Wheat in 2030 INTERNATIONAL WHEAT CONFERENCE SYDNEY AUSTRALIA

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Wheat in 2030 INTERNATIONAL WHEAT CONFERENCE SYDNEY AUSTRALIA SEPTEMBER 20, 2015 Sanjaya Rajaram RESOURCE

Wheat in 2030 INTERNATIONAL WHEAT CONFERENCE SYDNEY AUSTRALIA SEPTEMBER 20, 2015 Sanjaya Rajaram RESOURCE SEEDS INTERNATIONAL TOLUCA, MÉXICO

GLOBAL POPULATION Current population: 7. 3 billion 2030 population: 8. 5 billion 2050 population:

GLOBAL POPULATION Current population: 7. 3 billion 2030 population: 8. 5 billion 2050 population: 9. 7 billion World Population Prospects, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2015

HUNGER VULNERABILITY Based on the food availability gap, rate of poverty, and stunting

HUNGER VULNERABILITY Based on the food availability gap, rate of poverty, and stunting

IMPORT TRENDS (2015) SOURCE: CIMMYT

IMPORT TRENDS (2015) SOURCE: CIMMYT

EXPORT TRENDS (2015) SOURCE: CIMMYT

EXPORT TRENDS (2015) SOURCE: CIMMYT

WHEAT DEMAND BY 2030 230 M ha wheat area (about the same distribution in

WHEAT DEMAND BY 2030 230 M ha wheat area (about the same distribution in developed and developing countries) 750 M ton produced now per year 1 billion per year will be required Current productivity: av. 3. 2 t per ha New productivity that we need: av. 4. 3 t per ha 1. 6% yield increase per year needed

CHALLENGES Population growth, poverty, and food security Climate change Environmental degradation Loss of biodiversity

CHALLENGES Population growth, poverty, and food security Climate change Environmental degradation Loss of biodiversity How will we meet demand in the face of such challenges?

DEPLETION OF ORGANIC CARBON OF CULTIVATED SOILS COMPARED WITH UNDISTURBED SOILS IN INDIA Region

DEPLETION OF ORGANIC CARBON OF CULTIVATED SOILS COMPARED WITH UNDISTURBED SOILS IN INDIA Region SOC Content Cultivated /g (kg) Native ( g/kg ) % Reduction 1. - North West Gangetic Plains Himalaya 4. 2 + 0. 9 24. 3 + 8. 7 10. 4 + 3. 6 34. 5 + 11. 6 59. 6 2. - North East 23. 2 + 10. 4 38. 3 + 23. 3 39. 4 3. - South East 29. 6 43. 7 + 23. 4 32. 3 4. - West Coast 13. 2 + 8. 1 18. 6 + 2. 1 29. 1 5. - Deccan Plateau 7. 7 + 4. 1 17. 9 + 7. 6 57. 0

TECHNOLOGICAL INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASED YIELDS & STABILITY 1. 2. 3. 4. WIDESPREAD USE OF

TECHNOLOGICAL INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASED YIELDS & STABILITY 1. 2. 3. 4. WIDESPREAD USE OF HYBRIDS IN GLOBAL SETTING. APPLICATION OF GM TECHNOLOGY TO PROTECT AGAINST PESTS. USE OF CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE TO MAINTAIN THE SOIL HEALTH. A ROBUST SEED SYSTEM IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.

5. MAINTAINING GENETIC BASE OF OUR FUTURE VARIETIES: DIVERSE, ROBUST AND FORTIFIED WITH MULTIPLE

5. MAINTAINING GENETIC BASE OF OUR FUTURE VARIETIES: DIVERSE, ROBUST AND FORTIFIED WITH MULTIPLE GENES FOR DISEASE RESISTANCE. 6. INVOLVEMENT OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN WHEAT R&D, INCLUDING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. 7. STRENGTHENING OF INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH SYSTEMS – ESPECIALLY THOSE OF CGIAR – TO KEEP GERMPLASM FLOWING FREELY TO THOSE WHO WANT IT.

NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN WHEAT Hybrid wheat GM wheat

NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN WHEAT Hybrid wheat GM wheat

WATER USE • • Replacing inefficient irrigation systems with more precise methods like subsurface

WATER USE • • Replacing inefficient irrigation systems with more precise methods like subsurface drip irrigation Harvesting rain water at individual farms to increase efficiency in growing horticultural and fruit crops

HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT • Need better training because we need a different kind of

HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT • Need better training because we need a different kind of scientists to meet the future challenges

PUBLIC - PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS • Clearly defined policies that allow for meaningful PPP •

PUBLIC - PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS • Clearly defined policies that allow for meaningful PPP • We talk about PPP but many countries do not have the needed mechanisms in place to make them actually work

ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL CENTERS ANS NARS Much more synergy needed + the National Agricultural

ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL CENTERS ANS NARS Much more synergy needed + the National Agricultural Research Systems

MY CHALLENGE TO YOU: What will YOU do in your country?

MY CHALLENGE TO YOU: What will YOU do in your country?

THANK YOU

THANK YOU