California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 2026

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016 -2026 Revised Electricity Forecast December 17, 2015 Chris Kavalec Energy Assessments Division Chris. Kavalec@energy. ca. gov (916) 654 -5184 1

California Energy Commission Summary, California Energy Demand 2016 -2026 Revised Forecast (CED 2015 Revised) • New geographic scheme • Baseline electricity consumption down significantly compared to the 2014 forecast update (CEDU 2014) because of new standards and adjustment to 2013 T 24 standards • Much greater decrease in electricity sales and peak demand because of higher PV projections • Includes AAEE savings for IOUs, LADWP, and SMUD for managed forecasts 2

California Energy Commission Overview of Statewide Results 3

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary: California Energy Demand Preliminary Forecast (CED 2015 Preliminary) • New geographic scheme • Electricity consumption down slightly compared to the 2014 forecast update because of lower EV forecast and update of standards impacts • Greater decrease in electricity sales and peak demand for IOUs because of higher PV projections • Baseline forecast only—no AAEE savings until revised forecast 4

California Energy Commission Three Baseline Demand Cases • High Demand Case: Higher economic and demographic growth, higher climate change impacts, EV high case, lower electricity rates, less self-generation • Low Demand Case: Lower economic and demographic growth, no climate change impacts, EV low case, higher electricity rates, more selfgeneration • Mid Demand Case: Assumptions in between the high and low demand cases 5

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline Electricity Consumption CED 2015 Revised Mid Case around 9, 000 GWh lower than CEDU 2014 by 2025 6

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline Electricity Sales CED 2015 Revised Mid Case almost 20, 000 GWH lower than CEDU 2014 by 2025 7

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline Noncoincident Peak CED 2015 Revised Mid Case around 7, 000 MW lower than CEDU 2014 by 2025 8

California Energy Commission Statewide Baseline Consumption per Capita CED 2015 Revised Mid and High Cases Increase Later in Forecast Period—EVs and Plugloads 9

California Energy Commission New Geographic Scheme 10

California Energy Commission Description of New Scheme • Planning areas correspond more closely to TAC areas and balancing authority areas • More forecasting zones (20); zones within California ISO developed to approximate transmission zones • Continued refinement of geographic granularity 11

California Energy Commission Old Planning Area Scheme Planning Areas in Green Revised • • PG&E SCE SDG&E SMUD LADWP IID Burbank/Glendale Pasadena 12

California Energy Commission Description of New Scheme • PG&E Planning Area becomes PG&E TAC Area • SCE Planning Area becomes SCE TAC Area • Northern California entities not in ISO and formerly in PG&E Planning Area combined with SMUD to give “Northern California Non. California ISO” (NCNC) • Other planning areas as before 13

California Energy Commission Planning Areas and Forecast Zones 14

California Energy Commission Forecast Geography: Planning Areas 15

California Energy Commission Forecast Geography: Forecast Zones 16

California Energy Commission Major Inputs/Assumptions 17

California Energy Commission Economic and Demographic Assumptions • High Demand Case: Global Insight Optimistic Scenario • Mid Demand Case: Moody’s Baseline Scenario • Low Demand Case: Moody’s Lower Long. Term Growth Scenario, DOF Population • Key differences from CEDU 2014 – Number of households and employment 18

California Energy Commission Statewide Number of Households New cases above CEDU 2014 19

California Energy Commission Statewide Non-Agricultural Employment New mid case 1 million above CEDU 2014 by 2025 20

California Energy Commission Self-Generation • Traditional electricity generation displaced by private supply used on-site – Small-scale adoptions (PV, SHW, etc. ) – Larger power plants • Residential and commercial adoptions based on predictive model – For CED 2015 Revised, residential PV modeled using actual load shapes and tiered rates for IOUs 21

California Energy Commission Statewide PV Energy Increase comes from residential, industrial, ag 22

California Energy Commission Statewide PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Revised Mid Case corresponds to around 12, 000 MW capacity in 2026 in mid case 23

California Energy Commission Electric Light-Duty Vehicles • New EV forecast for CED 2015 Revised • Mid demand case consistent with latest CARB “most likely” compliance scenario • Low case purely model driven • High case assumes faster decrease in EV prices vs. mid • Distributed to planning areas and climate zones through regression analysis 24

California Energy Commission Light-Duty EV Electricity Consumption Current estimate of consumption =~ 400 GWh 25

California Energy Commission Light-Duty EV Stock Total of BEV and PHEV 26

California Energy Commission Additional Electrification • Consultant study • Examined shore power, truck stops, airports, forklifts, truck refrigeration units • Based on current trends and CARB legislation • High, mid, and low cases • Staff determined what portion of electrification impacts were incremental to CED 2015 Revised 27

California Energy Commission Additional Electrification HSR additional 350 GWh in 2026 28

California Energy Commission Electricity Rate Cases • Developed with a new staff model, which uses a simultaneous equation framework to develop revenue requirements, allocate to rate classes, and calculate average rates • High, mid, and low cases developed by varying demand, carbon prices, and natural gas prices • Rates increase 10 -20% from 2014 -2026 in mid case 29

California Energy Commission Climate Change Impacts • Based on temperature scenarios developed by Scripps Institute of Oceanography • Incorporated in residential and commercial consumption forecasts through changes in degree days • Incorporated in peak forecast through increases in maximum temperatures • High case and mid case • Staff calculated median impact of two sets of scenarios 30

California Energy Commission Climate Change Impacts: Electricity Consumption Reflects net impact of more CDD, less HDD 31

California Energy Commission Climate Change Impacts: Peak Around 500 MW impact in mid case by 2026 32

California Energy Commission Demand Response • Forecast includes some “load-modifying” demand response (LMDR) – Non-event: Permanent Load Shifting, TOU – Event-based: Critical Peak Pricing, Peak-Time Rebates • Total impact of ~270 MW in 2026 • Future forecasts may include more LMDR depending on CPUC decisions • CEC-CPUC-ISO TOU analysis (not incorporated in forecast) 33

California Energy Commission Energy Efficiency 34

California Energy Commission Committed Efficiency • Implemented or approved codes and standards • Utility programs approved and funded • Price effects • CED 2015 Revised adds 2016 Appliance Standards, recently approved Federal Standards (including distribution transformer) – Cumulative impact of ~7, 500 GWh by 2026 35

California Energy Commission Cumulative Impacts of Committed Efficiency Relative to 1975 Benchmark 36

California Energy Commission Cumulative effect of committed codes and standards Total of 44, 000 GWh Savings in 2014 37

California Energy Commission Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency (AAEE) for IOUs • Based on 2015 CPUC Potential and Goals Study • Program savings accumulate starting in 2016 • Impacts of standards updates through 2016 Appliance Standards removed from Navigant results • Behavioral savings calculated as incremental to 2014 38

California Energy Commission AAEE Process • 9 initial scenarios pared down to 5 through stakeholder comments (DAWG) and direction by JASC – – – High IEPR Demand-Low AAEE Savings Mid IEPR Demand-Mid AAEE Savings Mid IEPR Demand-High AAEE Savings Low IEPR Demand-High AAEE Savings 39

California Energy Commission IOU AAEE Scenarios 40

California Energy Commission AAEE Process • 5 scenarios presented to DAWG • Main concern by stakeholders: high peak MW and MW/GWh ratios • Sources of MW issue: – Federal Distribution Transformer Standards: high peak/energy ratio – Removal of uncertainty factors used in 2013 for codes and standards—affected peak more than energy 41

California Energy Commission Process • Federal Distribution Transformer Standards: moved to baseline forecast—affects distribution losses • Reinsertion of uncertainty factors for codes and standards at 50 percent of 2013 levels 42

California Energy Commission IOU AAEE Scenario Results: Peak MW 4, 400 MW in Mid Baseline-Mid Savings Case in 2026 43

California Energy Commission IOU AAEE Scenario Results: GWh 18, 000 GWh in Mid Baseline-Mid Savings Case in 2026 44

California Energy Commission AAEE Estimates for POUs (LADWP and SMUD) • Programs: Based on POU potential studies translated into EE projections that become part of official planning forecast – Adjusted downward using realization rates from IOU 2010 -12 EM&V studies • Codes and standards estimated using similar method as in IOU potential study – Statewide C&S savings estimates downscaled based on size of POU • Three scenarios based on C&S 45

California Energy Commission POU AAEE Results: Peak MW ~900 MW for Mid Baseline-Mid Savings in 2026 46

California Energy Commission POU AAEE Results: GWh ~3, 500 GWh for Mid Baseline-Mid Savings in 2026 47

California Energy Commission Statewide AAEE Impacts: Peak MW ~5, 500 MW total AAEE for Mid Baseline-Mid Savings in 2026 48

California Energy Commission Statewide AAEE Impacts: Sales ~21, 000 GWh total AAEE for Mid Baseline-Mid Savings in 2026 49

California Energy Commission Next Steps • Stakeholder Comments • Possible minor revisions • Decision on IOU AAEE scenario(s) to use for planning purposes • Forecast adoption in January 2016 50

California Energy Commission Comments/Questions? 51