Global Warming Weather Climate and Society CLIM 101
Global Warming: Weather, Climate and Society CLIM 101 // Fall 2015 George Mason University Are Humans Responsible for Global Climate Change? 1 October, 2015 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Humans Responsible for Global Climate Change? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increasing in the atmosphere? • Do human activities increase GHG in the atmosphere? • Is global mean temperature increasing? • Does increase in GHG cause global warming? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increasing in the atmosphere? • Do human activities increase GHG? • Is global mean temperature increasing? • Does increase in GHG cause global warming? • Yes to all four questions suggests (but does not prove) that human activities could be responsible for global warming. • To prove, we must assess and evaluate projections of future climate (IPCC). CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increasing in the atmosphere? • Do human activities increase GHG in the atmosphere? • Is global mean temperature increasing? • Does increase in GHG cause global warming? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
(Net) Global Warming 1. Increasing GHG (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) • • CO 2: Carbon Dioxide : Emission from fossil fuel CH 4: Methane : Agriculture (livestock) N 2 O: Nitrous Oxide : Agriculture (soil management) CFC: Chlorofluorocarbon 2. Land use change Cooling 1. Aerosols • • • Man made/Natural Volcanoes IPCC(2013): CO 2 in ATM increase from 1750 – 2012: 40% Rate of increase fastest in 22, 000 years CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Greenhouse Gas Concentration and Global Warming Potential (GWP) CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Unit of measurement of Carbon Emission Metric tons of carbon (1 metric ton = 1. 1 English ton = 2200 lb) note that we only count the mass of carbon atom in CO 2 If M is molecular weight M(C) = 12 M(O 2) = 32 M(CO 2) = 44 M(C)/M(CO 2) = 12/44 = 0. 27 For example, US emissions of 5. 5 billion metric tons of CO 2 in 2013 is equivalent to 1. 49 billion metric tons of carbon. Energy is measured in many different units, e. g. BTU and k. W-hr: BTU = British Thermal Unit 1 million BTU = 293 Kilowatt-hours CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Unit of measurement of Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration The present (2012) concentration is ~400 parts per million (ppm): fraction of molecules 400 CO 2 molecules for each million air molecules 0. 40 CO 2 molecules for each thousand air molecules 0. 040% of the air molecules are CO 2 (0. 00040) [similar to 40 cents per $1000] Has increased from 315 ppm in 1958 to 400 ppm in 2014, which is an increase of 27% in 54 years CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Per Capita Emissions of the US and the World http: //www. epa. gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/global-ghg-emissions. html United States: In 2013, U. S. greenhouse gas emissions totaled 6, 673 million metric tons (14. 7 trillion pounds) of carbon dioxide equivalent. US Population (2013): 316. 5 million US Per Capita Emissions (2013): 6673/316. 5 = 21 tons per year World: In 2010, estimated worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities (including land use change) totaled nearly 46 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. World Population (2010): 6. 9 billion World Per Capita Emissions (2010): 46/6. 9 = 6. 7 tons per year The total mass of CO 2 in the atmosphere (3, 000 Gt. CO 2). CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Global CO 2 Emissions • In 2012, global emissions were about 35 billion tons of CO 2 • Per capita, emission (35/7 billion people) = 5 tons/per capita/yr What is 5 tons of CO 2 per year? • Drive 10, 000 miles with a car that gets 30 miles per gallon • Fly 10, 000 miles • 300 KWH per month of electricity from coal fired plant • 600 KWH per month of electricity from natural gas fired plant (suburban DC-area house: 400 -600 KWH in March) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Carbon Footprint CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Monthly Mean Carbon Dioxide NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios determined from the continuous monitoring programs at the 4 NOAA CMDL baseline observations. Principal investigator: Dr. Pieter Tans. NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. Boulder, Colorado. (303) 497 -6678 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
CO 2 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014 14
Methane (CH 4) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014 15
Evidence for Human-induced Changes in GHGs (Overwhelmingly convincing!) ※Rate of increase of GHG is largest in 10, 000 years CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Changes in Greenhouse Gases From Ice Age to Modern Data CO 2 N 2 O CH 4 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Increase of Greenhouse Gases is unprecedented • The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800, 000 years. CO 2 concentrations have increased by 40% since preindustrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO 2, causing ocean acidification. CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Total Emissions Per Capita Emissions CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Energy-related CO 2 Emissions by Region Int. Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook Special Report CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Emissions for Top 5 Emitting Countries and the EU CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014 Env. Assessment Agency Netherlands
Cumulative CO 2 Emissions, Emissions to 2005 1850 -2002 USA 27. 8% Country USA EU-25 Russia China Germany U. K. Japan France India % of World (Rank) 29. 3 (1) 26. 5 (2) 8. 1 (3) 7. 6 (5) 7. 3 (5) 6. 3 (6) 4. 1 (7) 2. 9 (8) 2. 2 (9) Developed 76 Developing 24 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Cumulative Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Cumulative CO 2 Emissions since 1979 (gigatons) CO 2 Emissions since 1979 800 700 US since '79 500 China since '79 Europe since '79 400 Eurasia/FSU since '79 Japan since '79 300 India since '79 Others since '79 200 100 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Billions of metric tons 600 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Cumulative CO 2 Emissions (1850 -2011) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
CO 2 Emissions in Billions of metric ton/year CO 2 Emissions 35 Billions of metric tons/years 30 25 United States China 20 Europe Eurasia/FSU 15 Japan India 10 Others 5 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 0 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas (IPCC, 2007) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
U. S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 -2013 (million metric tons of CO 2 equivalent) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increasing in the atmosphere? • Do human activities increase GHG in the atmosphere? • Is global mean temperature increasing? • Does increase in GHG cause global warming? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
World primary energy consumption by fuel type • Mtoe = Millions tonnes oil equivalen • Large hydro and geothermal energy are relatively static. • Wind and solar are growing most rapidly, but from a very low base. CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source (IPCC, 2007) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
CO 2 Emissions From Fossil Fuel Burning (Million Metric Tons, MMT) (Agriculture, Cement, Deforestation, not included) http: //www. eia. doe. gov 1980 (%) 2011 (%) US 4776 (26) 5491 (17) 169, 771 Europe 4680 (25) 4305 (13) 143, 861 India 291 (2) 1725 (5) 27, 303 China 1448 (8) 8715 (27) 112, 816 World 18, 433 32, 579 1979 -2011 753, 900 2012: Estimated total CO 2 (equivalent) emissions ~ 50 Billion Tons Dec. 2015: Le Bourget (a suburb of Paris) will host the UN world summit for treaty to reduce emissions. CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
US Primary Energy Consumption by Source & Sector, 2011 97. 3 X 1015 BTU 28. 5 X 106 MW-hr CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
U. S. CO 2 Emissions by Source 2013 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
U. S. Methane Emissions by Source 2013 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
U. S. Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) Emissions by Source 2013 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
U. S. Fluorinated Gas Emissions by Source 2013 HFC: Hydrofluorocarbon; PFC: Perfluorocarbon NF 3: Nitrogen Trifluoride; SF 6: Sulfur Hexafluoride CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
How much do different forms of transportation contribute? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Primary Energy Consumption 2006 (US) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Virginia’s Electricity Generation CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Virginia Energy Production – Sources (2013) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Virginia Energy Consumption Sectors (2012) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Virginia Energy Consumption Sources (2013) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Center of Ocean-Land. Atmosphere studies CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increasing in the atmosphere? • Do human activities increase GHG in the atmosphere? • Is global mean temperature increasing? • Does increase in GHG cause global warming? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Global Warming & CO 2 Base period 1900 -99; data from NOAA CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Global Warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near surface air and oceans since the mid-20 th century and its projected continuation. (Wikipedia) Global Land-Ocean Temperature (1880 -2014) Annual Mean 5 -year Mean Relative to the 1951 -1980 mean (GISS, New York) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increasing in the atmosphere? • Do human activities increase GHG in the atmosphere? • Is global mean temperature increasing? • Does increase in GHG cause global warming? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Q: Is the observed global warming due to observed changes in GHG? • IPCC, through a rigorous scientific process of observations and climate modeling, has demonstrated that the global mean temperature and GHG are increasing (observations); increases in GHG cause global warming (climate modeling); and therefore concluded that humans are responsible for the observed global warming in the past century. CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
IPCC AR 5 Working Group I: Summary for Policy Makers Headlines, 30 September 2013 Humans are Causing Climate Change • Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. • It is extremely likely (95%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20 th century. CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Influence of Anthropogenic forcings (IPCC 2013) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Natural Forcing cannot explain observations Observations Predictions with Anthropogenic/Natural forcings Predictions with Natrual forcings 1. 0º C IPCC 2007 Center of Ocean-Land. Atmosphere studies CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Natural Forcing cannot explain observations IPCC 2013 CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Are Human Activities Responsible for Recent Climate Change? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increasing in the atmosphere? YES • Do human activities increase GHG? YES • Is global mean temperature increasing? YES • Does increase in GHG cause global warming? YES Therefore, YES, human activities are responsible for recent global warming CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Anthropocene: The Human Age • The 'Anthropocene' is a term widely used to denote a new geological epoch that recognizes humanity’s impact on the planet, in which many geologically and environmentally significant conditions and processes are profoundly altered by human activities. CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
THANK YOU! ANY QUESTIONS? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Energy Consumption 100 MW-hr (11. 4 k. W) 50 MW-hr CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Which countries are emitting the most greenhouse gases? Total emissions Per capita emissions CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
What is a scientific method to determine whether the humans are responsible for climate change? • 1. Build a ‘credible’ numerical model of the Earth’s climate based on laws of physics, chemistry and biology. • 2. Insert human influences in the model and compare the simulated model results with and without human influences. • Q: What is a credible model? • A: A model that simulates the mean and the variability of the current climate. • Q: How do you insert human influences in a model? • A: Change the values of CO 2 and Other GHG in the models as caused by the human activities. CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Fraction of the CO 2 emitted by human activities which remains in the atmosphere airborne fraction = atm / (fossil fuel + cement + land use emissions) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Influence of Anthropogenic forcings (IPCC 2013) CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (India) Sharma et. al (2008); PM Council (2008) • GHG (1994) = CO 2 (63%) + CH 4 (33%) + N 2 O (4%) = CO 2 Eq • GHG = CO 2 Eq unit: Million Metric Tons (Mt) • Year 1990 1994 2000 2004 2020 GHG 998 1228 1484 1748 3000 Rate of Increase 2000 -2004 (GHG): 4. 2% per year CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Renewable Electric Power Generation CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Solar Biomass Wind Geothermal Renewable Energy Water Hydrogen & Fuel Cells CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
Total known fossil fuel deposits: 4500 Gt. C CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
How much do different activities contribute? CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
2020: Projections for CO 2 Emissions (India, USA) • USA: 20% below 2004; 4. 7 Gt; (4. 7/338. 4 M) ~ 14 tons/person • India: 72% above 2004; 3 Gt; (3/1332 M) ~ 2. 3 tons/person 2050: Projections for CO 2 Emissions (India, USA) • USA: 50% below 2004: 2. 9 Gt; (2. 9/404 M) • India: 2% increase 2020 -2050; 5. 4 Gt; (5. 4/1620 M) ~ 3. 3 tons/person ~7. 2 tons/person 3% increase 2020 -2050; 7. 3 Gt; (7. 3/1620 M) ~ 4. 5 tons/person CLIM 101 // Global Warming, Weather, Climate and Society // Fall 2014
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