Climate Information Decision Support Systems Clyde Fraisse Agricultural
- Slides: 42
Climate Information & Decision Support Systems Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering
Dual-purpose of Climate DSS Education Service C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Education Components • Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections) • Effects and potential implications on the SE Climate and worldwide • Impacts of variability/change on agricultural commodities and water resources • Risk mitigation and adaptation strategies • Improve resource use efficiency (irrigation management, carbon & water footprints) How cover crops, pasture-based rotation systems, variable rate irrigation help mitigating climaterelated risk? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Service Components • Climate monitoring • Short-term and seasonal forecasts • Translation to agrelated variables (Degree-days, chill hours, crop yield) • Alert systems (freezes, disease risk) NOAA monitors the Pacific Ocean but UF-IFAS monitors your field! C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Monitoring & Weather Forecast • What field can I work on this afternoon? • When can I plant my seeds? • Should I apply N fertilizer to my fields? Flooded peanut field. Doug Mayo – August 2013. • Will it be dry enough to harvest? • Should I cut hay today? • Cold protection tonight? Blueberry freeze, UF-IFAS, February 2002. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Seasonal Climate Forecast Strategic Decisions • Best crop/variety to plant this season? • How much should I invest in fertilizer? How to apply N? • Should I purchase/increase crop insurance coverage? • Marketing decisions? • Should I invest in winter pasture or feed? C. C. W. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national policy and long-term planning C. C. W. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? • How do I become more resilient to climate extremes? Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” • Should I invest in land somewhere else? * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national or regional planning C. C. W. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Dual-Purpose of Climate DSS – Our Vision Priority / Intensity Education Should we concentrate efforts here? Short-term Climate Monitoring forecast Seasonal Decadal Service Long-term climate projection Timeframe Fraisse et al. 2014. Dual-purpose of climate DSS (in preparation). C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Intensity Web-based DSS Smartphones Short-term Climate Monitoring forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Timeframe C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
HOME TOOLS FORECASTS STATE SUMMARIES MANAGEMENT CLIMATE EXTENSION ABOUT
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Examples of questions that Agro. Climate can help answering 1. Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in our climate? 2. Levels of water stress in the SE? 3. Typical carbon footprint of corn produced in the SE USA? 4. Current strawberry disease risk? Should I apply fungicide? 5. Best peanut planting dates during La Niña years (water stress)? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Probability distribution – Rainfall La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 37% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 63% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, current year C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, last 5 years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
El Niño La Niña ENSO Impacts Number of days with moderate or high Botrytis risk in Plant City, FL Chill accumulation (hours per season), Marion County, FL. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: ARID Carbon - Agricultural footprint calculator Reference - Strawberry Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
SAS App • Monitors infection risk for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot • Users receive notification messages when the model detects a potential infection risk according to observed weather conditions.
1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
SAS – Behind the DSS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Agro. Climate Management: Conservatoin Tillage C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Thank you! Interested in organizing an Agro. Climate workshop in your area? Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering University of Florida – IFAS 352 -392 -1864 ext 271 cfraisse@ufl. edu
Clyde fraisse
Clyde fraisse
Decision support systems and intelligent systems
Objectives of decision making
Financial management process
Clyde de jesus
Clyde tolson
Clyde space limited
Decision support and business intelligence systems
Developing spreadsheet-based decision support systems
Decision support and business intelligence systems
Decision support and expert systems
How do information systems aid in decision making
Climate change 2014 mitigation of climate change
Atmis kilimo go tz
Decision tree and decision table
Types of tps system
Dss architecture components
Contoh decision support system adalah
Navify decision support
Gdp sepsis decision support tool
Components of decision support system
Components of group decision support system
Group decision support and groupware technologies
Bi vs dss
Components of decision support system
Types of decision support system
Model driven decision support system
Knowledge management decision support
Iliad clinical decision support system
Enterprise decision support system
Objectives of dss
Decision support system dashboards
Introduction to decision support system
Proses decision support system
Knowledge based decision support system
Benefits of decision support system
Mdss in marketing
Disadvantages of decision support system
Types of information systems in an organization
Ai dss
Business intelligence evolution
Operational data vs decision support data
