What is public opinion How is public opinion

• What is public opinion? • How is public opinion formed? • Why public opinions differ.

• How people think or feel about things (politics) • Vast majority of people knew next to nothing about government • Only vague notions of much-publicized public policy that affects us directly

• 1940 s • 21% favored the bill • 25% opposed it • The rest said they hadn’t thought about it or didn’t Know • NO SUCH BILL

• Poll – survey of public opinion • Random Sample – any given voter or adult has equal chance of being interviewed. • Sampling Error – difference between to identical polls

• Exit Polls = interview randomly selected people at polling place on election day • Quite accurate except when a very close election

• Opinion saliency: some people care more about certain issues than other people do • Opinion Stability: some issues or choices opinions are steady, while on others they are more volatile • Opinion-policy congruence: some issues government is in sync with popular views, while on other issues it is significantly out of sync

• Personal and other background traits influence one’s views about politics and government matters • Your surroundings influence your political and Government beliefs

• People who have a disproportionate share of some valued resource (money) • Know more about politics • Hold more or less a consistent set of political beliefs • Government attends more to the elite views than the popular vies

• 60% of adults adopt the party preference of their parents • There has been a decline in the ability of family to promote a partisan identification

• Religious differences make for political differences • Catholics – more liberal • Protestants – more conservative • Jewish – more liberal • SOCIAL ISSUES

• Men and women both ID with Democrats at the same levels in 1950 s • 1990 s men more Republican • WHY = men more conservative, Democratic female candidates

• Longer in College more liberal • Political participation among college students has declined

• “It would be so much easier if everyone’s opinion on political affairs reflected some single feature of his or her life, such as income, occupation, age, race, or sex. ”

• Public Opinion and voting less determined by class than in Europe • Becoming less clearcut source of political cleavage • Noneconomic (abortion, race relations, environment, etc. ) issues now define liberal and conservative

• African-Americans are overwhelmingly Democrat • Becoming a less clearcut source of political change • The gap in opinions is narrowing between blacks and whites • Tables 7. 4 & 7. 5

• Gap between leaders of African American Organizations and African Americans in general. • Gap between white leaders and white citizens • Gaps within own race

• Southerners & Northerners disagree significantly • Southerners becoming less Democratic

• Patterned set of political beliefs about who ought to rule, their principles and policies • Moderates – largest group of voters. • Figure 7. 3 (pg 168)

• Small minority take ideologically consistent views on political issues • People often express opinions at odds with their ideological label • Ideological thinking may be greater in some years than in others • Americans do not think of politics in an ideological manner

Conservative Liberal

• Favor bigger welfare state • Favor smaller military establishment

• Strong military • Prayer should be in schools • Oppose abortion on demand

• Liberal: favored personal and economic liberty – freedom from the controls and powers of the state • Supported free market and opposed Government regulation of trade

• Conservative: opposed the excesses of the French Revolution and its emphasis on personal freedom and favored instead a restoration of the power of the state, the church, and the aristocracy

• An active national government that would intervene in the economy, create social welfare programs, and help certain groups gain greater bargaining power

• Barry Goldwater • Free market rather than a regulated one • States’ rights over national supremacy • Individual choice in economic affairs • US play active role in world affairs

• Liberals – Favor gov. efforts to ensure everyone has a job – Spend more money on medical and educational programs – Increase rate of taxation for well-to-do persons

• Liberals – Strong federal action to desegregate schools – Provide compensatory programs for minorities – Enforce Civil Rights laws strictly

–Liberals: » Tolerant of protest demonstrations » Legalizing Marijuana » Eliminate crime causes rather than getting tougher with offenders

• Economy • Personal Conduct • Political Ideologies are Complex • Liberal and Conservative in their pure form describe the views of relatively few people

• Are pure liberal or pure conservative because of information and peers • Activists: hold office, run for office, lead interest groups and social movements • Since 1980 s Congress has showed more partisan voting

• Elites influence public opinion in two ways. 1. Elites raise and frame political issues: influence what issues capture public opinion and how those issues are debated and decided 2. State the norms by which issues should be settled

• POLITICAL ELITES HAVE A DISPROPORTIONATE INFLUENCE ON PUBLIC POLICY AND ENVEN AND INFLUENCE ON MASS OPINION