INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ADAPTATION AND

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED AREAS AND COMMUNITIES IN SE ASIA (AS 21) Rodel D. Lasco University of the Philippines 1

Introduction l Philippines: > 70% of the total land area lies within watersheds l 421 principal river basins l Irrigate > 1. 5 M ha of agricultural lands l Hydropower major energy source l 18 -20 M people living in uplands l Indonesia: most of watersheds in Java are already at critical stage 2

Landuse change in watersheds 3

Project objectives l Assess the impacts of climate change to water resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems l Conduct integrated vulnerability assessment of natural and social systems l Develop adaptation strategies l Promote stakeholder participation l Contribute to peer reviewed literature l Help build capacity of local scientists 4

Research Team Philippines: University of the Philippines at Los Baños (UPLB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) Prof. Dr. Rodel D. Lasco Prof. Dr. Rex Victor O. Cruz Dr. Juan M. Pulhin DENR representative l Indonesia: Institute Pertanian Bogor Dr. Rizaldi Boer Dr. Ekawati S. Wahyuni Ir l 5

Key Partners l Dr. Meine van Noordwijk International Center for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia l Dr. Josep Canadell GCTE, Australia l Scientists from Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia l National government agencies, NGOs and people’s organizations 6

Methods l study will focus on a watershed each in the Philippines (Pantabangan watershed) and Indonesia (Tulang Bawang Watershed). l Stakeholders will be involved at various steps of the research process 7

The Pantabangan Watershed 8

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Research Framework Climate change scenario Forest/carbon budget Local communities Water Budget Land use and land cover change THE WATERSHED SYSTEM Biophysical factors Socio-economic political factors 19

Climate scenario: MAGICC-SCENGEN 20

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Table 1. Precipitation anomalies of DJF and JJA in 2080 using SRESA 2 and SRESB 2 scenarios for nine General Circulation Models in one part of Citarum Watershed • Sce • Mont • CG • CSIR nario hs CM 2 O-mk 2 • A 2 • B 2 • DJF • 9. 16 • JJA • 8. 28 • DJF • 6. 52 • JJA • 15. 7 2 • 5. 09 • CS M 1. 3 • 0. 23 • GFD • CCS • ECHa LR/NIE • DOER 15 b • MRI 2 S 2 m 4 PCM • 52. 2 • -7. 3 1 • 10. 69 • 10. 62 • Had CM 3 • 2. 18 • 3. 65 • 12. 54 • 12. 6 • 3 • -44. 92 23. 83 • 5. 61 • -5. 08 • 10. 04 • 27. 38 • -2. 82 • 7. 56 • 7. 44 • -0. 25 • 12. 68 • 10. 0 • 1 • -13. 82 41. 68 Source: Provided by Xian Fu (2002). • 4. 02 • 2. 05 • 7. 85 • -2. 8 • 10. 72 • 15. 74 • 19. 05 • 14. 51 22

Land Use/Cover Change: The CLUE Model (Verlag, 2002) 23

Forest ecosystems: carbon 24

The CO 2 -Fix Model 25

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Water Resources: OVER-ALL VIC Model (Link with AS 07 Snidvongs et al. ) Liang et al. (1994) 27

River Network in Dynamic Routing Model Lohmann et al. (1996) 28

DATA For Model Data for VIC Model v Forcing Data § Precipitation § Maximum Temperature § Minimum Temperature § Wind speed v Template Data § Soil property § Land cover § Elevation Data for Routing Model § Elevation § Stream Network § Discharge Data 29

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Human dimension l l l Impacts and adaptation of local communities Primary and secondary data Field reconnaissance and establishment of rapport Participatory vulnerability and adaptation assessment Present vulnerability and adaptation of local communities to climate variability and extremes 31

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Human dimension (cont) l combination of participatory techniques such as stakeholder analysis, time line and community mapping l These techniques will be complemented by interviews of households l future impacts of climate change will be assessed based on the local people’s experiences and responses to past climate variability and extremes 33

Capacity Building l The training/workshop on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability November 25 to December 8, 2002 l 6 participants from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam l Small research grants provided 34

STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT Discussion with agriculture extension workers and farmers at Bandung District, Indonesia 35

NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan, Philippines 36

DENR Briefing, Philippines 37

CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines 38

Thank you! 39