44 wc 281019 Current Trend W 1 chart

44 w/c 28/10/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Trump suggests signing of phase 1 deal ahead of schedule Events Risk Moderately risk-on Themes Tuesday Mixed US/China trade rhetoric Wednesday Trump/Xi hoping to sign phase 1 deal at APEC (mid Nov) Pullback from 2½-year high EUR Making 2½-year low Indecisive Strongly risk-off Strongly risk-on CB Consumer Confidence Adv GDP; Fed Funds Rate and Statement – 25 bs cut as expected, “continue to monitor incoming in formation”. Not considering hikes unless sig. rise in inflation. Personal Spending; Core PCE Average Hourly Earnings; NFP; ISM Manu PMI DE Prelim CPI Flash Estimate FR, IT Holiday Monetary Policy Statement; Outlook Report – forward guidance now includes chance of future rate reduction Choppy uptrend Tokyo Core CPI GBP Trending upwards FTP Act vote (2/3 majority required LOST); Brexit extension granted by EU CAD Choppy at highs Rate Statement etc – no mention of future moves, but had considered a rate cut – hence dovish AUD Choppy downtrend CPI NZD Choppy downtrend Short bill for election introduced – passes through House of Commons Manufacturing PMI GDP Holiday CNY Oil MOFCOM say talks progressing well; Trump says he and Xi will sign agreement, mid Nov, location tbd Indecisive JPY Gold Friday Equities, strong USD, weak AUD. USD Equities Thursday Manu PMI Volatile just below highs Consolidating Stuck at major support API Inventories: +0. 59 m vs +0. 50 m EIA Inventories: +5. 7 m vs +0. 5 m Caixin Manu PMI

Week 44 Review Using the sentiment tool across the entirety of week 44 shows that risk sentiment was indecisive. Equities were moderately up yet the US 10 year bond yield was moderately down and we expect these asset classes to move in the same direction. GOLD was moderately up which we would associated with risk-off sentiment yet the JPY was flat. The USD was moderately down which we would associate with risk-on sentiment. So, like I said, indecisive. The Fed cut the Funds Rate by 25 bp as expected on Wednesday and was seen as dovish as they set a very high bar for future rate hikes (significant rise in inflation). The US finished the week with misses on PCE, Personal Spending, Average Hourly Earnings and ISM Manufacturing PMI. NFP was the only positive news. The Bank of Japan alluded to the chance of future rate cuts as did the Bank of Canada, causing a significant weakening in the CAD which, as of Monday morning, has yet to fully recover. Talk on the US/China trade deal was generally positive with MOFCOM being more bullish than ever before. The AUD and NZD rose over the week. The week ended with Friday being strongly risk-on, providing only the day traders with a chance to trade.

45 w/c 4/11/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday US mulling rolling back the 1 st Sept tariffs (15% on USD 112 b of imports); Xi talks about opening Chinese markets Events Risk Mod risk-on Themes Pullback from 2½-year high EUR Making 2½-year low JPY Choppy uptrend Holiday GBP Trending upwards Construction PMI CAD Choppy at highs AUD Choppy downtrend NZD Choppy downtrend First - US and China want a Phase 1 trade deal on paper by the end of next week. Then – reports China pushing for tariff roll-back, US said to be strongly against Mod risk-on Indecisive Oil Mod risk-on Indecisive ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI EU Economic Forecasts Retail Sales Super Thursday – dovish, two members votes for 25 bp easing Services PMI Trade Balance (Un)employment RBA Rate and Statement – no drama RBA Monetary Policy Statement lowered year end GDP forecast; willingness to reduce rates if required; Nov was a “pause” (Un)employment CNY Gold Friday Equities; USD strength; EUR weakness; UK Election polling; WTI (manage risk); CAD – reversal continuation USD Equities Thursday Trade Balance Volatile just below highs Consolidating Stuck at major support API Inventories: +4. 26 m vs +1. 50 m EIA Inventories: +7. 9 m vs +1. 9 m

Week 45 Review Risk sentiment was driven by the commentary from both sides of the US/China trade talks. Talk was generally positive until late Thursday when tariff roll-back became a sticking point. There was little central bank activity in the US. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged but there were two dissenters who wanted a rate cut of 25 bp. The Reserve Bank of Australia was dovish and lowered the year-end GDP forecast. All three US equity indices closed at all-time highs. The Euro 50 closed at a 4½-year high. In the FX markets, the major movers were the USD which made new short-term highs and the EUR which made 2½-year lows. GOLD broke down through support and WTI remained rangebound.

46 w/c 11/11/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Tuesday Trump optimistic on trade talks but clarified that he has yet to agree to roll back tariffs Events Asia opens with risk-off, Indecisive at NY close Risk Themes Wednesday Thursday US/China trade hits snag over agricultural purchases – 7 pm UK -time WSJ. Indecisive US Economic Adviser Kudlow – “getting close to trade deal” Moderately risk-off Strongly risk-off (1700 UK-time) Moderately risk-on Headline/Core CPI; Powell PPI; Powell Core/Headline Retail Sales Equities; EUR weakness (via EURUSD); USD strength; GOLD USD Pullback from 2½-year high over? Holiday Trump speaks – nothing new EUR Making 2½-year low FR Holiday German ZEW Economic Sentiment JPY Choppy uptrend Average Earnings Index CPI Retail Sales Westpac Consumer Sentiment Wage Price Index - ape (Un)employment GBP Consolidating Prelim GDP; Moody’s downgrades UK outlook to negative from stable; Brexit party decline to compete in Tory seats CAD Choppy at highs Holiday AUD Choppy downtrend NZD Choppy downtrend Inflation Expectations DE Prelim GDP – recession avoided Cash Rate etc – 80% chance of cut (from 60%) after Inflation Expectations result; Actual - left unchanged Gold Oil RBNZ Ass Gov Hawkesby said Feb rate cut would require a change to the outlook Fixed Asset Investment; Industrial Production CNY Equities Friday At highs Breakout down thru support Consolidating API Inventories: -0. 54 m vs +1. 60 m EIA Inventories: +2. 2 m vs +1. 5 m

Week 46 Review A roller-coaster week last week in terms of risk-sentiment. Starting the week either indecisive or risk-off, things went south after US/China trade concerns surfaced in a WSJ article on Wednesday, resulting in a significantly risk-off Thursday. Then US Economic Adviser Kudlow talked it all up by saying they were “getting close to a deal”. It seems the markets are still susceptible to this kind of talk. US equities indices had a great Thursday and finished the week at new all-time highs. Other equity indices did little. Elsewhere, Germany narrowly avoided going into recession by posting q/q GDP of +0. 1% vs the expected -0. 1%. In the UK we saw almost total red with misses in CPI, Earnings and Retail Sales, yet the GBP was up on the week. The NZD was boosted by the RBNZ failing to make a rate cut and then saying that a cut at the next meeting would require a change to their outlook on the economy. The other commodity currencies were exposed to the general risk-off sentiment in the first three days of the week and declined overall. The USD was down on the week, largely driven by the positive risk tone on Friday.

47 w/c 18/11/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Tres Sec Mnuchin and Trade Rep Lighthizer have phone call with Chinese VP Liu He – “constructive discussions”; Comm Sec Ross – “v high probability” of deal FOMC on “pause” as all comments from voters show contentment with current situation Events Risk Indecisive Themes Tuesday US Senate passed Hong Kong Human Rights bill and send it to House of Representatives. China condemns US Senate. Saying bill must not become law. Moderately risk-off Wednesday Thursday House of Representative signs Hong Kong bill – now goes to Trump; Trump says China not stepping up to the level he wants The usual trade talk; US Navy ships conduct “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China sea Moderately risk-off Moderately risk-on Friday The usual trade talk – all slightly positive Indecisive Equities; EURGBP short; weak AUD USD Pullback from 2½-year high over? EUR Making 2½-year low JPY Choppy uptrend GBP Consolidating CAD Consolidating AUD Choppy downtrend NZD Choppy downtrend FOMC Mtg Mins – after Oct cut, policy level appropriate and no further cuts unless significant slowdown Flash Manu PMI ECB Monetary Policy Mtg Mins – “wait and see” after recent measures Tories expand lead over Labour Johnson/Corbyn debate - draw FR Manu and Serv PMI DE Manu and Serv PMI FR Manu and Serv PMI CPI - ape BOC Poloz said monetary conditions “about right” Core Retail Sales Monetary Policy Mtg Mins – “case could be made for a cut” but held firm CNY Equities Gold Oil At highs Breakout down thru support Consolidating API Inventories: +6. 0 m vs +1. 5 m Russia unlikely to agree to further cuts at Dec OPEC+ mtg; producer concern on weak demand growth EIA Inventories: +1. 4 m vs +1. 4 m OPEC likely to extend cuts to June 2020

Week 47 Review Last week saw multiple daily comments regarding the US/China trade talks – China’s Premier Xi and VP Liu He were positive. The passing of the Hong Kong Human Rights Bill and US Navy operations in the South China Sea were on the negative side. The Fed meeting minutes seemed to indicate they has “paused” as voters seem largely content with monetary policy at this time after the recent rate cuts. This sentiment was echoed by Bo. C’s Poloz and the ECB. Risk sentiment floated at or near “indecisive” all week. Equity indices, GOLD and WTI showed little or no movement over the week. Currencies moved within recent ranges except the CAD, which made new six month lows.

48 w/c 25/11/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Tuesday Trump says “in final throes” re China trade deal Events Risk Indecisive Themes Indecisive Wednesday Trumps signs Hong Kong bill into law Moderately risk-on Choppy uptrend EUR Making 2½-year low JPY Choppy uptrend Retail Sales -7. 1% vs -4. 4%, largest decline since March 2015 GBP Consolidating MRP poll shows Conservatives on track for 68 seat majority CAD Consolidating CB Consumer Confidence Indecisive Core PCE Holiday CPI Flash Estimate Tokyo Core CPI - ape GDP - ape AUD Choppy downtrend NZD Choppy downtrend Financial Stability Report – no drama ANZ Business Confidence – no expectation, moves up but still <0. CNY Oil Chinese retaliation to HK Bill seems limited DE Prelim CPI Gov Lowe speaks – QE not on agenda; Westpac sees 0. 25% by June 2020, QE H 2 2020; RBC sees 0. 25% by 2021 and QE on same timescale Gold Friday Equities; weak EUR (EURUSD short), weak AUD (AUDUSD short, AUDJPY short) USD Equities Thursday Manu PMI (Saturday) At highs Buoyed by US/China phone call Breakout down thru support holding Consolidating API Inventories: +3. 6 m vs -0. 4 m EIA Inventories: +1. 6 m vs -0. 5 m Russian Energy Minister Novak triggered doubt for deal extension at next week’s OPEC+ mtg

Week 48 Review A short week, due to US Thanksgiving, risk-sentiment was mostly indecisive. Major issues on the calendar were: 1. 2. 3. 4. Inflation related - US Core PCE and German Preliminary CPI missing expectations, A huge miss on Retail Sales in Japan, Institutional forecasts of further rate cuts and even the introduction of QE in Australia and; On Friday, Russia’s oil minister Novak inspiring a 4% price drop in WTI as he says he’s not keen on extending the production cut at next week’s OPEC+ meeting. In holiday-thinned trade, US equities closed slightly up over the week. The biggest mover outside the US was the FTSE 250 which moved up on the improving poll position for the Conservatives, although it was knocked back a little on Friday as the gap narrowed. GOLD hardly moved and WTI dropped as mentioned above. On currencies, the EUR and AUD both dropped, as predicted in Monday’s Trading Plan, but by very little, making trading difficult. The GBP rose on polling what was positive for the Conservatives. Elsewhere, moves were muted. Notably, the CAD arrested it’s recent decline.

49 w/c 2/12/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Events Risk Themes Monday Tuesday Wednesday US/China trade deal stalled by HK Bill and Chinese insistence on a tariff roll-back; Xinjiang Bill becomes an issue in US/China trade (re Uyghur Muslims) – China threatens Unreliable Entity list NATO Summit Monday - France Digital Services Tax prompts threats from US of 100% tariffs on USD 2. 4 b; Monday - Trump re-imposing metal tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. NATO Summit Tues – US House votes thru Xinjiang Bill. Wed – Positive rhetoric on trade Moderately risk-off Strongly risk-on Choppy uptrend ISM Manu PMI EUR Making 2½-year low ECB Pres Lagarde speaks JPY Choppy uptrend GBP Consolidating CAD Consolidating AUD Choppy downtrend NZD Choppy downtrend CNY Gold Oil Friday NEC Director Kudlow says talks constructive, Trump likes what he sees, not yet ready to sign, no specific requirements to avoid 15 Dec tariffs. Moderately risk-on Equities, weak EUR and AUD, UK election (GBP long, FTSE 250 long) USD Equities Thursday Cash Rate and Statement – “gentle turning point” reached ISM Non-Manu PMI Average Hourly Earnings; NFP; Unemployment Rate Overnight Rate and Statement – unchanged as expected, statement was bullish (Un)employment GDP Retail Sales; Trade Balance RBNZ increases bank capital requirements – seen as reducing need for rate cut Caixin Manu PMI Caixin Services PMI At highs Breakout down thru support holding Consolidating API Inventories: -3. 7 m vs -1. 7 m Iraqi oil minister says additional 400 K bpd cut being discussed EIA Inventories: -4. 9 m vs -1. 6 m OPEC Mtg OPEC-JMMC Mtg; OPEC agree 500 K bpd additional cuts in Q 1

Week 49 Review An off then on week. Monday and Tuesday saw risk off sentiment driven by trade rhetoric, poor PMI prints the Hong Kong Bill and the Xinjiang Bill. Wednesday then turned significantly risk-on and stayed risk-on for the rest of the week, finished off by trade bullishness from NEC Director Kudlow and a positive NFP and Unemployment figures. Central bank activity saw the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ each being bullish. US equities were flat over the week with a long tail to the downside, indicating the down-then-up move across the week. Elsewhere, equities were more mixed. The FTSE 250 was positive on election hopes. WTI rose on two stock reports and the OPEC meeting decision to cut further in Q 1. GOLD barely moved. On currencies, the GBP was very positive on election hopes. The USD was down on trade concerns and economic news, recovering only slightly towards the end of the week as the risk sentiment improved. The JPY was flat and both antipodeans were slightly up, aided in large part by the positive risk sentiment towards the end of the week. The EUR continued its slide. I traded GBPUSD and FTSE 250, both long. Profit on the week was 7. 4%.

50 w/c 9/12/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday Moderately risk-off Indecisive Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes Strong GBP; FTSE 250 long; weak EUR/Lagarde; equity pullbacks USD Choppy uptrend EUR Making new lows JPY Very choppy uptrend GBP Up within consolidation CAD Consolidating AUD Choppy downtrend NZD Choppy downtrend Equities Gold Oil DE ZEW Economic Sentiment Main Refinancing Rate; Monetary Policy Statement GDP; Manufacturing Production; MRP poll 2200 hrs – Tory 28 seat majority (was 68) Parliamentary Elections Westpac Consumer Sentiment Trade Balance – Exports miss to downside, imports miss to upside CNY CPI New Loans API Inventories: +1. 41 m vs -2. 8 m EIA Inventories: +0. 8 m vs -2. 9 m At highs Breakout down thru support holding Consolidating Headline/Core Retail Sales; Treasury Currency Report (Sat) Headline and Core CPI; Fed Funds Rate