California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 2026

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 -2026 Preliminary Electricity Forecast: Southern California Edison Planning Area July 7, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Demand Analysis Office Malachi. Weng-Gutierrez@energy. ca. gov 1

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary • Planning area is now the SCE TAC area – Five climate zones • Electricity consumption growth down slightly compared to CEDU 2014 in mid case because of slightly lower EV forecast—offset partially by faster growth in number of households • Sales and peak forecasts down more significantly because of higher PV adoption • More growth in inland climate zones 2

California Energy Commission SCE Electricity Consumption New mid case grows by 1. 06% per year 2013 -2025, compared to 1. 13% in CEDU 2014 mid case for planning area under old definition 130 000 125 000 120 000 115 000 110 000 100 000 CED 2015 Preliminary High Demand 95 000 2026 2024 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 80 000 1996 History 1994 85 000 1992 CED 2015 Preliminary Low Demand 2022 CED 2015 Preliminary Mid Demand 90 000 1990 GWh 105 000 3

California Energy Commission SCE Electricity Sales New mid case grows at 0. 55% per year (2013 -2025) compared to 0. 99% for CEDU 2014 mid case 120 000 115 000 110 000 105 000 95 000 CED 2015 Preliminary High Demand CEDU 2014 Mid Demand 90 000 CED 2015 Preliminary Mid Demand CED 2015 Preliminary Low Demand 85 000 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 80 000 1992 History 1990 GWh 100 000 4

California Energy Commission SCE Peak Demand New mid case 1, 000 MW below CEDU 2014 mid case by 2025 28 000 26 000 24 000 CED 2015 High Demand 20 000 CEDU 2014 Mid Demand CED 2015 Low Demand 18 000 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 16 000 1992 History 1990 MW 22 000 5

California Energy Commission SCE PV Energy Over 5, 000 GWh difference between new and old mid cases by 2025 6

California Energy Commission SCE PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Preliminary mid case corresponds to around 4, 500 MW capacity in 2026 7

California Energy Commission SCE Light-Duty EV Energy CEDU 2014 mid case around 450 GWh higher than new mid case in 2025 8

California Energy Commission Efficiency Programs: EM&V Adjustment Net effect: +18 GWh in 2015, -35 GWh in 2026 9

California Energy Commission Growth in Electricity Consumption by Climate Zone, 2013 -2026 Climate Zone High Case Mid Case Low Case L. A. Metro Big Creek West Big Creek East Northeast Eastern 1. 25% 1. 29% 1. 33% 1. 30% 1. 80% 0. 94% 1. 04% 1. 21% 1. 00% 1. 57% 0. 75% 1. 08% 0. 87% 1. 44% 10

California Energy Commission Growth in Peak Demand by Climate Zone, 2014 -2026 Climate Zone High Case Mid Case Low Case L. A. Metro Big Creek West Big Creek East Northeast Eastern 0. 93% 1. 00% 2. 07% 1. 28% 1. 64% 0. 51% 0. 65% 1. 68% 0. 89% 1. 24% 0. 21% 0. 25% 1. 34% 0. 58% 0. 92% 11

California Energy Commission Comparison with SCE Forecast • SCE sales forecast significantly higher than CED 2015 Preliminary mid case – – – Higher EV forecast (by ~1, 000 GWh in 2026) Less rate growth, especially in non-residential Higher commercial forecast Growth in actual sales in 2014 Significant impact of additional electrification • Peak forecast closer; difference in assumptions about EV peak and PV peak factor 12