ENVISION TOMORROW UPDATES AND INDICATORS What is Envision

ENVISION TOMORROW UPDATES AND INDICATORS

What is Envision Tomorrow? § Suite of planning tools: § GIS Analysis Tools § Prototype Builder § § Scenario Builder § § Return on Investment (ROI) model Extension for Arc. GIS Performance Models

Why Use Scenario Planning? Weigh choices against consequences Test policy options quickly Prepare for uncertainty Develop strategies to optimize outcomes

Scenario Building Process Baseline Analysis Create Building & Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation

Regional “Balance” Analysis Jobs-Housing balance impacts transportation GIS tool to identify imbalanced areas � Candidates scenarios for detailed

Redevelopment Readiness Analysis A tool to assess which parcels within a study area may be candidates for redevelopment in the short term. Two methods: � Low Hanging Fruit: isolate the bottom quartile of total value per acre (land + improvement) � Timing: estimate the parcels that are ready today, or within 510 years based on the age of the structure and the value of the land a depreciation schedule.

Building-Level Financial Analysis Envision Tomorrow Prototype Builder Estimate ROI (Return on Investment) based on local costs and rents/sales prices Gap Financing Tools

Test Financial Performance of Zoning Alternatives Baseline Optimal 4 story Mixed Use with existing parking 6 story Mixed Use with lower parking requirements Baseline Height Parking Spaces Land Used Density Floor Area Ratio Project Value Unit Cost Optimal Change 4 Stories 6 Stories +2 127 115 -10% 43, 000 Square Ft 0% 31 DU / Acre 63 DU / Acre +103% 1. 1 2. 0 +79% $17. 3 Million $23. 5 Million +35% $519, 272 $369, 590 -29%

Create Prototype Buildings Why start with buildings? Easily modeled & lots of existing data � � � Physical Form � � � Density and Design Rents and Sales Prices Costs and Affordability Energy and Water Use Fiscal Impacts Height Unit sizes Parking configurations Financial Reality � � � Rents / sales prices Construction costs Land costs Feasible?

Development Type Mix A Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place” Town Center Medium-Density Residential Single-Family Residential

Real-time Scenario Building and Evaluation Select Paint See Changes in Real Time

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Land consumption & impact � � Infill and Redevelopment � � � Unit type mix, FAR, density, tenure Cost and affordability (rents / sales prices) Match to estimated future housing demand Employment � � Percentage of growth on vacant lands or accommodated through infill Housing � Vacant and redevelopment lands Measure development impact to sensitive lands (user defined sensitive areas) Industry mix, FAR and density Employment wage Jobs-Housing Balance

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Square footage of new buildings by type � Land use mix (entropy score) Value of new buildings Sales and property tax revenues � Value of required subsidy Household and Population � � Population and density Average household size Average household income Based on new housing costs

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Parking spaces, area and costs Lot coverage and impervious surface Private landscaping and open space Estimated new street characteristics New street length � Network and intersection density �

Building-Level Sustainability Indicators Building energy use Carbon emissions from energy use Landscaping water consumption Internal building water consumption Solid waste generated

Fiscal Impact Modeling A Modified Version of the Federal “FIT” Fiscal Impact Model Estimate and compare county and municipal revenues and costs from scenarios Uses building values and infrastructure costs from Envision Tomorrow to capture explicit differences in revenues and costs from different land use types Indicators: � � � Revenue Cost Ratio New Revenues (Property, Income and Sales Taxes) New Costs (Infrastructure, O&M and Services)

Revenues vs. Expenditures Net Annual Revenue

Proximity Measures (Walkable Access) Calculate the proportion of development in a scenario that is within walking distance to any amenity, such as a school or park Example: � 50% of residents are within a 10 minute walk to a park

Affordability Housing + Transportation + Energy Costs Assess trade-offs Trade higher housing costs for lower transportation costs?

Shared Parking Opportunity Increases in walking combined with mixing uses presents an opportunity for shared parking

Transportation Indicators Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Trips by Mode � � Auto Transit Walk Bike Cost of Transportation (Auto and Transit) Health Benefits of Increased Walking Changes is Transportation Air Pollutants

Household Travel App Predicts travel behavior based on land use variables Household VMT Auto trips Walk trips Transit trips Bike trips

70 Output Fields Calculated for Each “Neighborhood” Boundary Accessibility Variables Household Variables Variable GIS Field Name Household Size TOT_AVG_HH_SIZE Household Income TOT_AVG_HH_INC Number of Employed Workers in the Household TOT_AVG_HH_WORKERS Activity Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles ACTDENQTRMI ACTDENHALFMI ACTDEN 1 MI Job-Population Balance within ¼, ½, and 1 miles JOBPOPBALQTRMI JOBPOPBALHALFMI JOBPOPBAL 1 MI Land Use Entropy (Mix) within ¼, ½, and 1 miles ENTROPYQTRMI ENTROPYHALFMI ENTROPY 1 MI Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 10, 20 and 30 Minute Auto Trip PCTREGEMP 10 MINA PCTREGEMP 20 MINA PCTREGEMP 30 MINA Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 30 Minute Transit Trip PCTREGEMP 30 MINT Intersection Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles INTDENQTRMI INTDENHALFMI INTDEN 1 MI Percent of 4 -way Intersections within ¼, ½, and 1 miles PCT 4 WAYINTQTRMI PCT 4 WAYINTHALFMI PCT 4 WAYINT 1 MI Transit Stop Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles TRANSSTOPDENQTRMI TRANSSTOPDENHALFMI TRANSSTOPDEN 1 MI Rail Stops within a ½ mile RAILTRANSSTOPHALFMI

Activity Density (Jobs + Pop) / Developed Area

Employment Access Within 10 minute auto trip

Job Population Balance 1 -ABS(EMP-0. 2*POP)/(EMP+0. 2*POP)

Intersection Density Within a quarter mile

Percent 4 -Way Intersections Within a quarter mile

Transit Stop Density Within a quarter mile

Rail Stop Density Within a quarter mile

Land Use Mix Within a quarter mile

HH VMT

Vehicle Trips

Walk Trips

Bike Trips

Transit Trips

Web-based ET+ In Development As easy as Google Maps No costly licenses or fast computers required for users Many uses: � Real-time zoning administration � Direct local feedback on forecasts or plans � Live workshops with technical audience � Scenario development on mobile devices http: //et. tacc. utexas. edu/etmap. html