California Energy Commission 2015 California Energy Demand Electricity

California Energy Commission 2015 California Energy Demand Electricity and Natural Gas Demand Forecast: Inputs and Assumptions February 26, 2015 Chris Kavalec Demand Analysis Office Electricity Assessments Division Chris. Kavalec@energy. ca. gov 916 -654 -5184 1

California Energy Commission Presentation • • Timeline Scenarios Economic/Demographic Common Cases Preferred Resources: Efficiency and Demand Response • Other Supporting Presentations – Distributed Generation – Electrification (including EVs) – Electricity and Natural Gas Rates 2

California Energy Commission CED 2015 E&NG Forecast Timeline • Demand Forms requested from LSEs (April 15) • Preliminary forecast/workshop (June 2015) • Revised forecast/workshop (November/December 2015) • Final Forecast and Adoption (December/January) 3

California Energy Commission Baseline Demand Scenarios • High economic and demographic growth, lower rates, lower self-generation impacts, strong climate change impacts, more electrification (high demand scenario) • Mid econ-demo growth, mid rates, mid self-generation impacts, “likely” climate change impacts , “likely” electrification (mid demand scenario) • Lower econ-demo growth, higher rates, higher selfgeneration impacts, no climate change impacts, less electrification (low demand scenario) 4

California Energy Commission Economic and Demographic Common Cases 5

California Energy Commission Takeaways from Econ-Demo Discussion • “Scarring” effect but little chance of short-term slump to mar recovery • Housing recovery plus aging of Baby Boomers plus characteristics of Millennials likely to reduce persons per household • Migration patterns within state make climate zone analysis important, particularly peak impacts 6

California Energy Commission Econ/Demo Scenarios Available • Moody’s Analytics: 6 scenarios – – – Base Case S 1: Stronger Near-Term Rebound S 2: Slower Near-Term Recovery S 3: Moderate Recession S 4: Protracted Slump S 5: Lower Long-Term Growth • Global Insight: 3 Scenarios – Base Case – Optimistic – Pessimistic 7

California Energy Commission Proposed Econ/Demo Common Cases • General – High Demand: Global Insight Optimistic – Mid Demand: Moody’s Base Case – Low Demand: Moody’s Lower Long-Term Growth • Population and Households – High Demand: Global Insight and Global Insight Optimistic – Mid Demand: Moody’s Base Case – Low Demand: DOF 8

California Energy Commission Proposed Common Cases: Personal Income CED 2015 and CEDU 2014 mid cases almost identical 9

California Energy Commission Proposed Common Cases: Statewide Employment CED 2015 mid case slightly higher than CEDU 2014 10

California Energy Commission Proposed Common Cases: Statewide Manufacturing Output CED 2015 mid case slightly lower than CEDU 2014 11

California Energy Commission Proposed Common Cases: Statewide Number of Households CED 2015 low case higher than CEDU 2014 mid case 12

California Energy Commission Preferred Resources: Efficiency and Load-Modifying Demand Response 13

California Energy Commission Efficiency: New for CED 2015 • • 2014 Appliance Standards 2015 IOU Programs 2014 and 2015 POU programs New estimates for Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency (AAEE) – For IOUs, from CPUC Goals and Potential Study – Estimates for POUs 14

California Energy Commission CPUC Goals and Potential Study • Future T 20, T 24, and Federal standards • Future incentive and behavioral program savings • Zero Net Energy, AB 758, EUC, PACE, Proposition 39 • Two Stages – Stage 1: Summer/Fall Completion for CED 2015 – Stage 2: 2015 -2016 15

California Energy Commission Load-Modifying Demand Response (Baseline Forecast) • Non-event based: time-of-use rates and permanent load shifting • Event-based: critical peak pricing and peak time rebates • From annual IOU load impact reports • Impact on load: 200 -300 MW (IOUs combined) • Future LMDR likely to become more significant once CPUC finalizes definition 16

California Energy Commission Additional Analysis: TOU Rates • Energy Commission, CPUC and California ISO staff • Six scenarios being developed, assuming varying levels of participation and hourly structure • Concentrates on residential • Two scenarios developed specifically to address “duck curve” issue • Current plans are for stand-alone analysis not incorporated into CED 2015 forecast 17