California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 2026

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 -2026 Preliminary Electricity Forecast: San Diego Gas & Electric Planning Area July 7, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Demand Analysis Office Malachi. Weng-Gutierrez@energy. ca. gov 1

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary • No change to planning area definition • Electricity consumption in mid case up slightly compared to CEDU 2014 because of faster growth in number of households and slightly higher EV forecast • Sales down slightly because of higher PV adoption • Peak demand down more significantly because of higher PV adoption 2

California Energy Commission SDG&E Electricity Consumption New mid case around 280 GWh above CEDU 2014 mid case in 2025 28 000 26 000 24 000 22 000 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 14 000 1992 16 000 2012 18 000 2010 CED 2015 Preliminary High Demand CED 2015 Preliminary Mid Demand CED 2015 Preliminary Low Demand 1990 GWh 20 000 3

California Energy Commission SDG&E Number of Households New mid case grows at 1. 00% per year compared to 0. 82% for CEDU 2014 mid case 4

California Energy Commission SDG&E Electricity Sales New mid case grows at 0. 82% per year (2013 -2025) compared to 1. 03% for CEDU 2014 mid case 24 000 23 000 22 000 21 000 20 000 18 000 17 000 CED 2015 Preliminary High Demand CEDU 2014 Mid Demand 16 000 CED 2015 Preliminary Mid Demand CED 2015 Preliminary Low Demand 15 000 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 14 000 1992 History 1990 GWh 19 000 5

California Energy Commission SDG&E Peak Demand New mid case almost 200 MW below CEDU 2014 mid case by 2025 5 750 5 250 4 750 CEDU 2014 Mid Demand 3 750 CED 2015 High Demand CED 2015 Mid Demand CED 2015 Low Demand 3 250 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 2 750 History 1990 MW 4 250 6

California Energy Commission SDG&E PV Energy Almost all of the increase comes from residential 7

California Energy Commission SDG&E PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Preliminary mid case corresponds to around 1, 200 MW capacity in 2026 8

California Energy Commission SDG&E Light-Duty EV Energy New mid case around 50 GWH higher than CEDU 2014 mid case in 2025 9

California Energy Commission Efficiency Programs: EM&V Adjustment Net effect: -68 GWh in 2015, -2 GWh in 2026 10

California Energy Commission Comparison with SDG&E Forecast • SDG&E has lower EV forecast (by ~200 GWH in 2026) and lower PV forecast (by ~300 GWh in 2026) • Netting out EV and PV differences, sales in 2026 very close to CEC 2015 Preliminary mid case (within 130 GWh) • Peak forecast also close in 2026: netting out PV difference (25 MW), within 90 MW 11

California Energy Commission Comparison with SDG&E Forecast Issues • End Use modeling – Lower residential sales and differing path—initial decrease followed by faster growth – Higher commercial sales forecast • Difference in commercial floor space • Historical street light sales 12