Dr Manish Rana Assistant Prof Dept of Community

Dr. Manish Rana Assistant Prof. Dept of Community Medicine GMERS, Medical College, Sola Ahmedabad, Gujarat

Learning Objectives 1. What is Demography 2. Demographic Processes 3. Demographic Cycle 4. Demographic Trends in World 5. Demographic Trends in India Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 2

DEFINITION “The scientific study of human population”. It Focuses attention on 3 observable phenomena: changes 1. in population size, 2. composition of population, 3. and distribution of population, 3 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad

Demographic processes • Fertility • Mortality • Marriage • Migration • Social mobility Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 4

Why Study Demography? v Infrastructure and planning – especially health services v Population structure & its effects v Environment v Seats in peoples representative houses Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 5

Demographic Transitional Theory (Demographic cycle) 5 STAGES • First stage /high stationary High birth rate & High death rate India was in this stage till 1920. Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 6

• Second stage/early expanding. Death rate begins to decline while birth rate remains stationary e. g. -south Asia and Africa & India 1921 - 30 • Third stage/late expanding Death rate declines still further & Birth rates tends to fall e. g. – China, Singapore and India 1931 - 1950 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 7

• Fourth stage/low stationary Low birth rate & low death rate e. g. UK, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium • Fifth stage/declining Birth rate is lower than death rate. e. g. Germany & Hungary Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 8

Demographic Transition Theory Stage 1 2 3 4 5 Births Deaths Growth Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 9

WORLD POPULATION YEAR 1800 1850 1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1991 2000 2010 POP. MILLION 978 1262 1650 2526 3037 3696 4432 5385 6054 6841 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad GROWTH RATE 0. 4% 0. 5% 0. 6% 1. 1% 1. 79% 1. 94% 1. 72% 1. 7% 1. 4% 1. 1% 10

MOST POP. COUNTRIES (2011) COUNTRY POPULATION Millions % 6973 100. 0 CHINA 1339 19. 2 INDIA 1210 17. 3 U. S. A 312 4. 4 INDONESIA 237 3. 4 BRAZIL 190 2. 7 PAKISTAN 177 2. 5 NIGERIA 162 2. 3 RUSSIAN FED. 142 2. 0 BANGLADESH 142 2. 0 WORLD Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 11

Comparison of India & China Total population, 2011 China India 1. 35 billion 1. 24 billion Increase 2001– 2011 69. 7 million 170. 1 million Fertility rate 2. 5 1. 6 Year population likely 2025 to stabilize 2060 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 12

INDIAN DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS • Indian population is 1. 21 billion. (17. 3% of the world`s population) • Annual Growth Rate - about 1. 64% (2001 -2011) • Annual Crude Death Rate - 7. 3 deaths per 1000 of total population. (SRS 2009) Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 13

• Annual birth rate- 22. 5 births/ 1000 live births (SRS 2009) • Population (0 – 6) years: 13. 2% {Rural – 14% & Urban – 11%} • Worlds land area - 2. 4%, but popl. – 17. 3% Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 14

MOST POP. STATES STATE RANK Uttar Pradesh Maharastra Bihar West Bengal Andhra pradesh Madhya Pradesh Tamilnadu Rajasthan Karnataka Gujarat POP. IN MILLIONS 199. 58 112. 37 103. 81 91. 34 84. 66 72. 59 72. 13 68. 62 61. 13 60. 38 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad % OF TOTAL POP. 16. 49% 9. 29% 8. 58% 7. 55% 7. 00% 6. 00% 5. 96% 5. 67% 5. 05% 4. 99% 15

DENSITY OF INDIAN POPULATION YEAR 1931 1941 1951 POP/ Sq km 90 103 117 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Gujarat 142 177 216 267 325 382 308 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 16

Indian Population in 20 th Century Population (Millions) Census Year Total Urban Rural Urban percent 1921 251 28 223 11% 1931 278 33 245 12% 1941 319 44 275 14% 1951 361 62 299 17% 1961 439 79 360 18% 1971 548 109 439 20% 1981 683 159 524 23% 1991 846 217 629 26% 2001 1027 285 742 28% 2011 1210 833 377 31% Gujarat 60. 3 34. 6 25. 7 42. 8% Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 17

Population Pyramid Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 18

Population pyramid INDIA Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 19

Population Pyramid of Germany Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 20

Population Pyramid United Kingdom Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad Ireland 21

Sex Ratio It is expressed as No. of Females per 1000 Males India 940 947 926 Gujarat 918 947 880 Child sex ratio (0 -6 yrs) India Gujarat Total Rural Urban Total 914 886 Rural 919 906 Urban 902 852 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 22

Literacy status Total Male Female India 74. 04 82. 14 65. 46 Gujarat 79. 31 87. 23 70. 73 • Highest literacy: Kerala – 93. 91% (94) • Lowest literacy: Bihar – 63. 82% (64) Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 23

Dependency Ratio • Children <14 years + pop>65 years _____________ x 100 Population 15 to 65 years 2001: 69 2004: 64 2011: 57. 5 Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 24

Some characteristics of overpopulation • Poverty • Birth rate is high • Life expectancy is low • Low level of literacy • High rate of unemployment (leading to social problems) • Rural people are not gainfully employed • Insufficient arable land Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 25

• Little surplus food • Diet-deficiency diseases • Unhygienic conditions • Government is stretched economically • Increased crime rate • Mass extinctions of plants and animals Demography GMER, Sola, Ahmedabad 26

Thank You