The Fathers Day 2007 Intrusion At Kilauea Chickens

The Father’s Day 2007 Intrusion At Kilauea: Chickens, Eggs, Dikes, And Slow Earthquakes Ben Brooks James Foster, Cecily Wolfe David Sandwell , David Myer Mike Poland, Matt Patrick, Paul Okubo

So What ? l Slow Earthquakes Being Recognized as Fundamental Part of the Seismic Cycle Cascadia, Japan, Mexico, Alaska, San Andreas, Hawaii l Periodicity Observed Cascadia, Mexico, Hawaii l No General Theory for Slow Earthquakes and/or Periodicity Rate & State Friction RSF modified by climatic fluctuations (Lowry, 2006) l TODAY’s TALK: Review Kilauea Deformation and Slow Earthquakes Father’s Day Intrusion and Evidence For Slow Earthquake Stress Modeling Explanation for Periodicity Due to Constant Stressing Rate

Cascadia Slow Earthquakes From Rogers&Dragert, 2003 From Miller et al. , 2002

Seismicity (<10 km) & CGPS Deformation 1997 -2005 Kilauea Caldera Z ER SW RZ HP Hilina Slump

The Hilina Slump From Morgan et al. , 2003 Owen et al, 2000 - Stable Sliding of Entire Decollement Cayol et al. , 2000 - Decollement Locked seaward of EQs

Competing Models Cayol et al. 2000: EXPLAINS SEISMICITY

Magmatism & Stress Dsc = t + msn From Cayol et. al, 2000

Time Series 774+/-7 Next SE Expected March 17, 2007

Slow Earthquakes: 2 Families Triggered Seismicity

Earthquake Counts – Western Events From Brooks et. al, 2006

Possible SE Sources & Triggered Seismicity From Brooks et. al, 2006

Coulomb Failure Stress from Slow Earthquakes From Segall et. al, 2000 BACKGROUND STRESSES ARE NEGLECTED

From Wolfe et. al, submitted

Earthquake Relocations From Wolfe et. al, submitted

Relocations: Cross Sections From Wolfe et. al, submitted

USGS & NSF Experiment: Feb – July, 2007 (USGS, UH, U Wisconsin, Stanford)

ALOS: Line of Sight

Competing Models

Competing Models Far-field residuals close to zero

Slow Earthquakes & Dikes

Competing Models

Vertical Results

Vertical Results: June 2007

Tilt Meters

Periodic Slow Earthquake Comparison Guerrero data courtesy T. Lowry

Guerrero Kilauea Cascadia From Sykes & Menke, 2006

An Explanation for Why and When ? WAOP UWEV AHUP NUPM HALR KTPM

ERZ OPENING (1998 -Present) (Cortesy Katie Phillips, Dave Chadwell, SCRIPPS)

Stress Models

Constant Stressing Rate SE

Complete Stressing Cycle

So What ? l Father’s Day intrusion triggered another Slow Earthquake at Kilauea l Delayed, but still the most regular faulting event ever observed instrumentally (I think) l The Cayol et al. (2000) model combined with a constant stressing rate provides a simple explanation of periodicity l What’s next? Hope for a rate change along East Rift Zone to test the constant stressing rate hypothesis