Chapter 10 Decision Support Systems Expert Systems Why

Chapter 10 Decision Support Systems & Expert Systems

Why Study Decision Support Systems? n Today, companies are investing in new data-driven decision support application frameworks that help them n respond rapidly to n changing market conditions and n customer needs.

Information, Decisions and Management

Levels of Management Decision Making n Strategic – group of executives develop overall organizational goals, strategies, policies, and objectives n n strategic planning process ERPs, EISs, and DSSs play an important role

Levels of Management Decision Making n Tactical – managers and business professionals in self-directed teams n n n develop short- and medium-range plans schedules and budgets specify policies, procedures develop objectives for their subunits DSSs, MISs, SCMs help make decisions at this level

Levels of Management Decision Making n Operational – managers or members of self-directed teams develop short-range plans such as n n weekly production schedules employee scheduling assigning tasks and objectives MISs, TSPs, and PCSs help at this level.

Information Quality Definition: n Information products whose characteristics, attributes, or qualities make the information more value n All these systems work to n n Make data into information Increate the value of information

Decision Structured – situations where the procedures to follow when a decision is needed can be specified in advance n Unstructured – decision situations where it is not possible to specify in advance most of the decision procedures to follow n Semi structured - decision procedures that can be prespecified, but not enough to lead to a definite recommended decision

MIS vs. DSS

Management Information Systems (MIS) Definition: n An information system that produces information products that support many of the day-to-day decision-making needs of managers and business professionals

Management Reporting Alternatives n Periodic Scheduled Reports n Exception Reports n Demand Reports and Responses n Push Reporting

Decision Support Systems (DSS) Definition: n Provide interactive information support to managers and business professionals during the decision-making process n n Analytical models (Model Base) Specialized databases A decision maker’s own insights and judgments An interactive, computer-based modeling process

Model Base (part of DSS) Definition: n Software component that consists of models used in computational and analytical routines that mathematically express relationships among variables

OLAP: Online Analytical Processing (part of DSS) Definition: n Enables mangers and analysts to interactively examine and manipulate large amounts of detailed and consolidated data from many perspectives

OLAP Operations n Consolidation – aggregation of data n Drill-down – detail data that comprise consolidated data n Slice and Dice – ability to look at the database from different viewpoints

OLAP Technology

MIS vs DSS n DSS tends to use data from many different sources: n n Operational Database Data Marts Data Warehouses An MIS tends to draw information from one source usually an operational database.

Unique to DSS n What-if Analysis – end user makes changes to variables, or relationships among variables, and observes the resulting changes in the values of other variables n Sensitivity Analysis – value of only one variable is changed repeatedly and the resulting changes in other variables are observed

Unique to DSS n Goal-Seeking – set a target value for a variable and then repeatedly change other variables until the target value is achieved n Optimization – goal is to find the optimum value for one or more target variables given certain constraints then one or more other variables are changed repeatedly until the best values for the target variables are discovered

Data Mining (used more in DSS than MIS) n Data mining analyzes the vast data in corporate data warehouses, and tries to discover n n n patterns, trends, and correlations hidden in the data that can help a company improve its business performance. Data mining software may perform regression, decision tree, neural network, cluster detection, or market basket analysis for a business.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Definition: n A field of science and technology based on disciplines such as computer science, biology, psychology, linguistics, mathematics, and engineering n Goal is to develop computers that can simulate the ability to think, as well as see, hear, walk, talk, and feel

Attributes of Intelligent Behavior n n n n n Think and reason Use reason to solve problems Learn or understand from experience Acquire and apply knowledge Exhibit creativity and imagination Deal with complex or perplexing situations Respond quickly and successfully to new situations Recognize the relative importance of elements in a situation Handle ambiguous, incomplete, or erroneous information

Domains of Artificial Intelligence

Cognitive Science Definition: n Focuses on researching how the human brain works and how humans think and learn

Robotics Definition: n Robot machines with computer intelligence and computer controlled, humanlike physical capabilities

Natural Interfaces Definition: n Includes natural language, speech recognition, and the development of multisensory devices that use a variety of body movements to operate computers

Expert Systems Definition: n A knowledge-based information system that uses its knowledge about a specific, complex application to act as an expert consultant to end users

Expert System Components n Knowledge Base – facts about specific subject area and heuristics that express the reasoning procedures of an expert n Software Resources – inference engine and other programs refining knowledge and communicating with users

Expert System Benefits n Faster and more consistent than an expert n Can have the knowledge of several experts n Does not get tired or distracted by overwork or stress n Helps preserve and reproduce the knowledge of experts

Expert System Limitations n Limited focus n Inability to learn n Maintenance problems n Developmental costs

Expert System Categories n Decision Making n n buy/sell risk/no risk rain/no rain Trouble Shooting / Diagnosis n n n Selection/Classification n n Tell me what you see, expert system figures out what it really is. . . Process Monitoring and Control n Robot control, assembly-line control, missile control Hello welcome to Dell; how can I help you? n Design/Configuration n Specify what you want, expert Suddenly an idiot system figures out specifically seems like an expert. how to do it.

Expert System Components Expert System Software User Interface user Engine Knowledge base

Expert System Components Expert System Software User Interface Engine Knowledge base user Expert System Development Process Knowledge Acquisition Program Expert or Knowledge Engineer Raw Data or Facts

Expert System Components Non-expert Grunt Robot Missile Expert System Software Interface Engine Knowledge base user Expert System Development Process Knowledge Acquisition Program Expert or Knowledge Engineer Raw Data or Facts

DSS Components Someone with Knowledge DSS Software Model Base User Interface Analytical & Statistical Models Engine Decision Maker DSS Processes Data Management Extraction, Generation, Validation, etc. Raw Data or Facts