Climate Change 101 CSI Climate Status Investigations Teacher

Climate Change 101 CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16 -21, 2008

Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies… 1995 2004

Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies… 1995 2004 2006

Presentation Outline • • • The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

Source: EPA Global Warming site. http: //yosemite. epa. gov/oar/globalwarming. nsf/content/climate. html

Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O CF 4 SF 6 Global Warming Potential (GWP) 1 21 310 6, 500 23, 900 Atmospheric Lifetime (years) 50 -200 12 114 >50, 000 3, 200 Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm) 280 0. 722 0. 270 40 0 Atmospheric Concentration (ppm) 381 1. 774 0. 319 80 5. 4 Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr) 1, 610 0. 005 0. 0007 1. 0 (ppt/yr) 0. 23 (ppt/yr) Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008 http: //epa. gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport. html

CONVERSION CHARTS 1 unit carbon (C) = 3. 6667 or 44/12 units carbon dioxide (CO 2) 1 unit CO 2 = 0. 2727 or 12/44 units C Converting methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to equivalent CO 2 and C units: • Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO 2 = 1 • GWP of CH 4 = 21 (over 100 -year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report) • GWP of N 2 O = 310 (over 100 -year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report) EXAMPLE: (100 metric tons of N 2 O)x(310) = 31, 000 metric tons of CO 2 Equivalents x 12/44 = 8, 454 metric tons of Carbon Equivalents x 2204/2000 = 9, 316 short tons C Converting mass units (e. g. , short tons, metric tons, teragrams) 1 metric ton (tonne) = 1, 000 kilograms (kg) = 2, 204 lbs 1 short ton = 0. 9072 metric tons = 2, 000 lbs 1 Teragram (Tg) = 1012 grams = 1 million (106) metric tons 1 Gigaton (Gt) = 1 Petagram (Pg) = 1015 grams = 1 billion (109) metric tons

Presentation Outline • • • The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

Fossil Fuels World’s Dominant Energy Source United States (2005) 100 QBtu/yr (1. 06 e 14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy Gas 23% Coal 23% World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4. 87 e 14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy Gas 23% Coal 26% Nuclear 8% Nuclear 6% Hydro 3% Oil 41% Other renewable (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3% Oil 37% Renewables 8% World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http: //www. eia. doe. gov/oiaf/ieo/world. html. U. S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http: //www. eia. doe. gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel. html

Fossil Energy - America’s Energy Foundation 2005 Oil 40% 100 Quads Renewables 6% Coal 26% Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy + % 1 3 Gas 20% Nuclear 7% 2030 Oil 41% Coal 23% Gas 23% 131 Quads Renewables 6% Nuclear 8% By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 86% Source: AEO 2007

Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast, But From a Small Base 2005 6. 3 Quads + 8% 1 1 2030 13. 7 Quads Source: AEO 2008

Presentation Outline • • The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes • Future Trends

All Fossil Fuels & Energy Sectors Contribute CO 2 Emissions United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions (By Source & Sector) Transportation 32% Industry 29% Residential 21% Commercial 18% Natural Gas 20% Coal 36% Oil 44% AEO 2007

CO 2 & CH 4 - The Primary GHG Contributors United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Equivalent Global Warming Basis) Other CO 2 2% Methane 9% CO 2 from Energy 83% Nitrous Oxide 5% HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 2% “EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U. S. : 2005”

Carbon Intensity is Falling… Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001 -2025 (Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997) World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001 -2025 (Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent) …But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are Growing

Different Concentration Levels are Possible Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Billion tonnes Carbon (1900 -2100) Stabilization Requires a Budget ppm Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative carbon emissions 1900 -2100 (Gt. C) Spent Remaining Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Presentation Outline • • The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes • Future Trends

Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…

CO 2 Concentrations On The Rise (~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years) CO 2 Conc entra tion (ppm v) 350 300 Temperature Change from Present (o. C) CO 2 (Vostok) 250 200 2 0 DTatm (Vostok) -2 -4 200 150 100 50 Time Before Present (kyr) 0

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http: //www. ipcc. ch/present/graphics. htm

Presentation Outline • • • The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

Possible harbingers… • • Rising sea levels Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population changes Coral reef bleaching Permafrost melting Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires

Permafrost and polar ice are melting… Source: http: //www. arctic. noaa. gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Precipitation is erratic Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Significant Climate Anomalies Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA