United States Department of Agricultures Weather And Climate

United States Department of Agriculture’s Weather And Climate Information System for Operational Applications in Agriculture by Ray Motha and Robert Stefanski

Overview of Presentation • Description of JAWF • Examples of Applications – Routine and Special Assessments – Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin – Supply and Demand Estimates – Drought Monitor – Mississippi State Weather Network • Conclusions World Agricultural Outlook Board

Background Information • The World Agricultural Outlook Board has the operational responsibility for monitoring and analyzing the impact of global weather on agriculture. • This activity is conducted at the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF). • The JAWF is a cooperative effort between the U. S. Department of Agriculture and the National Weather Service (NWS) of the U. S. Department of Commerce. World Agricultural Outlook Board

USDA Situation and Outlook Organizational Structure Secretary/Deputy Secretary Chief Economist WAOB Chairperson Chief Meteorologist/ Joint Agricultural Weather Facility Interagency Agricultural Projections Coordinator Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees Chaired by WAOB Senior Analysts Grains Livestock Fibers Oilseeds World Agricultural Outlook Board Specialty Crops

JAWF’s Primary Mission To routinely collect global weather data and agricultural information to determine the impact of growing season weather conditions on crops and livestock production prospects. World Agricultural Outlook Board

JAWF’s Main Responsibilities • Directly advise the Office of the Chief Economist and the Secretary of Agriculture on weather related agricultural developments. • Publish the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. • To routinely provide crop-weather assessments for monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lockup report. • Disseminate global weather data to other agencies within USDA. World Agricultural Outlook Board

U. S. Dept. of Commerce U. S. Dept. of Agriculture NOAA WAOB National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration World Agricultural Outlook Board National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center International Crop Information NASS National Agricultural Statistics Service Domestic Crop Statistics Global Weather Data JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Web site http: //www. usda. gov/oce/waob/jawf World Agricultural Outlook Board

DAILY GLOBAL SURFACE WEATHER DATA 8000 Worldwide Weather Stations World Meteorological Organization Global Weather Telecommunications System US National Weather Service Washington, D. C. World Agricultural Outlook Board

US National Weather Service Washington, D. C. • River Forecast Stations • Snotel (USDA/NRCS) • Cooperative Network • Global Hourly Data (NOAAPORT) Additional Data Sources • US SCAN Data • Mexico • South Africa • Australia (SILO) JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY JAWF maintains an operational archive of historical daily data for rapid retrieval World Agricultural Outlook Board

Users of JAWF’s Information • • Government decision makers (National & State) Ag Analysts (Gov’t and private) Extension agents Farmers Farming Community (Markets) Media (Newspaper, Radio) General Public World Agricultural Outlook Board

Scope of Products • Tactical Ag Weather Products (Short-term) – Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WWCB) – JAWF in Stoneville, Mississippi (Weather Data) – Routine & Special Assessments • Strategic Ag Weather Products (Long-term) – Drought Monitor – Supply/Demand Estimates – National and International Monitoring (WWCB) World Agricultural Outlook Board

Routine and Special Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

Routine Operational Assessments • Morning US Weather Update • Daily Highlights of Agricultural Developments • USDA Secretary Briefing (Weekly) – Highlight Relevant Weather Impacts for USDA Secretary & Top Staff • Global Weather Briefing for USDA Analysts (weekly) • Media (TV, Radio, Print) & Public Contacts World Agricultural Outlook Board

JAWF Products • Data Plots (many time periods) • Time series accumulations – Daily & weekly – Rainfall, temperature, growing degree days • Weekly & monthly contour analyses • Rankings • Analog seasons World Agricultural Outlook Board

JAWF Products • Derived Parameters – Phenology – Moisture parameters (Palmer Drought Index, Soil Moisture Models) • Crop assessments • El Nino/La Nina Impacts World Agricultural Outlook Board

ARGENTINA – CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CORDOBA Cumulative Precipitation (mm) 70 60 Day Summary: 60 August 9 – October 7 2003: Deficit of 56 mm (13% of normal) 2002: Deficit of 25 mm (61% of normal) 50 Normal 40 2002 30 20 Still too dry; crops heading to grain fill 10 2003 Au g Au -9 g. Au 11 g 1 Au 3 g. Au 15 g 1 Au 7 g 1 Au 9 g. Au 21 g 2 Au 3 g. Au 25 g 2 Au 7 g 2 Au 9 g 3 Se 1 p 2 Se p. Se 4 p 6 Se p Se -8 p. Se 10 p 1 Se 2 p. Se 14 p 1 Se 6 p 1 Se 8 p. Se 20 p 2 Se 2 p. Se 24 p 2 Se 6 p 2 Se 8 p 30 O ct -2 O ct -4 O ct -6 0 Date Normal World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility 2003 2002

ARGENTINA – CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CORDOBA Daily Temperature Values (C) 40 August 9 – October 7, 2003 35 Unseasonably warm 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Au g Au -9 g. Au 11 g 1 Au 3 g. Au 15 g 1 Au 7 g 1 Au 9 g. Au 21 g 2 Au 3 g. Au 25 g 2 Au 7 g 2 Au 9 g 3 Se 1 p 2 Se p. Se 4 p 6 Se p Se -8 p. Se 10 p 1 Se 2 p. Se 14 p 1 Se 6 p 1 Se 8 p. Se 20 p 2 Se 2 p. Se 24 p 2 Se 6 p 2 Se 8 p 30 O ct -2 O ct -4 O ct -6 -5 Date (2003) Max World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility Min Tnorm

2003 - Driest in the past 25 years

WAOB GIS Specifications • Hardware – Pentium IV desktop computers • Processing speed 1. 8 GHz • 512 MB RAM • Windows 2000 operating system – Oracle database • Software – Arc. View 3. 2 – Spatial Analyst 2. 0 extension – Arc. GIS 9. x software World Agricultural Outlook Board

Data • Operational Weather – domestic: synoptic, cooperative observer – international: World Meteorological Org. • Special Weather – tropical cyclone – mesonetwork (e. g. , FAWN, SNOTEL) • Agricultural – historical crop production – observed crop progress and condition – historical livestock inventory World Agricultural Outlook Board

1. Daily Plot Maps - display raw WMO data - “quick look” analyses - automated using Avenue - maps exported as JPEGs

2. Shaded Contour Maps - color contour WMO data - enhanced version of Daily Plot Avenue script - maps exported as WMF

3. Crop Area Maps - NASS county-level data - delineate major crop areas - production data normalized and ranked - crop shapefiles created - maps exported as JPEGs

4. Crop Progress/Condition Maps - weekly NASS data obtained from web - identify wx-sensitive growth stages - VBA application formats data - data imported/displayed in Arc. View - PDFs generated

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

Credit for each product

http: //www. usda. gov/agency/oce/waob/jawf/

World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (Lockup) World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

Supply / Demand Equation Beginning Stocks + Imports + Production Domestic Use + Exports + Supply Demand Ending Stocks Change in one component affects others Supply / Demand Estimates for Grains - Soybeans - Cotton - Livestock - Sugar Estimates Revised Monthly

Goals of USDA’s Outlook Information System • Objectivity – Provide unbiased information • Reliability – Based on sound data and analysis • Timeliness – Fast flow to users

Attaché Reports Official Country Reports U. S. and World Weather USDA’s Economic Intelligence System Travel Reports Economic and Trend Analysis Remote Sensing

USDA’s Economic Intelligence System National Agricultural Statistics Service Joint Agricultural Weather Facility Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin Foreign Agricultural Service Economic Research Service World Agricultural Outlook Board Farm Service Agency Long-term Baseline Projections Domestic Production and Stocks Estimates FAS Commodity Circulars World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates World Agricultural Outlook Board ERS Situation and Outlook Reports

Assessing El Niño / La Niña Crop Weather Impacts Care must be taken to avoid generalizations during ENSO events. World Agricultural Outlook Board

Assessing El Niño / La Niña Crop Weather Impacts Moderate to strong: El Niño La Niña Impacts are rarely the same between events. World Agricultural Outlook Board

Drought Monitor World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

U. S. Drought Monitor • A Blend of Science and Subjectivity – Climate indices – Numerical models – Input from regional and local experts • Published Weekly • Nine Authors – NDMC, USDA, CPC, NCDC – 2 -3 week shifts as the product lead author • Droughts are generally slow to emerge and recede – Classifications usually change one level per week

The Drought Monitor is a state-of-the art blend of science and subjectivity !

Operations of the Joint Agricultural Weather and Data Center MSU/DREC USDA/ARS USDA/OCE/WAOB and MSU/DREC in Stoneville, Mississippi World Agricultural Outlook Board

Location Mississippi Delta counties (20) shaded in blue.

Background • Established in 1998 to fill gaps in the national weather data collection system, making specialized agricultural weather data available to research and production agriculture. • DREC-Weather/GIS section serves the local needs of the Mississippi delta. • WAOB’s Agricultural Weather Data Center has a regional focus, partnering with other institutions engaged in ag-weather activities. World Agricultural Outlook Board

Partnerships • JAWF • USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) • Mississippi State University • University of Missouri • Alabama A&M University • Iowa State University- Ag Climate Network • Oklahoma Mesonet • National Weather Service - COOP Modernization • Regional Climate Centers World Agricultural Outlook Board

Network Locations World Agricultural Outlook Board

Delta Weather Network • Parameters Measured (vary by type of site) – – – – – Air Temperature Precipitation Relative Humidity Wind Speed and Direction Solar Radiation Evaporation Barometric Pressure Soil Temperature at 2”, 4”, 8”, 20”, and 40” Soil Moisture at 2”, 4”, 8”, 20”, and 40” World Agricultural Outlook Board

SCAN NETWORK Soil Climate Analysis Network World Agricultural Outlook Board

Meteor Burst Communications World Agricultural Outlook Board

SCAN Site World Agricultural Outlook Board

National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Site in Stoneville. Anemometer Thermometer Housing Rain Gauge Pan Evaporator World Agricultural Outlook Board

Data Dissemination • DREC web site - interactive http: //www. deltaweather. msstate. edu/ • WAOB field office web site http: //www. usda. gov/oce/waob/mississippi/fieldoffice. html • Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin World Agricultural Outlook Board

PRODUCTS and Services • Climate Services • Planting Recommendations • Crop Growth Simulation models for rice and cotton • • Expert advice on weather instrumentation Irrigation scheduling GIS applications Weather Briefings World Agricultural Outlook Board

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Conclusions World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

Lessons Learned • Don’t promise too much to quickly. • Relate the weather data to meaningful agricultural information. • Don’t oversell the information. • Establish credibility slowly but surely. • Implement new products with proper introduction.

Lessons Learned • Be proactive in demonstrating the usefulness of your products. • Relate the weather data to meaningful agricultural information. • Training and education is an essential component. • Strive to pool resources.

Final Thoughts • What information does the user need? • When does the user need this information? • To answer these questions, there must be an established mechanism …. …. between users & producers.