Occupational Compass Sweden Tord Strannefors Jan Sundqvist Karin

Occupational Compass - Sweden Tord Strannefors Jan Sundqvist Karin Berglind Swedish Public Employment Service Department of Analysis

Occupational forecasts • Short term forecasts – 1 year ahead • Long term forecasts – outlook 5 -10 years ahead

Rationale and objectives • As a broker on the labour market it is crucial to have good labour market knowledge • Thus one of the core objectives of the model is to enhance labour market knowledge at all levels of the PES organisation ------------------------ • A structured way of collecting and disseminating the knowledge that otherwise would have been underutilised

Shortage index for selected occupations MAIN DATA SOURCES Employer survey Occupational tendency survey Expert views Other related sources

Occupational survey Process and methods - Covers about 200 occupations a majority at ISCO 4 -digit level, but many forecasts are made at a more specific level - Periodicity: twice a year - Based on the assessments made by PES front staff of their local labour market - Assessment of the balance between the demand for and supply of labour, - One assessment for today and for one year ahead - From the results a shortage index is calculated

The Occupational Tendency Survey • To create the shortage index – Large surplus = value 1 – Surplus = value 2 – Balance = value 3 – Shortage = value 4 – Large shortage = value 5 • If all offices answer large surplus, the result in shortage index will be 1

The Occupational Tendency Survey – Q 1 b

Weighted shortage index • Each answer is given a weight according to the number of employees in that occupation living in respective municipality. • The weights for each occupation sum to 1 for the country • For example, miners get a high weight in northern Sweden and a low weight in southern Sweden

The Occupational Tendency Survey • The scale classification in the shortage index – Index > 4. 0 large shortage – Very low competition for jobs – Index 3. 3 -3. 99 shortage – Low competition for jobs – Index 2. 9 -3. 29 balance – Balance – Index 2. 0 -2. 89 surplus – Fierce competition for jobs – Index < 2. 0 large surplus – Very fierce competition for jobs

Quality check of the tendency survey • Guided discussions at a local level with the front staff • Quality check by regional analysts, and occupational analysts at country level • Dialog with associations and labour unions, some examples: - Almega – employer and trade organisation for the Swedish service sector - LO, The Swedish Trade Union Confederation - Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SALAR)

Long term forecasting information sources • Statistics is the basis, for example, population projections. • Information from employers organisations and labour unions and other experts – structural changes • Information from written reports and from other forecasters • Difficult to ask about occupations in long terms by a questionnaire to employers – if so ask about structural changes for groups educated or of homogeny groups of occupations

Supply and demand of labour analyse long trends

Statistical information § Demand of labour by occupation Ø Changes in employment Ø Occupational changers Ø Retirements § Supply of labour by occupations Ø Population projections Ø Inflow of person into occupations Ø Migration

Occupational Compass – a software instrument • A service of PES in Sweden (internet); labour market situation and prospects for a broad selection of occupations • Guidance Support for all jobseekers and for people facing educational choices. • More effective matching process – shorter duration of vacancies and unemployment spells – higher production – higher economic growth in the country – higher GDP

Occupational compass, ideas when it was created • Creating a robust information system. • Affect educational choices – primarily via good information. • Target group was young people, but also job seekers, employment officers and profession counsellors. • The product should be easy to use. • Create a professional information plaza where all occupational information is available in an easy way.

Basic requirements • Content must be of high quality • Involve more employees at the head office. • The product must contain a short and a long outlook – only a short-term outlook increase the risk that the result will be countercyclical. – Even professions where there is usually a shortage of labour can get a increased unemployment during recession periods. • A long term outlook is the essence of guidance for professionals and future

Dissemination of the results – The Occupational Compass http: //www. arbetsformedlingen. se/yrkeskompassen

Example: Concrete workers Short term forecast Summary Statistics Long term forecast

Example: Concrete workers Forecast, describing text

Example: Concrete workers Short term forecast

Dissemination of the results – The Occupational Compass Example: Concrete workers These are actually the results from the Occupational Barometer, shown in colours and with a vocabulary adjusted to jobseekers.

Example: Concrete workers Describing text – long term forecast Long term forecast

Example: Concrete workers Description of the occupation. Working conditions, education requirements, interviews etc.

How the results are used – The Occupational Compass • Occupational guidance Young people, such as school leavers and students but also other job seekers PES staff working with occupational guidance Counsellors in schools and universities • Meeting between employment officers and job seekers First dialogue, starting the process to make an individual action plan, discussion on job opportunities, etc. • Available to everyone

Informing practice PES Front staff I’m using the Occupational Compass at least a couple of times per month. Feel that it is important to have access to this kind of information in my work. (“I Agree” on a scale 1 -10) Guidance practitioners for elementary and secondary school Job seekers in contact with PES 61% 60% 19% 8, 5 8, 3 -