Comanche Park Residential Market Analysis Input to Envision

Comanche Park Residential Market Analysis Input to Envision Comanche Master Plan Randall Gross / Development Economics

Tulsa and Comanche Park BACKGROUND Randall Gross / Development Economics

Regional Economic Base � Growing Jobs Base: 1. 8%/year � +49, 000 jobs since ’ 02 � Big gains in: ◦ Health Care (+10, 700) ◦ Admin Svcs. (+7, 900) ◦ Tourism (+7, 400) � Fastest growth in: ◦ Arts/Rec. , Mining, Govt. � Declining industries: ◦ Information Services ◦ Real Estate Randall Gross / Development Economics

North Tulsa Commuter Patterns �N Tulsa Residents commute to: ◦ Downtown Tulsa ◦ Broken Arrow Expressway Corridor ◦ Tulsa Airport & Mohawk Park/Zoo Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census Randall Gross / Development Economics

Site Analysis & Existing Conditions ◦ BRT Line Nearing Completion ◦ Peoria Mohawk Business Park � 120 acre business & industrial park across from Comanche Park site �Goal of attracting 1, 000 jobs �Anchor: Muncie Power Products �Relocating 230 employees, adding new jobs � 20% skilled workers; $50, 000 average salary � 300, 000 square feet on 40 acres ◦ North Peoria Corridor Commercial Sprawl �Estimated 500, 000 square feet commercial � 22 -25% effective vacancy, including large strip center �Primarily discount, fast food, and convenience categories �Typical commercial sprawl: Limited amenity value �Limited new development �Marginal housing quality in surrounding neighborhoods �Magnet high school ◦ Natural / Undeveloped areas to east Randall Gross / Development Economics

Tulsa Area EXISTING HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS Randall Gross / Development Economics

Housing Supply Trends Higher concentration of Single-family detached Growth in multifamily and townhouse, but remains small share overall Randall Gross / Development Economics

Construction Trends � Overall Peak: ◦ 1999 (2, 100 DU) � 1996 -2003: � 2004 -2008: � 2009 -2011: � 2012 -2018: 1, 046/yr 850/yr 758/yr 855/yr � Housing construction in Tulsa has been declining over time, especially for singlefamily. Randall Gross / Development Economics

Housing Tenure Rental tenure declines with age of householder until elderly. Randall Gross / Development Economics

Housing Sale Price Trends ◦ Tulsa MSA � 2000: $84, 000 � 2010: $115, 000 (+3. 7%/Yr) � 2015: $136, 500 (+3. 7%/Yr) � 2019: $164, 500 (+5. 1%/Yr) ◦ North Tulsa � 2015: $39, 500 � 2019: $44, 000 (+2. 8%/Yr) Sources: Trulia, Redfin, MLS and RGDE Randall Gross / Development Economics

Rental Housing ◦ Median Rents �$820/month overall �$732 (1 BR) �$885 (2 BR) ◦ Rents increasing by nearly 5. 0% / year � 1 BR: 6. 0% / Yr � 2 BR: 4. 2% / Yr Randall Gross / Development Economics

North Tulsa Share of Metro Housing Market • 2016: 2. 5% • 2017: 2. 0% • 2018: 4. 7% • 2019: 2. 0% (To-date) Sales Trends Condo Sales: Ave 250 -360/year Townhouse Sales: Ave 70 -100/year Tulsa MSA • 2011: 9, 372 • 2016: 13, 395 • 2017: 13, 619 • 2018: 13, 695 North Tulsa • 2016: 330 (2. 5%) • 2017: 276 (2. 0%) • 2018: 323 (4. 7%) Randall Gross / Development Economics

�Days on Market (Indicator of Demand/Supply Balance) Randall Gross / Development Economics

Market Observations � The Rental Market for Comparable Projects ◦ ◦ � 25% young white collar professionals 25% college students (in central city neighborhoods) 25% subsidized/affordable 25% other: young (20 s-30 s) blue/pink collar workers, empty nesters, divorced Key Issues in For-Sale Market ◦ Stigma associated with going “north. ” ◦ “Fixer-Upper” historic/vintage housing in near North appealing to LGBT, young families, ◦ Young black professionals moving to Broken Arrow, Union, S District ◦ People do not necessarily want to live near work. Tulsa’s commute isn’t that bad. � Most Comparable Housing is in Downtown/Midtown Area ◦ Comanche Park is far outside of the central ring for target urban rental markets including young professionals, students, etc. Randall Gross / Development Economics

Comanche Park Site HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS West Park Randall Gross / Development Economics

Housing Market Area �A) North Tulsa �B) CBD Area / Midtown �C) Northwest Commuter Counties �Tulsa, Washington, Osage �D) Inflow Randall Gross / Development Economics

Drivers and Assets �Potential Employment Base ◦ Peoria Mohawk Business Park �Institutions ◦ Tulsa Tech ◦ Hutchinson YMCA ◦ Mc. Clean Magnet High School �Retail ◦ Shoppes on Peoria �Transit ◦ BRT �Natural Amenities ◦ Butter Creek Park, Wetlands Randall Gross / Development Economics

Indicator: Household Forecasts by Age Cohort & Tenure (N Tulsa) Randall Gross / Development Economics

Indicator: Household Income North Tulsa incomes significantly lower than surrounding areas Randall Gross / Development Economics

Indicator: Household Forecasts by Income (North Tulsa) Randall Gross / Development Economics

Indicator: Employment Forecasts � Projected Oklahoma Job Growth (OK OESC) � Major Employers in Comanche Park Area ◦ +130, 840 (2026) 0. 7% per year � Key Growth Sectors ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Other Information Services (48. 4%) Social Assistance (23. 9%) Support Activities for Mining (23. 0%) Warehousing & Storage (21. 4%) Support Activities for Transportation (20. 2%) Ambulatory Health Care Services (19. 0%) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (18. 4%) Gas Stations (17. 7%) Oil & Gas Extraction (14. 6%) Construction (13. 7%) Accommodation & Foodservice (12. 9%) Motion Picture & Recording Industries (11. 8%) Whlsl – Electronic Markets & Brokers (11. 2%) ◦ Peoria Mohawk Business Park � 1, 000 job target; � 840 jobs projected within 10 years. � Muncie Power Products: 220370 jobs projected (incl. existing) �$50, 000 average salary ◦ Tulsa Tech Peoria Campus � <100 employees (600 systemwide) Randall Gross / Development Economics

Muncie Power Products 220 existing employees Nearly 40% live within southeast quadrant / commuter shed (especially Broken Arrow) Only about 6% live in northwest quadrant closest to Comanche Park Those most likely to relocate: • 15. 5% under age 30 • 11. 4% living in apartments Randall Gross / Development Economics

Indicator: Market Area Housing Mobility Randall Gross / Development Economics

Mobility (continued) N Tulsa Households are less mobile Randall Gross / Development Economics

Rental Housing Demand Potential: 280 – 480 DU Low-Income: 188 - 276 DU Affordable: 60 -102 DU $670 (1 BR); $750 -830 (2 BR) Tulsa CBD-area workers and young N Tulsa graduates represent significant portions of market Market Rate: 80 -90 $810 (1 BR); $930 -1, 100 (2 BR); $1, 200+ (TH/3 BR) Randall Gross / Development Economics

For-Sale Housing Demand Potential: 50 to 90 DU Affordable: 20 -25 DU $150, 000 -$199, 000 Townhomes or Cottages Move-up potential from within North Tulsa, Commuters, and Young Worker Families Market Rate: 30 -65 $240, 000 -$290, 000 Working Families – Business Park and Institutions Randall Gross / Development Economics

Redevelopment of Comanche Park Site PRELIMINARY STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS Randall Gross / Development Economics

Preliminary Program Recommendations � 2020 -2025 Market-Based Phasing ◦ 180 -260 Rental Apartments � 60 -100 Affordable (Workforce) Units (60 -80% AMI) � 40 - 60 Market-Rate Units � 80 -110 PHA Units � 2025 -2030 Target Phasing ◦ 200 -280 Rental Apartments � 60 - 80 Affordable Units � 60 - 80 Market-Rate Units � 80 -140 PHA Units ◦ 50 -70 For-Sale Housing Units � 20 -30 Workforce Units (including PHA homeownership units) � 30 -40 Market-Rate Units Randall Gross / Development Economics

Products Demand & Marketing Requirements �Housing Products ◦ Rental apartments ◦ Higher-density single-family �Cottages, townhouses, 0 -lot line �Nature-Based Amenity Value ◦ Walk-ability: sidewalks, trails, linkages with commercial corridor and BRT. ◦ Integrate with park, wetlands and natural areas through extensive trail amenity system ◦ A focus on healthy living, nature/trails, and recreation facilities for all ages. Randall Gross / Development Economics

Marketing Concepts � Recreation & Natural Area Amenity Rich Area ◦ Trail-based natural amenities and recreation areas, adjoining park system ◦ Clusters of wooded areas / periphery ◦ Diverse single-family stock � Walk-able to Jobs and Transit Accessible ◦ Amenity node & Peoria Corridor access ◦ Workforce Housing: Apartments, Townhouses, Cottage Communities ◦ BRT Station ◦ Streetscaping of Peoria Corridor around integrated BRT, business park, and Comanche Park site node. ◦ Integrated with Business Park planning in cohesive vision for business & housing node. Randall Gross / Development Economics