Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with

Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with an Emphasis on Climate William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP With contributions from many EMC Staff…… Regional Climate February 2011 1

The EMC Mission…. . In response to operational requirements: § Develop and Enhance numerical guidance – Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via: 45% • Scientific upgrades • Optimization • Additional observations § Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations – Transform & integrate 30% • Code • Algorithms • Techniques – Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation § Maintain operational model suite – The scientific correctness and integrity of 25% operational forecast modeling systems – Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes EMC location within the funnel Regional Climate February 2011 2

NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months Hours Minutes • Dispersion Models for DHS Tsunami vir on me nt h En He alt yst em os n Ec cre ati o ure l ric ult tro on Ag ir C vo Re ser Re r po dro nin Hy y. P lan En erg we g e erc mm Co Mg m cy en erg Em e. W era tio Fir Op ace Sp t ns eat he r e tim Ma ri n tio Av ia rty Benefits pe Warnings & Alert Coordination Real Time Ocean Forecast System • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Waves Hurricane WRF & GFDL • North American Mesoscale Space Weather • Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Days Pro Watches 1 Week e& Forecasts • Climate Forecast System • North American Ensemble Forecast System • Global Forecast System 2 Week Lif Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Guidance Regional Climate February 2011 3

Production Suite on Supercomputer January 2010 Number of Nodes Development Work Fence High Water Mark 00 06 12 18 Time of the day (utc) Regional Climate February 2011 4

Production Suite on Supercomputer December 2010 Number of Nodes Development Work Fence High Water Mark 00 06 12 Capacity Change: Time of the day (utc) 50% increase in production 80% decrease in development 18 Regional Climate February 2011 5

Development Work on Supercomputer Number of Nodes December 2010 00 06 12 18 Time of the day (utc) Regional Climate February 2011 6

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, Mitch Goldberg Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 91, Issue 8, pp 1015 -1057. doi: 10. 1175/2010 BAMS 3001. 1 Regional Climate February 2011 7

Regional Climate February 2011 8

Advancement of Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned for Q 2 FY 11 Attribute Operational (Since 2004) Jan 2011 Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO 2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag MOM-3: 60 N-65 S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m 2 -level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice Daily 30 minutes Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Ocean model Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation Sea ice Coupling Data assimilation Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3 -6) 2011 Regional Climate February 9

Operational Configuration for the Climate Forecast System V 2 (FY 11) A total of 16 CFS runs every day – 4 runs @ 9 months length – 3 runs @ 1 season – 9 runs @ 45 days 0 UTC 6 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 9 Month Seasonal 45 Day Regional Climate February 2011 10

Preliminary Analysis Shows Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSV 2 WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar CFS Operational Skill CFS V 2 Days WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec CFS Operational Skill CFS V 2 Days Regional Climate February 2011 11

Increasing Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems Forecast Nino 3. 4 SST Anomalies from CFS • Climate: Multi-Model Ensemble possibilities – International MME products (with EUROSIP) – NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL Climate Model+NCAR CSM • Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) – GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Probability of Temperature over 30 C over 24 hour period (7 day forecast valid Sept 3 -4, 2009) • Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts – WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM Regional Climate February 2011 12

Land-Hydrology Team Mission • Improve EMC Forecast Model performance and skill via land-surface component: – NAM/WRF, HWRF, GFS, CFSRR/GLDAS, NARR (including NDAS and GDAS) • Land model physics (Noah LSM): surface fluxes, soil, vegetation, snowpack, sfclayer/PBL • Land surface characteristics: Vegetation cover, soil type, albedo, emissivity, roughness, etc • Land state initial conditions: soil moisture & temp, snowpack • Climate Service Products (CPPA): – NLDAS soil moisture analysis/monitoring/prediction for NIDIS (drought) – NLDAS soil moisture seasonal predictions – CEOP (Global Model intercomparisons among NWP centers; GEWEX program) 11 Regional Climate February 2011 13

EXTREMES: Monthly total column soil moisture anomalies and model spread (mm/month) June 1998 – drought year Large similarity and small spread July 1993 – flood year Similar characteristics and large spread Regional Climate February 2011 14

Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) – Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using Example surface currents from MMAB parallel • Daily initialization from NAVO. • GFS forcing. • Daily 7 -8 day run with 2 day spinup. – NCO parallel started FY 10 Q 4. • Establish reliability of NAVO data feed. • Establish compatibility of NCEP and Navy forcing. • Develop products with customers. – Full data on NOMADS. – Become operational in FY 2011 Q 4 Regional Climate February 2011 15

NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Regional Climate February 2011 16

Questions Welcome Regional Climate February 2011 17