UNIVERSITY University OF of AVEIRO Aveiro City Case

UNIVERSITY University OF of. AVEIRO Aveiro City Case Overview Department of Environment and Planning University of Aveiro (Portugal) Ana Isabel Miranda and Carlos Borrego Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

An introduction. . . UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO The cities involved in SUTRA differ widely in terms of culture, environmental conditions , size, economic structure, social composition and demography. But. . . they face common challenges in their transportation systems: § Air quality § Traffic congestion § Employment § Economic competitiveness § Noise € §. . Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

An introduction. . . UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO A common methodology and a set of tools were used by SUTRA cities to generate directly comparable results for the overall evaluation. Indicator s Model s Scenarios Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

TOPICS TO BE COVERED UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application - baseline - common scenarios § Final comments Final Meeting and Project Review § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

The SUTRA cities UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description • location, urban structure and land-use • demography • meteo conditions and air pollution Gdansk • input indicators Geneva Genoa Thessaloniki § Models cascade application: Lisbon Tel. Aviv § Baseline § Common scenarios § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

Meteorological conditions and air pollution problems UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO GENOA § City case description § mild Mediterranean climate • location, urban structure and land-use § topographic and orographic peculiarity: sea and mountains affect pollutants dispersion • meteo conditions and air pollution LISBON • input indicators § complex sea breeze circulations § traffic NOx emissions represents 97% of total anthropogenic NOx emissions. THESSALONIKI § 45% of days characterized by stagnant conditions § high insolation Final Meeting and Project Review • demography § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

Demographic indicators Demographic changes are crucial to determine traffic demand Population size UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description • location, urban structure and land-use • demography Population size evolution • meteo conditions and air pollution • input indicators Age structure Population size for VISUM and OFIS domains § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

Economic indicators GDP per capita UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description • location, urban structure and land-use • demography • meteo conditions and air pollution • input indicators % of employment in services over total employment § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

Technological indicators passenger car peak occupancy rate % of public transport over total passenger transport UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description • location, urban structure and land-use • demography • meteo conditions and air pollution • input indicators § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Which scenarios? A baseline scenario (specific of each city) § City case description Common scenarios of development § Models cascade application: § Baseline VISUM TREM Which models? VADIS OFIS Final Meeting and Project Review § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS MARKAL § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

Common scenarios. . . definition Demography Young and virtuous Young and vicious Old and virtuous Economic srtructure €€ € Technology UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Land use § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL Old and vicious Final Meeting and Project Review § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VISUM transportation model § AREA: 241 km 2 § POPULATION: 635 201 . . . domain § N. NODES: 936 § POPULATION: -GENOA § N. LINKS: 888 § AREA: 2793 km 2 2 682 676 UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO -LISBON § City case description § N. NODES: 1124 § N. LINKS: 2940 § Models cascade application: TEL AVIV § Baseline § Common scenarios -GENEVA THESSALONIKI § VISUM § AREA: 1100 km 2 § TREM § POPULATION: § VADIS 894 435 § N. NODES: 1386 § N. LINKS: 2034 § OFIS § AREA: 1447 km 2 § POPULATION: § MARKAL 2 611 500 § N. NODES: 3144 § N. LINKS: 11850 § AREA: 282 km 2 § POPULATION: 413 585 § N. NODES: 936 § Main conclusions § N. LINKS: 2900 Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VISUM transportation model. . . input data UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Trips by purposes § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios OD matrixes § VISUM + § road category and capacity § maximum velocity allowed § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VISUM transportation model. . . results Results example: Lisbon public network UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VISUM transportation model. . . indicators Pressure indicator: passenger transport demand (pkm/year) UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios State indicator: time spent in crowding and traffic jams (hours) § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VISUM transportation model. . . methodology UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO A spreadsheet (Common. Scenarios. xls) was developed to modify the O/D matrixes according to the scenarios. § City case description The obtained results reflect the characteristics of each traffic network. § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL Ex. Genoa input data from the common scenario implementation Ex. Lisbon output data from the common scenario spreadsheet Final Meeting and Project Review § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VISUM transportation model. . . results and analysis Ex. Lisbon private network CS 1 –Young and virtuous CS 2 – Young and vicious UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios CS 3 – Old and virtuous CS 4 – Old and vicious § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VISUM transportation model. . . results and analysis UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL Ex. Comparison of scenarios results for private transport in Geneva Final Meeting and Project Review § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

TREM emissions model. . . domain and input data For every city-case TREM domain coincides with VISUM domain. UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description Main inputs required by TREM: § traffic volume and vehicle speed (provided by VISUM) § Models cascade application: § distribution of vehicles by categories § Common scenarios § distribution of vehicles by classes § Baseline § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL ex. Gdansk Final Meeting and Project Review § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

TREM emissions model . . . results UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description Hourly variation of CO emissions for Lisbon (Prata and Ouro streets) § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS CO emission for Genoa domain § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

TREM emissions model. . . indicators UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

TREM emissions model. . . scenarios input data Main inputs in TREM scenario application: § technological indicators § new technologies penetration rates § vehicle fleet changes § fuel properties § VISUM outputs § vehicle volume § vehicle speed Ex. Fleet composition for different scenarios Final Meeting and Project Review UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

TREM emissions model. . . results and analysis Ex. Genoa CO emissions CS 1 –Young and virtuous CS 2 – Young and vicious UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios CS 3 – Old and virtuous CS 4 – Old and vicious § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

TREM emissions model Ex. Thessaloniki results . . . results and analysis UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS Only CO 2 emissions for Scenario 2 represent values above the reference situation. All other pollutants are expected to decrease primary due to emission reduction technologies and low sulphur levels in gasoline and diesel. Final Meeting and Project Review § MARKAL § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VADIS local scale model . . . domain UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VADIS local scale model. . . input data UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Buildings volumetry § City case description § Models cascade application: Geneva Genoa Lisbon Meteorological data § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS Emission data (provided by TREM) Final Meeting and Project Review § MARKAL Wind velocity and direction for Lisbon simulation § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VADIS local scale model UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO . . . results § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS Wind and CO dispersion fields for Lisbon for 6 p. m. of 8 th of July 1997 Final Meeting and Project Review Wind and CO dispersion simulation for Thessaloniki for 7 a. m. of 9 September 1998 § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VADIS local scale model. . . results and analysis Ex. Lisbon CO dispersion fields CS 1 –Young and virtuous CS 2 – Young and vicious UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios CS 3 – Old and virtuous CS 4 – Old and vicious § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VADIS local scale. . results and analysis UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Ex. Lisbon results § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS European Legislation CO - 10000 µg. m-3 (8 -hours average limit value) § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VADIS local scale model. . results and analysis UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Ex. Lisbon results § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS European Legislation NO 2 - 200 µg. m-3 (not exceeding more than 18 times in a year) Hourly value for the protection of human health Final Meeting and Project Review § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

VADIS local scale model. . results and analysis Ex. Lisbon results UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL European Legislation PM 10 - 50 µg. m-3 (not exceeding more than 35 times in a year) Daily maximum value for the protection of human health Final Meeting and Project Review § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

OFIS photochemical model. . . domain GDANSK UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO TEL AVIV § City case description GENEVA § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios GENOA § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § AREA: 150 km x 150 km Final Meeting and Project Review THESSALONIKI § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

OFIS photochemical model. . . input data UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Main inputs required by OFIS: § City case description § emissions: hourly non-urban , suburban and urban emissions rates § Models cascade application: § meteorological data: daily average wind speed and direction, temperature and temperature lapse rate above the mixing layer § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § boundary conditions: daily average regional background concentrations (NO, NO 2, O 3 and other species) § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

OFIS photochemical model. . . results UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Number of days with maximum 8 hour running average ozone concentration exceeding 120 g. m-3 (IND 120). § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

OFIS photochemical model. . . indicato UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios AOT 60 (maximum and average) § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL Final Meeting and Project Review AOT 60 (suburbs and town), § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

OFIS photochemical model. . . results and analysis CS 1 –Young and virtuous UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO CS 2 –Young and vicious § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline CS 3 –Old and virtuous GENEVA § Common scenarios CS 4 –Old and vicious Ozone § VISUM AOT 60 § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

OFIS photochemical model. . . results and analysis Lisbon Indicators UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § City case description §Only Scenario 3 presents different results § Scenario 3 indicators are higher due to lower ozone consumption pollutants § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios Thessaloniki Indicators § Significant differences between scenarios § Scenario 1 presents the highest results § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

MARKAL . . . domain techno-economic energy model UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO LISBON § City case description § Lisbon municipality § 82 km 2 § Models cascade application: THESSALON IKI § Baseline § Common scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § Thessaloniki municipality + 18 municipalities and 2 communes § MARKAL § Main conclusions § 1100 km 2 Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

MARKAL . . . input data Main inputs required by MARKAL: energy model techno-economic § City case UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § imported energy prices description § demand data § Models cascade application: § residual capacities § Baseline § techno-economic data § Common scenarios § input/output coeficients § pollutants emissions associated with technologies § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Ex. html file for input data Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

MARKAL . . . results techno-economic energy model UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Lisbon Installed capacity in the private transport sector § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Common scenarios Lisbon Installed capacity in the public transport sector § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

MARKAL . . . methodology techno-economic energy model UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Lisbon application: § The inclusion of MARKAL in the models cascade is in progress, trying to use VISUM outputs as MARKAL scenarios input. § A simple exercise was carried out, with a new strategy in order to calculate MARKAL inputs for different scenarios § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline § Scenarios § VISUM § TREM Two environmental constraints were considered: § reduction of ozone precursors § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § reduction of CO 2 emissions in conformity with Kyoto/Marrakech agreements § Main conclusions Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

MARKAL . . . results and analysis UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO Lisbon results for private transport CS 1 –Young and virtuous CS 2 – Young and vicious § City case description § Models cascade application: § Baseline CS 3 – Old and virtuous CS 4 – Old and vicious § Scenarios § VISUM § TREM § VADIS § OFIS § MARKAL § When comparing installed capacity, only for the Scenario 3 this parameter decreases § Clean technologies (fuel cell and hydrogen) are significant only for CS 1 Final Meeting and Project Review § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

Some final comments UNIVERSITY OF AVEIRO § The Old and Virtuous City (Scenario 3) seems to be the best choice, but it is linked to a shrinking and getting older citty. § City case description § The produced indicators allow a easy and practical analysis of the scenario results § Models cascade application: §MARKAL was used to generate baseline and also common scenarios allowing to test the technological, economical and energetic approach § Baseline § This complex approach was not completely feasible for all the cities, due to several constraints (data availability, model specificity, . . . ) § Genoa, Lisbon and Thessaloniki are successful city-cases: the model cascade was applied for the baseline and for the 4 common scenarios Final Meeting and Project Review § Common scenarios § Main conclusions 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk