PUBLIC OPINION CHAPTER 9 PUBLIC OPINION PUBLIC OPINION

PUBLIC OPINION CHAPTER 9

PUBLIC OPINION • PUBLIC OPINION, RIGHT OR WRONG, HAS BECOME THE STANDARD AGAINST WHICH THE CONDUCT OF CONTEMPORARY GOVERNMENTS IS MEASURED. • IT DENOTES THE VALUES AND ATTITUDES THAT PEOPLE HAVE ABOUT ISSUES, EVENTS AND PERSONALITIES.

VALUES(BELIEFS) v. ATTITUDES(OPINIONS) • VALUES • A PERSON’S BASIC ORIENTATIONS TO POLITICS • DEEP-SEATED GOALS, ASPIRATIONS AND IDEALS THAT SHAPE A PERSON’S PERCEPTIONS OF POLITICAL ISSUES AND EVENTS. • ATTITUDES • A SPECIFIC VIEW ABOUT A PARTICULAR ISSUE, PERSONALITY OR EVENT.

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION • COMMON FUNDAMENTAL VALUES • EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY • LIBERTY • DEMOCRACY

INFLUENCES OF POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION • THE FAMILY • SOCIAL GROUPS • GENDER GAP • GENERATION GAP • DIFFERENCES IN EDUCATION • POLITICAL CONDITIONS

POLITICAL IDEOLOGY • A COMPLEX SET OF BELIEFS AND VALUES THAT FORM A GENERAL PHILOSOPHY ABOUT GOVERNMENT • LIBERALISM, CONSERVATISM

THE MARKETPLACE OF IDEAS: ORIGINS OF THE IDEA MARKET • THE FORUM FOR THE MARKETPLACE OF IDEAS HAS REQUIRED EXTENSIVE GOVERNMENT MAINTAINANCE IN THE AREAS OF EDUCATION, COMMUNICATION AND JURISPRUDENCE. • COMMON LANGUAGE • LITERACY • COMMUNICATIONS MECHANISMS • LEGAL PROTECTION OF FREE EXPRESSION OF IDEAS

THE IDEA MARKET TODAY • COMMON FUNDAMENTAL VALUES • EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY • INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM • DEMOCRACY • AMERICA HAS NEVER HAD AN ARISTOCRACY TO ASSERT THE VIRTUES OF INEQUALITY, SPECIAL PRIVILEGE OR A RIGID CLASS STRUCTURE • NO POWERFUL COMMUNIST OR SOCIALIST PARTY TO CHALLENGE THE IDEA OF A LIMITED GOVERNMENT

AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT ON ISSUES • FACTORS WHICH OFTEN LEAD TO DIFFERENCES ON ISSUES: • INCOME • EDUCATION • OCCUPATION • RACE • GENDER (GENDER GAP) • ETHNICITY • AGE (GENERATION GAP) • RELIGION • REGION

LIBERALISM AND CONSERVATISM • POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES THAT INCLUDE BELIEFS ABOUT THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT, IDEAS ABOUT PUBLIC POLICIES AND WHICH GROUPS IN SOCIETY SHOULD PROPERLY EXERCISE POWER

LIBERAL • • • SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL AND SOCIAL REFORM SUPPORT FOR EXTENSIVE GOVERNMENTAL INTERVENTION IN THE ECONOMY THE EXPANSION OF FEDERAL SOCIAL SERVICES MORE VIGOROUS EFFORTS ON BEHALF OF THE POOR, MINORITIES AND WOMEN GREATER CONCERN FOR CONSUMERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ABORTION RIGHTS DECRIMINALIZATION OF DRUG USE OPPOSE STATE INVOLVEMENT WITH RELIGIOUS INSTITUIONS ARMS CONTROL OPPOSE NUCLEAR TESTING AID TO POOR NATIONS

CONSERVATIVE • SUPPORT THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STATUS QUO • SUSPICIOUS OF EFFORTS TO INTRODUCE NEW POLITICAL FORMULAE AND ECONOMIC ARRANGEMENT • LARGE AND POWERFUL GOVERNMENT POSES A THREAT TO CITIZENS FREEDOM • OPPOSE EXPANSION OF GOVERNMENTAL ACTIVITY • SOLUTIONS TO SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS CAN BE DEVELOPED IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR • LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS ON BUSINESS • OPPOSE ABORTION • SUPPORT SCHOOL PRAYER • CONCERN FOR VICTIMS OF CRIME RATHER THAN PERPETRATORS • TRADITIONAL FAMILY ARRANGEMENTS

LIBERAL v. CONSERVATIVE • FOR LIBERALS EQUALITY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT OF THE CORE VALUES • FOR CONSERVATIVES, LIBERTY IS THE CORE VALUE • IN TRYING TO FRAME, WHAT IS A CONSERVATIVE OR LIBERAL, IS OFTEN A DIFFICULT PICTURE TO DRAW AND FREQUENTLY SEEMS TO REFLECT THE SUPPORT OF ISSUES WHICH ARE APPARANTLY AT ODDS.

(CON. ) • THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE VARIOUS ELEMENTS OF LIBERALISM OR THE SEVERAL ASPECTS OF CONSERVATISM ARE POLITICAL RATHER THAN LOGICAL. • MANY INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE LIBERAL ON SOCIAL ISSUES ARE CONSERVATIVE ON ECONOMIC ISSUES.

HOW ARE POLITICAL OPINIONS FORMED? • UNDERLYING BELIEFS AND IDEOLOGIES TEND TO AUTOMATICALLY COLOR PEOPLE’S PERCEPTIONS AND OPINIONS ABOUT POLITICS. • FEW INDIVIDUALS HAVE THEIR OPINIONS SO RIGIDLY FORMED ON INDIVIDUAL ISSUES • THOSE WHO DO REACT IN THIS MANNER ARE DISMISSED AS “IDEOLOGUES”

OTHER FACTORS THAT FORM OUR POLITICAL DISPOSITIONS • A PERSON’S KNOWLEDGE OF POLITICAL ISSUES • OUTSIDE INFLUENCES ON THAT PERSON’S VIEWS

POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE • THE BETTER INFORMED AN INDIVIDUAL IS, THE MORE KNOWLEGEABLE CAN THEY MAKE THEIR DECISION. • STATISTICS SHOW THAT INDIVIDUALS WITH A DISPROPORTIONATE SHARE OF INCOME AND EDUCATION ALSO HAVE A DISPROPORTIONATE SHARE OF KNOWLEDGE AND INFLUENCE AND ARE BETTER ABLE TO GET WHAT THEY WANT FROM GOVERNMENT.

THE INFLUENCE OF POLITICAL LEADERS, PRIVATE GROUPS, AND THE MEDIA • GIVEN CONSTANT EXPOSURE TO THE IDEAS OF OTHERS, IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR MOST INDIVIDUALS TO RESIST SOME MODIFICATION OF THEIR OWN BELIEFS

SHAPING PUBLIC OPINION • HOW DO GOVERNMENTS SEEK TO SHAPE VALUES THAT IN TURN INFLUENCE PUBLIC OPINION? • HOW ARE POLITICAL ISSUES MARKETED BY THE GOVERNMENT, BY PRIVATE GROUPS AND BY THE MEDIA?

ENLISTING PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT • • NATIONALISM • THE BELIEF THAT PEOPLE WHO OCCUPY THE SAME TERRITORY HAVE SOMETHING IMPORTANT IN COMMON PRIVATE PROPERTY • OWNERSHIP OF PROPERTY DISCOURAGES DISORDER AND REVOLUTION EDUCATION • A MEANS BY WHICH SOCIETY PERPETUALLY RECREATES THE CONDITIONS OF ITS VERY EXISTENCE • ALLOWS FOR AN EDUCATED WORKFORCE AND TRANSMITS THE NATIONS VALUES PARTICIPATION AND CO-OPTATION • ENCOURAGES THE PEOPLE TO GIVE THEIR CONSENT TO BEING GOVERNED

MARKETING POLITICAL IDEAS • PUBLIC RELATIONS PLAYS AN INTEGRAL PART IN THE SHAPING OF PUBLIC OPINION • POLITICAL IDEAS ARE USUALLY THE PRODUCT OF CAREFULLY ORCHESTRATED CAMPAIGNS

GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT OF ISSUES • ALL GOVERNMENTS ATTEMPT TO A GREATER OR LESSER EXTENT TO INLFLUENCE OR MANIPULATE THE BELIEFS OF THEIR CITIZENS (CPI DURING WWI) • GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO MANIPULATE THE PUBLIC CAN BACKFIRE: DURING THE VIETNAM ERA • THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION UTILIZED THE “POLITICAL WAR ROOM” • OFTEN PUBLIC RELATIONS EFFORTS ARE AIMED AT POLITICAL ELITES AND OPINION MAKERS

PRIVATE GROUPS AND THE SHAPING OF PUBLIC OPINION • PROMINENT IDEAS ARE OFTEN DEVELOPED BY IMPORTANT ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL GROUPS • ISSUES ARE MOST EFFECTIVELY PROMOTED ARE THOSE THAT HAVE VAST FINANCIAL RESOURCES, BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE • EXAMPLE: ABORTION ISSUE DURING THE CLINTON PRESIDENCY

(CON. ) • WHATEVER GROUP CAN MUSTER THE MOST FINANCIAL, INSTITUTIONAL, EDUCATIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL RESOURCES, ARE ALSO BEST ABLE TO PROMOTE THEIR IDEAS IN THE MARKETPLACE. • IN GENERAL THE PRINT AND BROADCAST MEDIA AND THE PUBLISHING INDUSTRY ARE MOST RESPONSIVE TO THE TASTES AND VIEWS OF THE MORE “UPSCALE” SEGMENTS OF THE POPUALCE

THE MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION • THE WAY IN WHICH THE MEDIA REPORTS THE NEWS INFLUENCES THE UNDERLYING BELIEFS AND ATTITUDES OF THE PUBLIC • EXAMPLE: BUDGET BATTLE BETWEEN CLINTON AND NEWT GINGRICH IN 1996

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION • “IS GOVERNMENT BY CONSENT POSSIBLE WHERE THE SCALE OF COMMUNICATION IS SO LARGE AND IMPERSONAL? ” • TO DEAL WITH THIS QUESTION POLITICIANS HAVE TURNED TO THE SCIENCE OF OPINION POLLING

GETTING PUBLIC OPINION DIRECTLY FROM PEOPLE • SCIENTIFIC • IMPRESSIONISTIC • PERSON-TO-PERSON • SELECTIVE POLLING • BELLWETHER DISTRICTS

PERSON-TO-PERSON • ACQUIRE KNOWLEDGE THROUGH DIRECT CONTACT WITH PEOPLE • ADVANTAGE • QUICK, EFFICIENT, INEXPENSIVE • DISADVANTAGE • CLOSE OFF UNPLEASANT INFORMATION • LIMIT AWARENESS OF ISSUES

SELECTIVE POLLING • FOR MANY YEARS NEWSPAPERS USED SELECTIVE IMPRESSIONISTIC POLLING • NOW THEY HAVE BECOME CLIENTS OF GALLUP, ROPER AND OTHER LARGE SCIENTIFIC POLLING ORGANIZATIONS

BELLWETHER DISTRICTS • NAME GIVEN TO DISTRICTS THAT ARE INDICATORS OF THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE GROUP IS GOING • IT MAY BE A TOWN OR AREA WHICH REFLECTS HOW THE POPULATION IS VOTING • THE TELEVISION NETWORKS HAVE DEVELOPED ELABORATE TECHNIQUES TO PREDICT ELECTION RESULTS WITHIN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME

BELLWETHER DISTRICTS (CON. ) • USEFUL WHEN THERE IS AN ELECTION INVOLVING A LIMITED NUMBER OF CANDIDATES • TENDS TO WORK WELL ONLY WHEN THE ANALYSIS TAKES PLACE CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL DAY OF ELECTION • THE LASTING KNOWLEDGE IS LIMITED • NOT PARTICULARLY USEFUL FOR STATING THE OPINIONS OF PEOPLE OVER A LENGTHY PERIOD OF TIME

CONSTRUCTING PUBLIC OPINION FROM SURVEYS • THE POLL IS CHOSEN BASED UPON A SAMPLE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION • THE SAMPLE MUST BE REPRESENTATIVE PROPORTIONALLY IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE TOTAL POPULATION

TYPES OF SAMPLING • BOTH OF THE FOLLOWING METHODS ARE BEST SUITED FOR POLLING SMALL POPULATIONS • QUOTA SAMPLING • MOST COMMONLY USED IN COMMERCIAL POLLS • PROBABILITY SAMPLING • MOST ACCURATE TECHNIQUE • SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING • RANDOM SAMPLING

TYPES OF SAMPLING (CONTINUED) • AREA SAMPLING • USED WHEN HIGH LEVEL OF ACCURACY IS REQUIRED • PUSH POLLING • ASKING A RESPONDENT A LOADED QUESTION ABOUT A CANDIDATE DESIGNED TO ELICIT A SOUGHT FOR RESPONSE. • HAPHAZARD SAMPLING • NEWS REPORTERS STANDING OUTSIDE POLLING PLACES

PROBLEMS WITH RELIABILITY OF SAMPLING • POOR QUESTION FORMAT • QUESTIONS WITH BUILT-IN BIAS • INAPPROPRIATE VOCABULARY • USE OF THE WORD “WELFARE”, AS OPPOSED TO THE PHRASE “ASSISTANCE FOR THE POOR” • FAULTY ORDERING OF QUESTIONS • BIAS MAY BE INTENTIONAL

SAMPLE SIZE • PRECISION IS CONTINGENT ON SAMPLE SIZE • THE ABILITY TO ACCURATELY PREDICT ELECTION OUTCOMES IS CONTINGENT ON THE MODEL OF BEHAVIOR WHICH IS BUILT ON SOME OF THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA:

SAMPLE SIZE (CON. ) • INFLUENCE OF THE RESPONDENT’S PLACE IN THE SOCIAL STRUCTURE • INFLUENCE OF HABIT AND PREVIOUS PARTY LOYALTY • INFLUENCE OF PARTICULAR ISSUES FOR EACH ELECTION • DIRECTION AND STRENGTH OF THE RESPONDENT’S GENERAL IDEOLOGY • RESPONDENT’S OCCUPATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND, INCOME LEVEL AND SO ON.

POLLING ERRORS • SOME FEEL POLLING ERRORS ARE A REFLECTION OF “LIBERAL BIAS” • THE JESSE VENTURA VICTORY IN MINNESOTA • POLLING ERRORS WERE AS A RESULT OF NOT REFLECTING “SAME-DAY” VOTER REGISTRATION

LIMITS TO ASSESSING POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE WITH POLLS • INHERENT PROBLEMS WITH POLLING • BANDWAGON EFFECT • SOME MAINTAIN IT CAN BE OFFSET BY THE “UNDERDOG EFFECT” • ILLUSION OF CENTRAL TENDENCY • ILLUSION OF SALIENCY

ILLUSION OF CENTRAL TENDENCY • THE ASSUMPTION THAT ATTITUDES TEND TOWARD THE AVERAGE OR CENTER GRAPH • SOME ISSUES, ABORTION, ARE DISTRIBUTED BIMODALLY • THE POPULATION IS POLARIZED • OFTENTIMES THE WORDING OF A QUESTION MAY CREATE A FALSE IMPRESSION • NIXON AND WATERGATE IN 1972 -’ 73

CENTRAL TENDENCY (CON. ) • SOMETIME MODERATE VIEWS ARE A REFLECTION OF THE AMBIVALENCE OF A RESPONDENT, WHO MAY BE QUITE AWARE OF THE SUBTLETIES OF AN ISSUE. • THE RESULT IS THAT CONCENSUS, REFLECTED BY A MODERATE POSITION, MAY IN FACT BE ARTIFICIAL.

THE ILLUSION OF SALIENCY • POLLSTERS WHO ASSUME SOMETHING IS IMPORTANT TO THE PUBLIC WHEN IN FACT IT IS NOT ARE CREATING AN ILLUSION OF SALIENCY • THE ILLUSION IS STRENGTHENED BY THE CREDIBILITY THAT SCIENCE GIVES THE SURVEY • THE PUBLIC’S CONCERNS ARE OFTEN SHAPED BY POWERFUL POLITICAL FORCES, NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND • POLLS OFTEN ALLOW THE MEDIA TO MAKE NEWS WHEN NONE REALLY EXISTS • MEDIA POLLS CAN INFLUENCE CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS

PUBLIC OPINION, POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE AND THE IMPORTANCE OF IGNORANCE • WHILE BEING KNOWLEDEABLE CONCERNING POLL RESULTS HAS ITS BENEFITS, IGNORANCE MAY ALSO BE BENEFICIAL • IT MAY ACT AS A RESTRAINT ON POWER • UNCERTAINTY MAY LEAD OFFICIALS TO BEING MORE ACCOUNTABLE TO THEIR CONSTITUENTS

PUBLIC OPINION AND GOVERNMENT POLICY • IN GENERAL GOVERNMENT POLICIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH CITIZENS PREFERENCES • FACTORS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO A LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPINION AND GOVERNMENTAL POLICY

PUBLIC OPINION V. GOVERNMENT POLICY • A NOMINAL MAJORITY ON A PARTICULAR ISSUE MAY NOT BE AS COMMITTED AS THE ADHERENTS OF A MINORITY POINT OF VIEW • CHARACTER AND STRUCTURE OF THE AMERICAN SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT • BALLOT INITIATIVES