Current Power and Energy Landscape Glen Sweetnam Energy

Current Power and Energy Landscape Glen Sweetnam Energy Information Administration Post Petroleum Energetics Conference Mc. Lean, VA June 17, 2008 1

International Energy Outlook: Major Trends • World energy use is expected to rise by 57 percent between 2004 and 2030. • Non-OECD Asia (especially China and India) energy use is expected to increase by 136%. • The Middle East accounts for substantial shares of the world’s increase in liquids (45% of the world total) and natural gas (22%) • High world oil prices encourage the production of unconventional liquids; 10. 5 million barrels per day or 9% of total liquids supply by 2030. • Coal is the fastest growing energy sources worldwide - increasing by 2. 2% per year. Natural gas and renewables each increase by 1. 9% per year. Liquids grow by 1. 4% per year. • Despite high oil and gas prices, liquids and natural gas are expected to provide 58% of the world’s primary energy in 2030. • Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increase by 60 percent between 2004 and 2030. 2

World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD History Projections 404 Non-OECD 298 240 207 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 3 OECD

Average Annual GDP and Population Growth for Selected Regions, 2004 -2030 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 4

World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980 -2030 17. 2 Non-OECD 13. 2 OECD 9. 5 7. 0 History Source: EIA, IEO 2007 5 Projections

World Oil Prices in Three World Oil Price Cases, 1980 -2030 $157 $95 $58 History Source: EIA, AEO 2007 6 Projections

World Electricity Generation by Fuel Source: EIA, IEO 2007 7

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type History Projections 34% Liquids 28% 38% 26% 24% Coal Natural Gas 23% Renewables 7% 6% Source: EIA, IEO 2007 8 Share of World Total 8% 6% Nuclear

World Liquids Consumption by Region, 2004 and 2030 7. 0 15. 0 0. 2 0. 8 4. 3 4. 1 1. 5 2. 1 Source: EIA, IEO 20079 Increase in million b/d

2005 Proved Oil Reserves and Projected Total Liquids Consumption from 2004 through 2030 (billion barrels) 10 Source: I. H. S. Energy, 2007

Estimated Reserve Ownership - 2006 6% 6% 11 % 77 % World Wide Proven Oil Reserves: 1, 148 Billion Barrels Source: PFC Energy, 2006 11

World Liquids Production, 2004 -2030 Total Non-OPEC (Conventional) 118 54 53 OPEC (Conventional) Unconventional Source: EIA, IEO 2007 12 10

Non-OPEC Producing Regions With More than a One Million Barrel Per Day Increase in Total Production Over the Forecast Period, 2005 and 2030 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 13

OPEC Conventional Liquids Production Source: EIA, IEO 2007 14

World Unconventional Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1980 -2030 History Projections Note: “Other” includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels. Source: EIA, IEO 2007 15

World Coal Consumption, 2004 -2030 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 16

World Natural Gas Consumption, 2004 -2030 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 17

World Natural Gas Production by Region, 2004 -2030 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 18

World Natural Gas Reserves, 2008 (trillion cubic feet) 2, 020 167 2, 549 545 490 415 Source: Oil & Gas Journal, “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, ” December 24, 2007, pp. 25 -28 19

World Renewable Energy Use, 2004 -2030 OECD Non-OECD Source: EIA, IEO 2007 20

World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region, 2004 and 2030 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 21

World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type Projections History Total 43 Coal Liquids 40 39 20 Source: EIA, IEO 2007 22 36 21 Natural Gas

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region Source: EIA, IEO 2007 23

Oil prices have varied widely over the last 100 years Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 24 2007 (1970 -1980); EIA, AEO 2007

What’s Different This Time 1973 - 85 2003 - 2015 Liquids Demand + 3 + 17 MMB/D Non-OPEC Supply + 13 + 4 MMB/D Unconventional ≈ 0 + 4 MMB/D OPEC Production - 14 + 9 MMB/D First period totals do not add due to inventory changes, refinery gain, and rounding 25

Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February 2007 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007 Examples of Special Analyses Long-term Oil Scenarios, Looking Beyond 2030, April 2008 Why are Oil Prices So High, November 2007 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case, ” Annual Energy Outlook 2005 www. eia. doe. gov Glen Sweetnam glen. sweetnam@eia. doe. gov 26