Epidemiologic Transition Changes of fertility and mortality with

Abdel Omran Evolution of Disease Charles Darwin Evolution of Species

The New NCD Epidemiology and Prevention v v Systems approach Disease Monitoring Telecommunications Backbone

Epidemiology v v v Psychiatric Epidemiologists Diabetes Epidemiology Cardiovascular Epidemiology Cancer Epidemiology Infectious Disease

Instead at looking at individual diseases, we need to look at the patterns of

Mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of

During the epidemiologic transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby

Age of Pestilence and Famine Characterized by high mortality rates, wide swings in the

Age of Receding Pandemics Epidemics become less frequent, infectious diseases in general become less

The shifts in disease patterns in the 19 th century were primarily related to

Stages of the Epidemiologic Transition v v v Pestilence and Famine Receding Pandemics Degenerative

Epidemiologic Transition in Developing and Developed Countries

Increasing Life Expectancy and Causes of Death 100 Other 80 60 Violence CHD 40

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Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization Abdel Omran The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971; 49: 509 -538

Abdel Omran Evolution of Disease Charles Darwin Evolution of Species

The New NCD Epidemiology and Prevention v v Systems approach Disease Monitoring Telecommunications Backbone Deming approaches to Prevention

Epidemiology v v v Psychiatric Epidemiologists Diabetes Epidemiology Cardiovascular Epidemiology Cancer Epidemiology Infectious Disease Epidemiology

Instead at looking at individual diseases, we need to look at the patterns of diseases

Mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of death. Mortality has no fixed upper limits. Thus if fertility approached its upper maximum, depopulation would still occur.

During the epidemiologic transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are replaced by degenerative and man-made diseases. . .

Age of Pestilence and Famine Characterized by high mortality rates, wide swings in the mortality rate, little population growth and very low life expectancy

Age of Receding Pandemics Epidemics become less frequent, infectious diseases in general become less frequent, a slow rise in degenerative diseases begin to appear

The shifts in disease patterns in the 19 th century were primarily related to changing SES. With the 20 th Century more related with disease control activities independent of SES: e. g. Mexico, China

Stages of the Epidemiologic Transition v v v Pestilence and Famine Receding Pandemics Degenerative and man-made diseases

Epidemiologic Transition in Developing and Developed Countries

14 years 35 years

Increasing Life Expectancy and Causes of Death 100 Other 80 60 Violence CHD 40 20 CA Infection 0 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 Population Life Expectancy 72 76