California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 2026

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 -2026 Revised Electricity Forecast: SMUD Service Territory December 17, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Demand Analysis Office Malachi. Weng-Gutierrez@energy. ca. gov 1

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary • Electricity consumption reduced only slightly compared to CEDU 2014 in the mid case because of higher projected population growth • Sales and peak forecasts are reduced compared to CEDU 2014 although differences in PV adoption not as dramatic as for IOUs • NCNC planning area grows fastest in California except for IID 2

California Energy Commission SMUD Baseline Electricity Consumption New mid case grows at a faster rate than CEDU 2014 at the start of the forecast period 3

California Energy Commission SMUD Baseline Electricity Sales More PV reduces sales growth to 1. 10% (2014 -2025) compared to 1. 27% in CEDU 2014 4

California Energy Commission SMUD Baseline Peak Demand Similar growth 2015 -25 in new mid case vs. CEDU 2014 mid case 5

California Energy Commission SMUD PV Energy Higher starting point, faster growth in new mid case vs. CEDU 2015 mid case 6

California Energy Commission SMUD PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Revised mid case corresponds to around 350 MW capacity in 2026 7

California Energy Commission SMUD Light-Duty EV Energy Corresponds to around 80, 000 EVs in 2026 in the mid case 8

California Energy Commission NCNC Committed Efficiency Around 3, 500 GWh savings from codes and standards in 2014 9

California Energy Commission Efficiency Programs: SMUD EM&V Adjustment Net effect: +5 GWh in 2014, +42 GWh in 2026 10

California Energy Commission Additional Impacts for SMUD • Climate change – 65 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 70 GWh in high case – 35 MW in 2026 in mid case, 45 MW in high case • Electrification: 15 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 30 GWh in high case 11

California Energy Commission NCNC Growth by Climate Zone: Electricity Consumption, 2014 -2026 Climate Zone High Case Mid Case Low Case SMUD Service Territory Turlock Irrigation District BANC not including SMUD 1. 59% 1. 55% 1. 43% 1. 36% 1. 24% 1. 19% 0. 97% 0. 80% 12

California Energy Commission NCNC Growth by Climate Zone: Peak Demand, 2015 -2026 Climate Zone High Case Mid Case Low Case SMUD Service Territory Turlock Irrigation District BANC not including SMUD 1. 45% 1. 73% 1. 49% 1. 14% 1. 37% 1. 20% 0. 42% 0. 64% 13

California Energy Commission SMUD AAEE Savings: Peak MW Year 2016 2020 2026 High-Low Mid-Mid Low-High 54 58 60 151 177 183 255 309 323 14

California Energy Commission SMUD AAEE Savings: GWh Year 2016 2020 2026 High-Low Mid-Mid Low-High 289 293 300 704 811 834 938 1, 155 1, 190 15

California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on SMUD Baseline Mid Case Sales, Mid AAEE Savings 16

California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on SMUD Baseline Mid Case Peak, Mid AAEE Savings 17