California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 2026

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 -2026 Preliminary Electricity Forecast: SMUD Service Territory July 7, 2015 Cary Garcia Demand Analysis Office Cary. Garcia@energy. ca. gov 1

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary • Electricity consumption up compared to CEDU 2014 because of higher household forecast— partially offset by lower growth in light-duty EVs • Sales and peak forecasts also grow faster compared to CEDU 2014 as differences in PV adoption not as dramatic as for IOUs • SMUD climate zone grows fastest in Northern California non-CAISO planning area for consumption, slowest for peak demand 2

California Energy Commission SMUD Electricity Consumption All three CED 2015 Preliminary cases above CEDU 2014 mid case 3

California Energy Commission SMUD Number of Households New mid case grows at 1. 27% per year compared to 0. 87% for CEDU 2014 mid case 4

California Energy Commission SMUD Electricity Sales New mid case closer to CEDU 2014 mid case (compared to consumption) due to slightly more PV 5

California Energy Commission SMUD Peak Demand Faster growth 2014 -25 in new mid case (1. 35% per year) vs. CEDU 2014 mid case (1. 15%) 6

California Energy Commission SMUD PV Energy Increase of around 100 GWh for new mid case compared to CEDU 2014 mid case in 2025 7

California Energy Commission SMUD PV Peak Impacts Lower PV peak impacts in new mid case compared to CEDU 2014 mid case due to adjustment in peak factor 8

California Energy Commission SMUD Light-Duty EV Energy CEDU 2014 mid case around 50 GWH higher than new mid case in 2025 9

California Energy Commission Efficiency Programs: EM&V Adjustment Net effect: +5 GWh in 2014, +42 GWh in 2026 10

California Energy Commission NCNC Growth by Climate Zone: Electricity Consumption, 2013 -2026 Climate Zone High Case Mid Case Low Case SMUD Service Territory Turlock Irrigation District BANC not including SMUD 1. 86% 1. 63% 1. 65% 1. 66% 1. 40% 1. 45% 1. 52% 1. 29% 1. 34% 11

California Energy Commission NCNC Growth by Climate Zone: Peak Demand, 2014 -2026 Climate Zone High Case Mid Case Low Case SMUD Service Territory Turlock Irrigation District BANC not including SMUD 1. 59% 1. 95% 1. 80% 1. 33% 1. 62% 1. 44% 1. 03% 1. 35% 1. 22% 12

California Energy Commission Comparison with SMUD Forecast • SMUD has higher EV forecast (by ~50 GWH in 2026) and lower PV forecast (by ~300 GWh in 2026) • Netting out EV and PV differences, sales in 2026 significantly lower than CED 2015 Preliminary mid case (around 800 GWh) – Difference is in residential forecast • Peak forecast closer in 2026: netting out PV difference, within 110 MW (~3%) 13

California Energy Commission Comparison with SMUD Forecast Issues • PV adoption • Residential forecast – SMUD combines short-term and long-term forecast – Plug-load consumption may be high in CED 2015 Preliminary forecast 14