Chapter 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses COGNITIVE NON COG

Chapter 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses • • • COGNITIVE & NON COG ABILITIES PERSONALITY CRITERIA CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 1

Conceptual & Operational Definitions Predictors & Criteria F. Kerlinger’s definitions ◦ Concept or construct: What’s the difference? ◦ Theory v. hypothesis: what’s the difference? Predictive Hypothesis: ◦ Grounded in theory (explanation relationships) ◦ Predictors & Criteria: defined at two levels: ◦ conceptual & operational: What’s the difference? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 2

Predictors (KSAOs, other attributes) ◦ (independent vars for experimental research) ◦ Give some examples with operational definitions Criteria (performance/results) ◦ Outcomes (dependent vars for experimental research) ◦ Give some examples with operational definitions CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 3

Theory Building and Testing fig 3. 1 p 53 (2 nd ed) 1. Theory: ◦ predictor construct (height) is related to ◦ criterion construct (basketballability) 2. Predictive hypothesis (testable): ◦ predictor measure (height in inches) is related to ◦ Criterion measure (number of dunks in 2 minutes) 3. Predictor measure is valid measure of height 4. Criterion measure is a valid measure of basketballability 5. Predictor measure is related to the Criterion construct ◦ (confirms prediction and supports theory) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 4

Theory and Practice Specification of Population ◦ For what populations does theory hold? ◦ Why would this be important? ◦ Give some examples, ◦ e. g. women in the military? ◦ Geographical differences? Specification of time intervals ◦ What’s the optimal timeframe for criterion collection? ◦ What should be the length of time for criterion collection? ◦ Give examples for jobs with different learning curves CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 5

A Theory of Performance is a construct ◦ “Can do” examples: ◦ Skills ◦ Knowledges ◦ Declarative knowledge ◦ Procedural knowledge ◦ Abilities ◦ Aptitude ◦ Competencies - ◦ Motivation (“will do”) ◦ Direction, degree, persistence of effort CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 6

Performance (con’t) Lewin’s formula? ◦ What is it? Campbell’s 8 factor model of Job Performance and Competence ◦ Table 3. 1 (2 nd ed) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Task Performance and Job Knowledge Motivation and Effort Quality of Work Communication Ability (Oral & Written) Leadership / Supervision Administrative Competence Teamwork Emotional Intelligence CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 7

Specifying functional relationships ◦ Linear ◦ Give examples linear relationships ◦ Curvilinear ◦ Give examples of curvilinear relationships CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 8

Criteria Criterion constructs ◦ ◦ ◦ Inferring Constructs from Measures A theory of Performance Components and Determinants Contextual Behavior Trainability CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 9

Predictors & Predictive Hypotheses Avoid “folklore theories” ◦ Use standardized measures proven to work ◦ E. g. Cognitive ability, which is usually superior to non-cognitive measures. Cognitive Factors (ability to think) ◦ perceive, process, evaluate, compare, create, ◦ Understand, manipulate (ideas), reason ◦ 75 years of Factor Analytic studies CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 10

Cognitive 7 Primary Mental abilities ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Verbal comprehension Word fluency Spatial ability Perceptual speed Numerical facility Memory Inductive reasoning Associative & Span memory CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 11

Cognitive Abilities General Mental Ability (GMA) intelligence ◦ “Processes of ◦ ◦ ◦ Acquiring, Storing (memory) Retrieving Combining, (relationships) Comparing, (relationships) Using in context new concepts (abstraction)” ◦ (Humphreys, ‘ 79) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 12

GMA Spearman’s (1927)“g” ◦ Fluid intelligence (Gf) ◦ Basic reasoning ◦ Crystallized intelligence (Gc) ◦ Acquired knowledge (e. g. vocabulary tests) Carroll (1993) using factor analytic studies ◦ Three stratum model ◦ First order factors (several) ◦ Second order factors (R. B. Cattell’s Gf, Gc) ◦ Third order “g” (like Spearman’s) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 13

Job Specific Ks & Ss O*Net – three occupational skills list ◦ Basic ◦ Cross functional ◦ Occupation specific Think of some for the IO psychologist’s job CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 14

Personality Constructs Trait – habitual way of thinking or behaving in response to a variety of situations. ◦ Value, goal, beh tendency to seek or avoid ◦ Sometimes role specific ◦ What does this mean? ◦ Called “work styles” “occupational values” (O*Net) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 15

Personality Five Factor Model (universal) ◦ NEO (CANOE) Memorize the five traits Guion & Highhouse ◦ ◦ ◦ Surgency (extravert, dominance, assertive) Agreeableness (likeability, friendly) Conscientiousness (responsible, dependable) Emotional Stability Open to experience (intellectance) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 16

Personality Integrity and conscientiousness ◦ Not engaging in counter-productive behavior ◦ ◦ Stealing, embezzlement cheating customers Others? ◦ Trustworthy ◦ Work hard without surveillance CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 17

Personality Other traits (just a few) ◦ Core Self-evaluation (Judge, Eraz, Bono) ◦ Locus of Control (Rotter) ◦ Smith, Trompenaars & Dugan (2007) ◦ PA/NA (positive/ negative affect) ◦ Watson, Clark, Lee Tellegen (1988) ◦ GCOS ◦ General Causality Scale Description (Deci & Ryan) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 18

Personality some questions Are traits malleable? Are they job specific? How, if so should they be used in selection? What needs to be done to improve their use? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 19

Physical and Sensory Competencies What effect has ADA had? Physical Characteristics ◦ At what cost are accommodations to the workplace (for ADA? ) ◦ Find some examples? ◦ What role does human factors psych play? Physical Abilities ◦ E. Fleishman, R. Hogan (have studied them) ◦ Are they important in sports? ◦ Are they important in the military? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 20

Non-Cognitive Emotional Intelligence (Goleman, ‘ 95) ◦ Perceive, appraise, express emotions ◦ (Mayer & Salovey, ‘ 97) ◦ Lacks conceptual coherence ◦ Not psychometrically sound ◦ Redundant with other measures? ◦ E. g. cognitive ability, personality traits? ◦ (Matthews, Roberts, & Zeidner, ‘ 04) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 21

Experience, Education, Training Credentials are rarely useful ◦ Unless based on a Job Analysis Some majors may be useful ◦ If knowledge is comparable to professions ◦ Can you think of some? Can competencies be assessed via testing? ◦ What would Prometric say? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 22

Team Selection Predictors Technical (often needed) Stevens & Campion (‘ 94) Team KSAs ◦ Interpersonal & Self-management ◦ The knowledge, skill, and ability requirements for teamwork: Implications for human resource management (Michael J. Stevens Michael A. Campion, ‘ 94) ◦ Staffing Work Teams: Development and Validation of a Selection Test for Teamwork Settings (Stevens & Campion, ‘ 99) ◦ Selection in Teams: An Exploration of the Teamwork Knowledge, Skills, and Ability Test (Mc. Clough & Rogelberg, ‘ 03) ◦ Use of situational judgment tests to predict job performance: A clarification of the literature. (Mc. Daniel, et al. ‘ 01) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 23