Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies Dave Sauchyn

Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies Dave Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina North American Mushroom Conference, Vancouver, 23 June

What is climate change? Climate: from klima (ancient Greek) meaning inclination: a tendency, characteristic likelihood • climate is the statistics of weather • “weather is what we get, climate is what we expect” Climate change: a statistically significant variation in the mean climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades or longer).

Source: NASA <data. giss. nasa. gov/gistemp/graphs_v 3>

April 2013 was the 339 th consecutive month (more than 28 years) with a global temperature above the 20 th century average. Every month has been warmer than average since May, 1985.

Question 1 A recent study reviewed 13, 950 scientific articles on the topic of climate change. How many of these articles concluded that there was no human caused global warming? 6950 209 24 3210

Question 2 Anthropogenic (human caused) global warming is a relatively recent scientific discovery True False

Joseph Fourier (1768 – 1830) – 1824 Svante August Arrhenius (1859 – 1927) - 1896 Guy Stewart Callendar (1898 – 1964) - 1938

Question 3 The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere currently is 300 ppm 330 ppm 375 ppm 400 ppm

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Source: NASA <climate. nasa. gov/evidence>

The level of the most important heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, has passed a long-feared milestone, scientists reported Friday, reaching a concentration not seen on the Earth for millions of years. Scientific monitors reported that the gas had reached an average daily level that surpassed 400 parts per million – just an odometer moment in one sense, but also a sobering reminder that decades of efforts to bring humanproduced emissions under control are faltering.

data. giss. nasa. gov/gistemp/graphs/

Average Winter Temperatures (° C), Edmonton, 1881 -2010 1969: - 20° C

- 6° F = - 21° C David Sauchyn

Thanks to: Lawrence Zimmermann, Highline Mushrooms (Ontario) Burton Loveday, Loveday Mushrooms (Manitoba) Mike Manion, All Seasons Mushrooms (Alberta & BC) Don Needham, Hy-Tech Compost (U. S. )

Planting intentions for 2013 in M acres (Statistics Canada)

Global Crop Production http: //storymaps. esri. com/stories/feedingtheworld/

Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada Qian et al. 2010

GSS: growing season start GSE: growing season end Qian et al. 2010 EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD

Percentage of stations showing a significant positive trend (++) or a significant negative trend (--) EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD

Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the growing season and in the associated available heat. The winter temperature is less damaging and the frost-free periods are longer. We also find trends in precipitationrelated indices that indicate more availability of water, though the trend in the main agriculture region is less significant. QIAN et al. 2010

Interannual Variation in Moisture www. unesco. org CMI is a measure of variability in the ratio of plant water demand to precipitation. It is an indicator of highly variable climates potentially vulnerable to periodic water stress.

Inter-Annual Moisture Variability, North America

From: Sokhansanj et al. 2006. Production and distribution of cereal straw on the Canadian prairies.

Question 4 Have you ever experienced a shortage of wheat straw due poor growing conditions, too little or too rain, in a wheat producing area? Yes No

Annual Crop Yields (bu/ac), RM of Biggar, 1938 -2010 Source: www. agriculture. gov. sk. ca/rmyields Precipitation deficit, Saskatoon

October 2010 817 Natural Disasters

1. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1980 2. Freezing rain: Ontario to New Brunswick, Jan 6 -10 1998 3. Drought: Prairie provinces and Central and Southern ON, Jul 5 -11 1988 4. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1979 5. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1984 * Drought, Prairies, 2001 -02, $. 58 B

9. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1931 -1938 10. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1989 11. Hailstorm: Calgary AB, Sept 7 1991 12. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1961 13. Flood: Assiniboine, Red and Winnipeg Rivers MB, May 1997 14. Drought: Western Canada, 1985 15. Tornado: Edmonton AB, Jul 31 1987 16. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1977 17. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1990 18. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1992

Mean annual flow (m 3/s) North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1063 -2006 departures from the 1912 -2007 mean Sauchyn et al. 2011

Cycles in the tree rings

El Niño remote impacts: Teleconnections La Niña teleconnections have the opposite effect Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

Munich Reinsurance (2012) Severe weather in North America

"Best Management Practices: For the Agricultural Climate of Tomorrow” Vegreville, AB, March 26, 2009

THANKS! aaog. blogspot. ca