Ag Market Outlook Mar 27 2019 Chad Hart
- Slides: 29
Ag Market Outlook Mar. 27, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Global Shares Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Arable land Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 88. 0 94. 0 90. 2 89. 1 92. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 168. 4 174. 6 176. 4 176. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 602 15, 148 14, 609 14, 420 14, 890 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 835 Imports (mil. bu. ) 67 57 36 40 40 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 15, 401 16, 942 16, 939 16, 600 16, 765 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 120 5, 470 5, 304 5, 375 5, 500 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 224 5, 432 5, 605 5, 550 5, 575 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 422 1, 453 1, 451 1, 465 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 898 2, 294 2, 438 2, 375 2, 475 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 664 14, 649 14, 799 14, 765 15, 015 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 835 1, 750 3. 61 3. 36 3. 55 3. 65 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82. 7 83. 4 90. 2 89. 2 85. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 48. 0 52. 0 49. 3 51. 6 49. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 926 4, 296 4, 412 4, 544 4, 175 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 191 197 302 438 900 Imports (mil. bu. ) 24 22 22 20 20 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 140 4, 515 4, 735 5, 002 5, 095 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 886 1, 901 2, 055 2, 100 2, 105 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 122 146 113 127 130 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 936 2, 166 2, 129 1, 875 2, 025 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 944 4, 214 4, 297 4, 102 4, 260 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 197 302 438 900 835 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 8. 95 9. 47 9. 33 8. 60 8. 80 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures 3. 94 3. 54 Source: CME Group, 3/27/2019 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures 9. 11 8. 61 Source: CME Group, 3/27/2019 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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