Framework for climate adaptation research Pan Jiahua ZHENG

适应研究框架 Framework for climate adaptation research 潘家华 郑艳 吴向阳 Pan Jiahua, ZHENG Yan，WU Xiangyang 中国社会科学院 (CASS) 城市发展与环境研究中心(IUE) 可持续发展研究中心(RCSD) http: //www. rcsd. org. cn

内容 contents 1 1 基本概念 Basic conception 气候风险与脆弱性评估 2 Risk Assessment and Vulnerability 3 适应规划 Adaptation Planning

一、基本概念 Basic Conception & Background

Household Wellbeing Resilience Coping Fully Adapted Development Soure: Heather Mc. Gray Drought Time

1. 2 中国适应气候变化的需求 Challenges and demands of adapting climate change in China ¡ 农业 Agriculture 农作物产量及品质的下降：影响粮食安全，导致营养不良。Decease of crop yield and quality would induce food safety, and malnutrition. 农业生产格局和种植模式变化：温度升高加剧土壤退化和盐渍化，导 致土地生产力下降；农作物病虫害增加。需要适应新的作物种植技术， 新的耕作习惯。 Climate warming would decrease land productivity and increase survival of harmful crop insects, which needs transformation of cropping structure, new techniques for heat/drought tolerance and insect proof crops, etc. 农业气象灾害增多: 洪涝、干旱、冰冻灾害的频次和强度显著增加，迫 切需要增强灾害监测预警和农业安全保障体系。Increasing climate disasters affects agriculture much in recent years which needs building of agro-disaster proof and monitoring systems.

二、气候风险和脆弱性评估 Impact assessment and vulnerability

2. 3 风险与脆弱性评估框架 Evaluate the climate risk and vulnerability （来源：UNEP）

范例1：气候变化的脆弱性-恢复力评价指标 Case 1：Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator ¡ 脆弱性-恢复力评价指 标体系 (VRI) Ø 脆弱性指标 Vulnerability indicators • • • settlements 粮食安全 food 生态系统 Eco-system 水资源 Water resources 健康 health 人居环境 Ø 应对能力-适应性指标 Coping-adaptive Capacity Indicators • • • 经济能力 Economic capacity 人力资本Human capital 环境资本Natural capital

范例2：国家层面的气候脆弱性 Case 2：Vulnerability index in most vulnerable countries ¡ 最脆弱国家指标比较 采用三类 13个指标测算了59个国家的气 候脆弱性。 Ø 最脆弱国家主要是非洲国家和小岛国。 Ø 脆弱性指标与发展指标具有密切的关 联，政府治理水平、信息传播渠道和 卫生设施是影响一个国家气候脆弱性 的最显著因素。 Ø most vulnerable countries are nearly all situated in sub-Saharan Africa, some are small islands countries; Ø Vulnerability indicators are related to development in some ways. Ø government effectiveness; Voice/accountability; sanitation ranked the top 3 importance for capacity. （Nick Brooks, W. Neil Adger, P. Mick Kelly， 2004）

2. 5 适应的主要领域 Identify key areas to adaptation l l l 农业 Agriculture 畜牧业 Livestock 生态系统 Eco-system 水资源 Water resources 健康 Health • 农业&水资源 Agriculture & water resources 宁夏 Ningxia 中国适应气候变化 项目（ACCC） 广东 Guangdong • 极端气候灾害&水资 源&健康 • Extremes & water resources & health 案例研究& 优先领域 内蒙古 Inner Mongolia • 畜牧业&草原生 态系统&水资源 • Livestock & grassland & water resources

三、适应规划 Adaptation planning

3. 1 规划步骤 planning approaches 2, 评估生态系统脆弱性 Assess historical and current Risk in eco-system 4, 评估社会经济系统脆弱性 （风险影响评估） Assess socio-economic risk losses in history and future 6, 适应成本效益分析 CBA analysis on adaptation actions 1, 界定气候变化风险 Climate modeling & extremes Climate Science 3, 未来社会经济情景预估 Socio-economic scenarios 5, 适应政策选择 Identify adaptation measures Vulnerability Assessment 评估 evaluation Adaptation Planning 6, 适应战略/规划 Adaptation strategy & planning

3. 2 战略框架 strategic framework 适应气候变化国家战略 Adaptation Strategic Incr D ev e l o pm e n ta eme 程性适应 Engineering Adaptation ntal Ada ptat 制度性适应 Institutional Adaptation n da p t a t io 增 发 量 展 型 型 技术性适应 Technical Adaptation 适 适 应 应

3. 5 形成地方、国家适应规划 Support for provincial adaptation strategy ¡ 各试点省，形成地方适应规划 Pilot research contributing for provincial plans ¡ 整合省级规划，形成国家适应战略 Integrate provincial plans, formulating the natl Strategic report. 3. 6 对规划的执行、监测、评估与反馈 Implementation, monitoring, evaluation, etc.

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