Ag Market Outlook Mar 6 2020 Chad Hart

Ag Market Outlook Mar. 6, 2020 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Value of Ag Trade Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Ag Exports Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. -China Deal Key Passages For the category of agricultural goods identified in Annex 6. 1, no less than $12. 5 billion above the corresponding 2017 baseline amount is purchased and imported into China from the United States in calendar year 2020, and no less than $19. 5 billion above the corresponding 2017 baseline amount is purchased and imported into China from the United States in calendar year 2021; The Parties project that the trajectory of increases in the amounts of manufactured goods, agricultural goods, energy products, and services purchased and imported into China from the United States will continue in calendar years 2022 through 2025. The Parties acknowledge that purchases will be made at market prices based on commercial considerations and that market conditions, particularly in the case of agricultural goods, may dictate the timing of purchases within any given year. Source: USTR Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Looking Forward Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 94. 0 90. 2 88. 9 89. 7 94. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 174. 6 176. 4 168. 0 178. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 15, 148 14, 609 14, 340 13, 692 15, 460 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 2, 221 1, 892 Imports (mil. bu. ) 57 36 28 50 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 16, 942 16, 939 16, 509 15, 962 17, 377 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 470 5, 304 5, 432 5, 525 5, 800 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 432 5, 605 5, 376 5, 425 5, 450 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 453 1, 451 1, 425 1, 390 Exports (mil. bu. ) 2, 294 2, 438 2, 065 1, 725 2, 100 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 14, 649 14, 799 14, 288 14, 070 14, 740 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 2, 293 2, 140 2, 221 1, 892 2, 637 3. 36 3. 61 3. 85 3. 60 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83. 4 90. 2 89. 2 76. 1 85. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 52. 0 49. 3 50. 6 47. 4 49. 8 Production (mil. bu. ) 4, 296 4, 412 4, 428 3, 558 4, 195 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 197 302 438 909 425 Imports (mil. bu. ) 22 22 14 15 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 515 4, 735 4, 880 4, 482 4, 635 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 901 2, 055 2, 092 2, 105 2, 130 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 146 113 131 128 134 Exports (mil. bu. ) 2, 166 2, 129 1, 748 1, 825 2, 050 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 4, 214 4, 297 3, 971 4, 008 4, 314 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 302 438 909 425 320 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 9. 47 9. 33 8. 48 8. 75 8. 80 Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Spring Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Estimated Yields Top: 2019 yield estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Estimated Yields Top: 2019 yield estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 3. 75 3. 72 Source: CME Group, 3/5/2020 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 8. 82 8. 65 Source: CME Group, 3/5/2020 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2019/20 Crop Price Projections Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2020/21 Crop Price Projections Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Seasonal Pricing Patterns Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 1980 -2018

Corn Prices and Sales Sources: USDA, NASS & ERS, Monthly Price Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Data 1980 -2018

Soybean Prices and Sales Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Sources: USDA, NASS & ERS, Monthly Price Data 1980 -2018

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa State University is an equal opportunity provider. For the full non-discrimination statement or accommodation inquiries, go to www. extension. iastate. edu/diversity/ext. Iowa State University ofrece igualdad de oportunidades. Para ver la declaración completa de no discriminación o para consultas de acomodación, siga a este vinculo: www. extension. iastate. edu/diversity/ext. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics