding of costs of socio-economic to CC l Full understanding of costs and benefits of adaptations

Gaps and Future Actions Gaps in Knowledge l How temperature/rainfall patterns change will impact on species? ØPredator – prey relationships/food chain/food sources; l Pilot projects to test and evaluate adaptation and mitigation measures l Training and educating for capacity improvement for managers and local people on CC

Gaps and Future Actions Gaps in Knowledge l How SLR will impact on seagrass? l Interaction between SLR and increases of runoff (from upstream to downstream)? l Understanding of increase of flood frequency and flood arrival (earlier arrival)? ; l What are economic costs to maintain the status quo in infrastructure systems?

Gaps and Future Actions Development of Methodology & Tools l Lack of practical methodology informing public on CC impacts, which currently focuses on academy l Realistic scenarios on global/regional/national scales l Details of topographic maps and DTM l Applicable management practices of wetland conservation areas

Gaps and Future Actions Systems l Monitoring systems (regional extreme climate events, ect); l Monitoring of land habitats, land cover change; l Monitoring CC impacts on vulnerable communities l Natural disaster warning systems

Gaps and Future Actions Cooperation and Partnerships l Promote dialogues between policy-makers and researchers/academic scholars l Promote partnerships between different stakeholders and society bodies at different levels l (Mekong) Regional cooperation to share data/information on CC

Next Steps l Maintaining the Working Groups from this Workshop; l Spending reasonable time to digest, modify and prioritize adaptation options; l Setting up network of CC experts to share knowledge and information; l Forming IPCC for Mekong Delta Region (MPCC- Mekong Panel on Climate Change); l Build on Mekong Delta Forum platform (WWF);

Identify core values (critical habitat, species, ecosystem services) pertaining to biodiversity conservation in each priority area • Upper. Middle. Coastal Water Freshwater Bracksish Saline Critical habitats-Swamp forest-Melaleuca -Grassland -Limestone. Rice field-Swamp forest-Grassland-Rice field-Swamp forest-Mud flats-Grassland-Mangroves-Seagrasses-Coral reefs Species. Endangered species-Red Crane-Monkey-Migratory and non-migratory birds- Reptiles-Migratory and non-migratory birds-Monkey

• Ecosystem services. Regulatory -water purification- flood prevention- pest controlaquifer recharge- carbon storage • wastewater treatment- nutrient cycling • storm protection- coastal erosion preventionsupporting fisheries, breeding and nursery habitat for fisheries- carbon storage

• Provisioning- food - water- medicinal plants- foodwater- medical plants • Cultural- tourism- future benefits and existence value- tourism- future benefits and existence value

Identify major changes from development that are likely to occur in each area over the next decades. Describe how these changes will affect the area. • Drivers of changes and Effect on ecosystems • Physical Development Dikes. River dikes - Ministry plans to build dykes upriver to prevent saline inundation. Coastal zone dikes (sea dikes) • Changes in hydrological regimes, though it should be noted that the impact of dikes is highly variable depending on the location. By blocking development of mangrove in response to the SLR. Port and water transportation. Changed water flow and hydrological regimes. Impacts of high-speed boats on soil erosion.

• Tourism and supporting infrastructure. Land reclamation for industrial activity, related to river dredging and extract of sand Losing wetland areas and fragmentation of ecosystems. • Urbanisation in coastal zone. Losing wetland areas and fragmentation of ecosystems. Coastal tourism development • Exportation of sand gravel. River bank erosion, and increase in invasive species. Industrial development (saw mill, thermal energy plants)Water quality.

• Expansion road networks. Habitat fragmentation. Gas pipeline development • River channel alteration (river channel networks, dredging etc) for navigation • Changed flow regimes and river bank erosion • Continuing crop changes and diversification • Abandoned shrimp farms being converted to rice fields • Expansion of irrigation systems for agriculture

• Land use change – conversion of natural ecosystems for aquaculture and food production (rice) • Habitat fragmentation. Agricultural practices and overuse of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizer. • Water quality

• Socio-Economic • ‘Natural’ migration from rural areas to urban areas for employment, including migration both from within the Delta, and to the industrial zone • Food including rice export policy • Forest policy and fire management policy • Industrialization through ‘industrial zones’ • Water quality • Population growth • Increased pressure on resources and demand for housing development and construction materials (cement from limestone, river sand),

• Poor, disjointed, sectorial land use planning and policy – will Vietnam proceed to more integrated planning? Uncertain, but hopeful that it will. • Poor conservation area planning, degrading conservation areas • Ineffective, inadequate management of wetlands • Changing value sets e. g. regarding wetlands as ‘wasted lands’ • Improved capacity in policy arena due to next generation leaders taking a more progressive, sustainable approach to development and conservation • Changing preferences and increased standards of living placing increased pressure on resources

• Political Improved empowerment of people and safeguarding of rights to own, use, and manage natural resources • Change in structure of agriculture -transition from smallholders to more corporate, large scale agriculture • Sectoral shift • Labour force changes • Human health

Natural Physical impacts influenced by • River erosion • River dredging and changing channels for navigation, transportation • Mining of sand gravel for export and housing construction • Impacts of high-speed boats on soil erosion • Coastal erosion • Loss of mangroves • Loss of wetlands • land reclamation for industrial development • Loss of biodiversity and habitat fragmentation • Expansion of road networks

• • • Increase in invasive species River alteration Declining water quality of rivers Industrial development (saw mill, thermal energy plants) Increased sedimentation from upstream developments (road networks, other. . ? ) Industrial pollutions from expanding ‘industrial zones’ Declining water quality in estuary? Decreased water availability - from decreased water flows due to altering rivers and flow regimes Change in hydrological cycle

Identify species, harbitats and ecosystem services likely to be most sensitive to the combined effects of CC • Freshwater • Brackish. There will be habitat shifts along this continuum, for example freshwater will become increasingly brackish. • Freshwater food source relationship between predator/prey, including freshwater birds, reptiles and amphibians. - increased invasives- increased insect pests that will affect agriculture - flowering triggers for pollination- increased invasive species displacing endemic species (e. g. reduced Dissolved Oxygen (DO_ that will favour some introduced pest species like sucker fish)increased incidence of fire- fish migration cues- distribution and density of bird species- impact on fisheries? - protected areas e. g. bird sanctuaries as U Minh Thuong and U Minh Ha, . - Grasses Kim Giang, Ha Tien • Saline- impact on coral reefs- seagrasses

• Precipitation- altered precipitation- Flooding changes (duration and frequency) - food source relationship between predator/prey, including freshwater birds, reptiles and amphibians. rainfall distribution patterns will change, and this is most serious in the start and end of the year. fish migration cues- acid soils increase – dryingdistribution and density of bird species

• Sea level rise- increased salinity- prolonged inundation and flooding (even during the dry season)- becomes more saline- disturbance of ecological relationshipsimpact on high biodiversity - wetlands will be lostinundation- seagrasses • Storms - Mangroves Rhizaphora species in particular– will be affected as the stems are susceptible to breakage. - Severe erosion leading to loss of plants- Saline intrusion- seagrasses • Glacial melt- increased river flow and flooding

• • Knowledge Gaps - Impact of sea level rise on sea grasses. - What is the ecosystem resilience? Need to do further modeling to assess the ability for species to adapt, for example what are the possible species shifts into different ecological niches? - How will CC impact on coral reefs Uncertainties Impact of climate change on mudflats? The extent of mudflat retreat depends upon what development occurs to restrict mudflat shifting in response to climate change. Communities living on mudflats are welladapted to living in coast, and will be able to adapt quite easily to sea level rise. Dialogue between scientists and policy-makers: What will the policy on dike construction around HCMC be? There are currently plans to construct dikes to protect the city, but there is also a growing awareness of the importance of preserving mangroves for natural storm protection.

• • • Impacts of climate change on Ecosystem Services Food production (rice) - temperature changes and saline intrusion Water availability - dry season rain water - saline intrusion Carbon Storage - loss of mangroves Storm protection - loss of mangroves Erosion prevention • • Melaleuca forests will be affected by more fire Aquifer storage Water purification Flood prevention Nutrient Cycles - sea level rise causing less nutrients for phytoplants Fish/aquatic food