Ag Market Outlook Mar 27 2019 Chad Hart

  • Slides: 29
Download presentation
Ag Market Outlook Mar. 27, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu

Ag Market Outlook Mar. 27, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Global Shares Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Global Shares Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Arable land Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Arable land Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 88. 0 94.

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 88. 0 94. 0 90. 2 89. 1 92. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 168. 4 174. 6 176. 4 176. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 602 15, 148 14, 609 14, 420 14, 890 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 835 Imports (mil. bu. ) 67 57 36 40 40 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 15, 401 16, 942 16, 939 16, 600 16, 765 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 120 5, 470 5, 304 5, 375 5, 500 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 224 5, 432 5, 605 5, 550 5, 575 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 422 1, 453 1, 451 1, 465 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 898 2, 294 2, 438 2, 375 2, 475 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 664 14, 649 14, 799 14, 765 15, 015 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 835 1, 750 3. 61 3. 36 3. 55 3. 65 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil.

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82. 7 83. 4 90. 2 89. 2 85. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 48. 0 52. 0 49. 3 51. 6 49. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 926 4, 296 4, 412 4, 544 4, 175 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 191 197 302 438 900 Imports (mil. bu. ) 24 22 22 20 20 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 140 4, 515 4, 735 5, 002 5, 095 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 886 1, 901 2, 055 2, 100 2, 105 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 122 146 113 127 130 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 936 2, 166 2, 129 1, 875 2, 025 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 944 4, 214 4, 297 4, 102 4, 260 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 197 302 438 900 835 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 8. 95 9. 47 9. 33 8. 60 8. 80 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 3. 94 3. 54 Source: CME Group, 3/27/2019 Extension and Outreach/Department

Current Corn Futures 3. 94 3. 54 Source: CME Group, 3/27/2019 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 11 8. 61 Source: CME Group, 3/27/2019 Extension and Outreach/Department

Current Soybean Futures 9. 11 8. 61 Source: CME Group, 3/27/2019 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ.

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics