California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2018 2030

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2018 -2030 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast IEPR Workshop December 15, 2017 Chris Kavalec Energy Assessments Division Chris. Kavalec@energy. ca. gov (916) 654 -5184 1

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2018 -2030 Revised Forecast (CED 2017 Revised): Methods and Inputs 2

California Energy Commission Electricity Planning Areas • • • Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) Southern California Edison (SCE) San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) Northern California Non-California ISO (NCNC) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) • Imperial Irrigation District (IID) • Burbank/Glendale (BUGL) • Valley Electric Association (VEA) 3

California Energy Commission Natural Gas Planning Areas • Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) • Southern California Gas Company (So. Cal Gas) • San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) • Other 4

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary: California Energy Demand Preliminary Forecast (CED 2015 Preliminary) • New geographic scheme • Electricity consumption down slightly compared to the 2014 forecast update because of lower EV forecast and update of standards impacts • Greater decrease in electricity sales and peak demand for IOUs because of higher PV projections • Baseline forecast only—no AAEE savings until revised forecast 5

California Energy Commission Three Baseline Demand Cases • High Demand Case: Higher economic and demographic growth, higher climate change impacts, EV high case, lower electricity rates, less self-generation • Low Demand Case: Lower economic and demographic growth, no climate change impacts, EV low case, higher electricity rates, more selfgeneration • Mid Demand Case: Assumptions in between the high and low demand cases 6

California Energy Commission Economic Assumptions • High Demand Case: Moody’s Custom High Scenario • Mid Demand Case: Moody’s Baseline Scenario • Low Demand Case: Moody’s Lower Long. Term Growth Scenario • Overall, little difference in drivers for mid case vs. CEDU 2016 mid 7

California Energy Commission Comparison of Economic Assumptions by Demand Case Average Annual % Growth, 2016 -2027 Variable High Mid Low CEDU 2016 Mid Personal Income 3. 05 2. 73 2. 40 2. 85 Total Employment Manufacturing Output 0. 98 0. 88 0. 77 0. 90 3. 29 3. 00 2. 72 2. 57 Population 0. 82 Households 1. 33 0. 96 1. 10 8

California Energy Commission Energy Efficiency • CED 2017 Revised incorporates 2016 -2017 utility program savings (IOU and POU) • CED 2017 Revised incorporates 2016 Title 24 building standards updates • Additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) in upcoming presentation • Efficiency savings beyond AAEE developed by Efficiency Division in support of SB 350 (upcoming presentation) 9

California Energy Commission Other Assumptions/Inputs: Climate Change • Temperature scenarios developed by Scripps Institute of Oceanography through Energy Commission’s Research and Development Division • High and mid scenarios • Affects electricity consumption and peak and natural gas consumption • Regression-based estimation 10

California Energy Commission Climate Change Impacts on Statewide Electricity Consumption Net effect: more CDD, less HDD 11

California Energy Commission Climate Change Impacts on Statewide Electricity Noncoincident Peak 1% increase in peak by 2030 in mid case 12

California Energy Commission Climate Change Impacts on Statewide End User Natural Gas Consumption 1. 6% decrease in consumption by 2030 in mid case 13

California Energy Commission Other Assumptions/Inputs: Light. Duty Electric Vehicles • Results presented in December 4 workshop • Vetting process through Demand Analysis Working Group and Joint Agency Steering Committee • Forecasted stock of 3. 3 million by 2030 in the mid case 14

California Energy Commission Light-Duty EV Electricity Consumption ~3, 300 GWh higher in the new mid case vs. CEDU 2016 by 2027 15

California Energy Commission Other Assumptions/Inputs: Additional Electrification • Includes ports, truck stops, truck refrigeration, forklifts, medium- and heavy-duty trucks, and rail • Affects commercial, industrial, and TCU sectors • Mid, high, and low scenarios • Around 900 GWh impact statewide by 2030 16

California Energy Commission Other Assumptions/Inputs: Community Choice Aggregators • Analysis in progress, will be provided with our LSE and balancing authority forms • 12 CCAs currently serving load, with several more coming on board in next few months • QFER and Resource Adequacy filings, IOU projections 17

California Energy Commission Other Key Inputs Discussed in Upcoming Presentations • Residential TOU Pricing Impacts • Self-generation (including uncommitted PV) • Hourly load forecasts 18

California Energy Commission CED 2017 Revised: Summary of Statewide Results 19

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline Electricity Consumption CED 2017 Revised mid case around 3% higher than CEDU 2016 in 2027 20

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline Electricity Sales Increase in EV consumption pushes CED 2017 Revised mid case above CEDU 2016 by 2024 21

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline Noncoincident Peak shift for IOUs pushes CED 2017 Revised mid case above CEDU 2016 22

California Energy Commission Impact of Peak Shift Statewide Peak shift reaches ~3, 400 MW by 2030 in mid case 23

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline End-User Natural Gas Demand Transition from actual historical to “normal” weather creates significant jump in 2017 24

California Energy Commission Remaining Work • Hourly loads for AAEE • Busbar disaggregation for AAEE (and uncommitted PV if time allows) • LSE forecasts 25

California Energy Commission Comments/Questions? 26