Kirsty Rothwell Director Aiden Murphy Partner JP Kavanagh
- Slides: 46
Kirsty Rothwell \\\\ Director Aiden Murphy \\\ Partner JP Kavanagh General. XX Manager
Irish Hotel Market Kirsty Rothwell Director, Head of Trading Assets Cushman & Wakefield
Agenda v. Irish Hotel Market 2018 to date v. Pipeline of New Development - Requirement - Planning Analysis - Key Issues to Development v. Conclusion
Millions Hotel Transaction Activity* € 800 € 720 € 600 € 500 € 400 € 528 € 44 € 300 € 377 € 326 € 291 € 260 € 200 € 100 € 79 € 88 € 0 2014 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 2015 2016 YTD Figures 2017 YTD 2018 *Provisional - subject to revision. 5
Hotel Transaction Activity Millions Value & Volume* € 800 70 No. of Transactions 65 € 700 60 58 € 600 51 50 € 500 40 € 400 € 720 30 30 € 300 € 528 20 € 200 € 377 € 259 € 100 8 10 € 79 €- 0 2014 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 2015 Value 2016 2017 YTD 2018 Volume *Provisional - subject to revision. 6
Millions Hotel Transaction Activity* € 800 € 700 € 600 € 500 € 400 € 300 [VALUE]. 5 m Sale Agreed € 200 € 100 € 0 2014 2015 Quarter 1 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 2016 Quarter 2 2017 Quarter 3 2018 Quarter 4 *Provisional - subject to revision. 7
Hotel Transaction Activity Lot Size (%)* % of Spend 100% 13% 90% 80% 28% 34% 25% 56% 70% 67% 60% 21% 50% 28% 52% 40% 12% 18% 30% 7% 8% 20% 25% 31% 10% 19% 17% 0% 2014 >€ 1 m Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 2015 € 1 -€ 10 m 2016 € 10 -€ 20 m 2017 € 20 -€ 50 m YTD 2018 € 50 m+ *Provisional - subject to revision. 8
Hotel Sales Value by Location 2016, 2017, YTD 2018* Outside Dublin 26% Dublin 42% 2016 2017 Outside Dublin 58% Outside Dublin 54% YTD 2018 Dublin 74% Outside Dublin 26% Dublin Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 42% Outside Dublin 58% Dublin 46% Outside Dublin 54% Dublin *Provisional - subject to revision. 9
Hotel Sales Value by Region YTD 2018* South East 3% North West 19% West 46% 32% North East 19% South East 3% Dublin 46% West 32% Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research *Provisional - subject to revision. 10
Hotel Sales Value by Star Rating YTD 2017 Vs YTD 2018* [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] (1 Hotel) [CATEGOR Y NAME] [PERCENT AGE] (4 Hotels) [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] (6 Hotels) YTD 2017 [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCEN [CATEGOTAGE] (1 Hotel) RY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] (1 Hotel) [CATEGOR Y NAME] [PERCENTA GE] (6 Hotels) YTD 2018 [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] (6 Hotels) Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research *Provisional - subject to revision. 11
Domestic Vs. International by Value YTD Q 3 2018* Domestic 27% Foreign 73% Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research *Provisional - subject to revision. 12
Active Purchasers 13
Top 5 Hotel Asset Transactions YTD Q 3 2018 County Star Rating Price (Approx. ) Price per Room (Approx. ) Purchaser Origin Quarter Asset Type Dublin 4 € 22. 5 m € 135, 542 Canadian Q 3 2018 Trading Asset Sligo 4 € 15 m € 113, 636 Irish Q 1 2018 Trading Asset Ibis Hotel Dublin 2 € 14 m € 93, 333 UK Q 3 2018 Trading Asset Connemara Coast Hotel Galway 4 € 12 m € 85, 106 Austrian Q 2 2018 Trading Asset Mayo 4 € 9 m € 87, 379 Austrian Q 1 2018 Trading Asset Hotel Hilton Dublin Airport Radisson Blu Sligo The Mc. William Park Hotel Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research *Provisional - subject to revision. 14
New Development “Dublin in line for a staggering 79 new hotels” “Dublin's hotel boom goes into overdrive” “Strong development ambition for new Dublin hotels” “Dublin’s Liberties in line for economic boost”
Requirement for New Development Failte Ireland 5, 400 rooms to be delivered by 2020 ITIC 11, 000 beds required by 2025 Still 1, 100 short for current growth forecasts Requirement to provide infrastructure to allow growth of up to 65% in overseas tourism revenue
Top 10 Hotel Completions YTD 2018 County Star Rating No. of New Rooms Development Type Quarter Completed Iveagh Garden Hotel, Dublin 2 Dublin 4 145 New Build Q 1 2018 Maldron Hotel Kevin Street, Dublin 8 Dublin 4 140 New Build Q 2 2018 Clayton Hotel Dublin Airport Dublin 4 135 Extension Q 2 2018 Hilton Garden Inn, Dublin 1 Dublin 3 85 Extension Q 2 2018 The Premier Inn Hotel Dublin 3 58 Extension Q 2 2018 Hotel 7 Dublin 3 51 New Build Q 1 2018 Wexford 4 45 Extension Q 1 2018 The Morgan Hotel, Dublin 1 Dublin 4 36 Extension Q 3 2018 Trinity City Hotel, Dublin 2 Dublin 4 21 Extension Q 2 2018 Delphi Resort Galway 4 20 Extension Q 1 2018 Hotel Amber Springs Hotel & Health Spa Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research *Provisional - subject to revision. 17
New Development Full Planning List 13, 005 New Rooms in the Planning System In Total • 10, 890 in new hotels • 2, 115 in extensions of existing properties 3, 178 Rooms Under Construction • 2, 759 rooms in 21 new hotels • 383 rooms in extensions of 15 existing hotels 6, 570 Rooms with Full Planning Permission • 5, 660 rooms in 37 new hotels • 910 rooms in extensions of 23 existing hotels 3, 257 Applications In • 2, 435 rooms in 30 new hotels • 822 rooms in extensions of 13 existing hotels 18
New Development Location of Pipeline Development Dublin 11: Dublin 7: Co. Dublin: Dublin 13: Under construction: 0 rooms Under construction: 199 rooms (6. 2%) Under construction: 521 rooms (16. 4%) Under construction: 0 rooms Full planning permission: 0 rooms F. P. P. : 249 rooms (3. 78%) F. P. P. : 1, 429 rooms (21. 75%) Full planning permission: 229 rooms (3. 4%) Applications in: 100 rooms (3%) Applications in: 28 rooms (0. 08%) Applications in: 711 rooms (21. 82%) Applications in: 0 rooms Dublin 1: Under construction: 494 rooms (15. 5%) Full planning permission: 2, 139 rooms (32. 5%) Applications in: 768 rooms (23. 6%) Dublin 15: Under construction: 0 rooms Full planning permission: 0 rooms Dublin 2: Applications in: 168 rooms (5. 15%) Under construction: 1, 258 rooms (39. 6%) Dublin 20: Full planning permission: 1, 485 rooms (22. 6%) Under construction: 0 rooms Applications in: 891 rooms (27. 4%) Full planning permission: 0 rooms Dublin 4: Applications in: 220 rooms (6. 75%) Under construction: 38 rooms (1. 1%) Dublin 22: Full planning permission: 223 rooms (3. 3%) Under construction: 44 rooms(1. 38%) Applications in: 20 rooms (0. 06%) Full planning permission: 0 rooms Applications in: 78 rooms (2. 39%) Dublin 24: Dublin 8: Dublin 14: Dublin 6: Under construction: 0 rooms Under construction: 605 rooms (19%) Under construction: 0 rooms Under construction: 41 rooms (1. 2%) Full planning permission: 89 rooms (1. 35%) Full planning permission: 687 rooms (10. 4%) F. P. P. : 0 rooms Full planning permission: 40 rooms (0. 06%) Applications in: 119 rooms (3. 6% Applications in: 71 rooms (2. 1%) Applications in: 44 rooms (1. 3%) Applications in: 39 rooms (1. 2%) 19
New Development Key Issues Affecting Development Funding Alternative Uses
Keep Building
Thank you
Irish Hotel Market Briefing Aiden Murphy Partner, Crowe
Crowe Ireland Annual Hotel Industry Survey © Crowe 2018 24
Future Direction of Ireland’s Hotel Market How might new supply impact hotel profits? © Crowe 2018 What are the repercussions of a slow down or decrease in profit? With the new market dynamics would hotels be able to pass on any increase in VAT rate? 25
Overview of Ireland Hotel Supply - 2018 Western Seaboard 23% Dublin 33% Western Seaboard 31% 58, 757 Rooms South West 21% © Crowe 2018 Dublin 18% 820 Hotels Midlands & East 23% South West 22% [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] 26
Dublin KPIs 2015 2016 2017 ARR Occupancy Rev. PAR € 112 80. 7% € 90 € 128 82. 3% € 106 € 137 83. 5% € 114 Revenue YOY Growth % EBITDAR % € 59. 1 k 28. 6% € 66. 9 k 13% € 20. 4 k 21% 30. 7% € 72. 9 k 9% € 22. 9 k 12% 31. 4% Payroll Cost % 32. 5% 30. 0% 30. 1% © Crowe 2018 € 16. 9 k 27
Regional Ireland KPIs 2015 2016 2017 ARR Occupancy Rev. PAR € 81 66. 2% € 54 € 88 68. 6% € 60 € 95 70. 7% € 67 Revenue YOY Growth % EBITDAR % € 58. 7 k 15. 4% € 64. 5 k 10% € 10. 5 k 17% 16. 5% € 69. 9 k 8% € 12. 2 k 16% 17. 8% Payroll Cost % 37. 8% 37. 0% 36. 9% © Crowe 2018 € 9. 0 k 28
Risk Areas £ New Supply © Crowe 2018 Brexit Airbnb Social Housing & Student Accommodation Global Economy 29
Ireland’s Economic Conditions The fastest growing economy in EU 2018(F) of 9% for Ireland © Crowe 2018 30
© Crowe 2018 t ur kf an Fr ev a en G om e R id ad r M h ric Zu Pa ris s en a en n th A Vi na lo n er li ce ar B B on sb Li n ge r am on es te ha en op C ch an M er d st m A 85% nd lin h 90% Lo ub D rg bu in Ed Dublin Occupancy 2017 v Other European Cities 83% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Source: STR Global Data 31
New Supply Dublin: Hotels & Aparthotels 27, 0 k 25, 0 k Hotels: Extra 1. 8 m rooms to sell Aparthotels: Extra 2. 2 m rooms to sell 23, 0 k 21, 0 k 19, 0 k +6, 000 Rooms 17, 0 k 15, 0 k 2018 © Crowe 2018 2019 Hotels 2019 Aparthotels 2020 2021 32
How many room nights do we have to sell in Dublin? © Crowe 2018 2017 Supply 19, 381 Occupancy 83. 5% Rooms Sold 5. 9 m 2020 Supply 24, 308 Occupancy 80. 7% Rooms Sold 7. 2 m 2020 Supply 24, 308 Occupancy 83. 5% Rooms Sold 7. 4 m 33
How might new supply impact EBITDAR? 2017 Occupancy ADR Revenue Rooms F&B & Other Total Revenue Dept. Profit EBITDAR Scenario 1 83. 5% € 137 € 41. 3 k € 31. 4 k € 72. 9 k € 42. 0 k € 22. 9 k 57% 43% 58% 31% Occupancy ADR Revenue Rooms F&B & Other Total Revenue Dept. Profit EBITDAR 80. 7% € 112 € 33. 0 k € 30. 7 k € 63. 7 k € 34. 1 k € 17. 2 k 52% 48% 54% 27% -€ 5. 8 k EBITDAR -25% © Crowe 2018 34
Occupancy increased from 80. 7% to 83. 5% (2015 - 2017) € 160 € 150 € 140 € 130 Off-Peak Months 2015 2017 € 103 € 123 72% 76% € 120 Peak Months € 110 € 100 € 90 2015 2017 € 120 € 151 89% 91% € 80 ary ber ember u u m r n e b Ja Fe Dec Nov © Crowe 2018 ch Mar il Apr May 2015 2017 e Jun July ust ber g o m t u e c t A O Sep 35
How might new supply impact EBITDAR? 2017 Occupancy ADR Revenue Rooms F&B & Other Total Revenue Dept. Profit EBITDAR Scenario 2 83. 5% € 137 € 41. 3 k € 31. 4 k € 72. 9 k € 42. 0 k € 22. 9 k 57% 43% 58% 31% Occupancy ADR Revenue Rooms F&B & Other Total Revenue Dept. Profit EBITDAR 80. 7% € 132 € 38. 9 k € 30. 7 k € 69. 6 k € 38. 8 k € 20. 3 k 56% 44% 56% 29% -€ 2. 7 k EBITDAR -12% © Crowe 2018 36
How might new supply impact EBITDAR? 2017 Occupancy ADR Revenue Rooms F&B & Other Total Revenue Dept. Profit EBITDAR Scenario 3 83. 5% € 137 € 41. 3 k € 31. 4 k € 72. 9 k € 42. 0 k € 22. 9 k 57% 43% 58% 31% Occupancy ADR Revenue Rooms F&B & Other Total Revenue Dept. Profit EBITDAR 80. 7% € 137 € 40. 4 k € 30. 7 k € 71. 1 k € 40. 5 k € 21. 6 k 57% 43% 57% 30% -€ 1. 4 k EBITDAR -6% © Crowe 2018 37
Projected Increase in Hotel Supply By Grade: +5% +30% +35% +5% By Location: +25% Airport © Crowe 2018 City Centre Other Dublin 38
Tourism Demand International Visitors to Ireland Value of Sector 2017 2025 Growth 8. 9 m 13. 7 m +54% € 4. 9 bn € 8. 1 bn +65% Source: ITIC & Fáilte Ireland © Crowe 2018 39
VAT Rate © Crowe 2018 40
Future Direction of Ireland’s Hotel Market How might new supply impact hotel profits? © Crowe 2018 What are the repercussions of a slow down or decrease in profit? With the new market dynamics would hotels be able to pass on any increase in VAT rate? 41
5 Year Outlook - Dublin Forecast 2011 -2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Occupancy ARR Profit Concentration of new supply delivery over a short period, results in concern on sustaining profits © Crowe 2018 42
5 Year Outlook – Regional Ireland Forecast 2011 -2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Occupancy ARR Profit Challenge for profitability growth is hotels’ ability to grow revenues at higher levels than the cost increases © Crowe 2018 43
Smart decisions. Lasting value. Thank you Crowe Marine House Clanwilliam Place Dublin 2 Ireland Tel: +353 1 448 2200 Fax: +353 1 448 2201 www. crowe. ie Aiden Murphy Partner aiden. murphy@crowe. ie Crowe Ireland is a member of Crowe Global, a Swiss verein. Each member firm of Crowe Global is a separate and independent legal entity. Crowe Ireland its affiliates are not responsible or liable for any acts or omissions of Crowe Global or any other member of Crowe Global. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or legal advice. © 2018 Crowe Ireland.
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