Unemployment in South Africa Descriptors Determinants International Dispute
![Unemployment in South Africa Descriptors & Determinants International Dispute Resolution Agencies’ Conference Mount Nelson Unemployment in South Africa Descriptors & Determinants International Dispute Resolution Agencies’ Conference Mount Nelson](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-1.jpg)
![OVERVIEW A Descriptive and Econometric Overview Causes of Unemployment in South Africa: A Line-Up OVERVIEW A Descriptive and Econometric Overview Causes of Unemployment in South Africa: A Line-Up](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-2.jpg)
![• Population: 40. 2 million • Life Expectancy at birth: 47. 7 • • Population: 40. 2 million • Life Expectancy at birth: 47. 7 •](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-3.jpg)
![Unemployment Rates Around the World Source: ILO (2007) Unemployment Rates Around the World Source: ILO (2007)](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-4.jpg)
![Unemployment In South Africa: The First Decade of Democracy National Unemployment Rate: 1995 -2005 Unemployment In South Africa: The First Decade of Democracy National Unemployment Rate: 1995 -2005](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-5.jpg)
![Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Race & Gender 53% 47% Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Race & Gender 53% 47%](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-6.jpg)
![Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Age Distribution 34% Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Age Distribution 34%](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-7.jpg)
![Youth Unemployment Rates: The Global Context Source: KILM, 2007 Youth Unemployment Rates: The Global Context Source: KILM, 2007](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-8.jpg)
![Unemployment Rates by Education Level Unemployment Rates by Education Level](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-9.jpg)
![Unemployment: Multivariate Independent Variable Analysis d. F/dx Std. Err. z Coloured 0. 082 0. Unemployment: Multivariate Independent Variable Analysis d. F/dx Std. Err. z Coloured 0. 082 0.](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-10.jpg)
![The Markers of Unemployment in South Africa Race, Gender, Age, Location & Schooling serve The Markers of Unemployment in South Africa Race, Gender, Age, Location & Schooling serve](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-11.jpg)
![Two Worrying Footnotes: 1 The Legacy of Apartheid Schooling Variable/For mer Department High School Two Worrying Footnotes: 1 The Legacy of Apartheid Schooling Variable/For mer Department High School](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-12.jpg)
![Two Worrying Footnotes: 2 The Composition of Graduate Unemployment 200, 000 (3%) of all Two Worrying Footnotes: 2 The Composition of Graduate Unemployment 200, 000 (3%) of all](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-13.jpg)
![Possible Causes of Unemployment in South Africa Output & Employment LFP Growth Rates Labour Possible Causes of Unemployment in South Africa Output & Employment LFP Growth Rates Labour](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-14.jpg)
![Output and Employment Simple GDP Elasticity of Total Employment Annual Percentage Change in: Total Output and Employment Simple GDP Elasticity of Total Employment Annual Percentage Change in: Total](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-15.jpg)
![Output-Employment Elasticity: Comparable Measures Source: KILM, 2007 Output-Employment Elasticity: Comparable Measures Source: KILM, 2007](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-16.jpg)
![Post-Apartheid Labour Supply Trends Category 1995 (Oct) (‘ 000 s) 2005 (Sep) (‘ 000 Post-Apartheid Labour Supply Trends Category 1995 (Oct) (‘ 000 s) 2005 (Sep) (‘ 000](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-17.jpg)
![Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 1 Skilled Employment: Share increased from 9 to 11% Semi-skilled Employment: Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 1 Skilled Employment: Share increased from 9 to 11% Semi-skilled Employment:](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-18.jpg)
![Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 2 Industry-Based Relative Demand Shift Between- and Share of Measured by Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 2 Industry-Based Relative Demand Shift Between- and Share of Measured by](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-19.jpg)
![Wages & Employment Wage-Employment Elasticities by Main Sector, 1990 -1998 Sector & 1990 -93 Wages & Employment Wage-Employment Elasticities by Main Sector, 1990 -1998 Sector & 1990 -93](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-20.jpg)
![Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils Union-Wage Premia in the SA Labour Market, 2005 Dependent Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils Union-Wage Premia in the SA Labour Market, 2005 Dependent](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-21.jpg)
![Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-22.jpg)
![Looking Ahead: Pro-Poor Growth? Growth path in the 1995 -2000 period biased against the Looking Ahead: Pro-Poor Growth? Growth path in the 1995 -2000 period biased against the](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-23.jpg)
![Pro-Poor Growth and the Informal Economy Pro-Poor Growth and the Informal Economy](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-24.jpg)
![Unemployment in South Africa: Possible Solutions Fix the Higher Education System to Focus on Unemployment in South Africa: Possible Solutions Fix the Higher Education System to Focus on](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-25.jpg)
- Slides: 25
![Unemployment in South Africa Descriptors Determinants International Dispute Resolution Agencies Conference Mount Nelson Unemployment in South Africa Descriptors & Determinants International Dispute Resolution Agencies’ Conference Mount Nelson](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-1.jpg)
Unemployment in South Africa Descriptors & Determinants International Dispute Resolution Agencies’ Conference Mount Nelson Hotel, Cape Town 22 -25 th October HAROON BHORAT School of Economics & Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town E-mail: haroon. bhorat@uct. ac. za Website: www. commerce. uct. ac. za/dpru/
![OVERVIEW A Descriptive and Econometric Overview Causes of Unemployment in South Africa A LineUp OVERVIEW A Descriptive and Econometric Overview Causes of Unemployment in South Africa: A Line-Up](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-2.jpg)
OVERVIEW A Descriptive and Econometric Overview Causes of Unemployment in South Africa: A Line-Up of the Usual Suspects A Menu of Possible Interventions
![Population 40 2 million Life Expectancy at birth 47 7 • Population: 40. 2 million • Life Expectancy at birth: 47. 7 •](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-3.jpg)
• Population: 40. 2 million • Life Expectancy at birth: 47. 7 • GDP (current prices): $255 bill. • GNI per capita: $5390 • Merch. Trade (% of GDP): 47. 1 • Total Debt Service: 6. 9 • Internet users: 108. 8 per 1000
![Unemployment Rates Around the World Source ILO 2007 Unemployment Rates Around the World Source: ILO (2007)](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-4.jpg)
Unemployment Rates Around the World Source: ILO (2007)
![Unemployment In South Africa The First Decade of Democracy National Unemployment Rate 1995 2005 Unemployment In South Africa: The First Decade of Democracy National Unemployment Rate: 1995 -2005](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-5.jpg)
Unemployment In South Africa: The First Decade of Democracy National Unemployment Rate: 1995 -2005 Unemployed numbered approximately 7. 8 million individuals in 2005 Discouraged work seekers constitute 42% of broadly unemployed Data Quality & Reliability.
![Unemployment Rates In South Africa Race Gender 53 47 Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Race & Gender 53% 47%](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-6.jpg)
Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Race & Gender 53% 47%
![Unemployment Rates In South Africa Age Distribution 34 Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Age Distribution 34%](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-7.jpg)
Unemployment Rates In South Africa: Age Distribution 34%
![Youth Unemployment Rates The Global Context Source KILM 2007 Youth Unemployment Rates: The Global Context Source: KILM, 2007](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-8.jpg)
Youth Unemployment Rates: The Global Context Source: KILM, 2007
![Unemployment Rates by Education Level Unemployment Rates by Education Level](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-9.jpg)
Unemployment Rates by Education Level
![Unemployment Multivariate Independent Variable Analysis d Fdx Std Err z Coloured 0 082 0 Unemployment: Multivariate Independent Variable Analysis d. F/dx Std. Err. z Coloured 0. 082 0.](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-10.jpg)
Unemployment: Multivariate Independent Variable Analysis d. F/dx Std. Err. z Coloured 0. 082 0. 013748 5. 70 Asian 0. 220 0. 0167439 9. 76 White 0. 304 0. 0102678 18. 26 Female -0. 114 0. 0080705 -14. 06 25 -34 years -0. 007 0. 0249169 -0. 26 35 -44 years 0. 129 0. 0224165 5. 42 45 -54 years 0. 232 0. 016194 11. 81 55 -65 years 0. 341 0. 0060921 28. 91 No education to Incomplete GET -0. 003 0. 0018769 -1. 61 Complete GET -0. 011 0. 0042696 -2. 59 Complete High School 0. 017 0. 0130646 1. 28 Diploma 0. 212 0. 0126801 13. 62 University Degree 0. 065 0. 0200266 3. 21 Metro -0. 016 0. 0090603 -1. 77 Lambda -0. 345 0. 0356939 -9. 67
![The Markers of Unemployment in South Africa Race Gender Age Location Schooling serve The Markers of Unemployment in South Africa Race, Gender, Age, Location & Schooling serve](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-11.jpg)
The Markers of Unemployment in South Africa Race, Gender, Age, Location & Schooling serve as the key attributes defining and explaining broad and narrow unemployment rates in South Africa. The failure of the schooling system & in part, the further education & training System (FET) is particularly important for policy formulation. Differentiating between the unemployed and the unemployable.
![Two Worrying Footnotes 1 The Legacy of Apartheid Schooling VariableFor mer Department High School Two Worrying Footnotes: 1 The Legacy of Apartheid Schooling Variable/For mer Department High School](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-12.jpg)
Two Worrying Footnotes: 1 The Legacy of Apartheid Schooling Variable/For mer Department High School Pass Rate Pupil. Teacher Ratio Schools with User Fees African White 48. 39 95. 14 31. 04 23. 72 0. 20 0. 92 A bifurcated schooling system, where disadvantage is still located within former African Schools Management of schools; knowledge infrastructure; Teacher Quality
![Two Worrying Footnotes 2 The Composition of Graduate Unemployment 200 000 3 of all Two Worrying Footnotes: 2 The Composition of Graduate Unemployment 200, 000 (3%) of all](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-13.jpg)
Two Worrying Footnotes: 2 The Composition of Graduate Unemployment 200, 000 (3%) of all Ue are ‘graduates’ (up from 2% in 1995) Only 18% of unemployed graduates have degrees: Clearly the bulk of the problem is with diplomas and certificates
![Possible Causes of Unemployment in South Africa Output Employment LFP Growth Rates Labour Possible Causes of Unemployment in South Africa Output & Employment LFP Growth Rates Labour](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-14.jpg)
Possible Causes of Unemployment in South Africa Output & Employment LFP Growth Rates Labour Demand-Supply Mismatch Wages and Employment The Role of Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils The Nature of Economic Growth
![Output and Employment Simple GDP Elasticity of Total Employment Annual Percentage Change in Total Output and Employment Simple GDP Elasticity of Total Employment Annual Percentage Change in: Total](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-15.jpg)
Output and Employment Simple GDP Elasticity of Total Employment Annual Percentage Change in: Total Employment GDP Elasticity 1990 -1995 0. 13 0. 8 0. 16 1995 -2005 2. 60 3. 27 0. 80 No Evidence for Jobless Growth Thesis For Given Level of Growth, Employment Expansion Adequate The Nature of the Growth Path…. .
![OutputEmployment Elasticity Comparable Measures Source KILM 2007 Output-Employment Elasticity: Comparable Measures Source: KILM, 2007](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-16.jpg)
Output-Employment Elasticity: Comparable Measures Source: KILM, 2007
![PostApartheid Labour Supply Trends Category 1995 Oct 000 s 2005 Sep 000 Post-Apartheid Labour Supply Trends Category 1995 (Oct) (‘ 000 s) 2005 (Sep) (‘ 000](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-17.jpg)
Post-Apartheid Labour Supply Trends Category 1995 (Oct) (‘ 000 s) 2005 (Sep) (‘ 000 s) Change Absolute (‘ 000 s) Target Growth Rate Employment Absorption Rate Percent Broad Definition Estimates Employment 9 515 12301 2786 29. 28 4 239 7800 3561 84. 01 13 754 20100 6346 46. 14 Unemployment (broad) Labour Force 66. 69 43. 90
![SkillsBiased Employment Growth 1 Skilled Employment Share increased from 9 to 11 Semiskilled Employment Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 1 Skilled Employment: Share increased from 9 to 11% Semi-skilled Employment:](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-18.jpg)
Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 1 Skilled Employment: Share increased from 9 to 11% Semi-skilled Employment: Share increased from 59 to 61% Unskilled Employment: Share declined from 31 to 27%
![SkillsBiased Employment Growth 2 IndustryBased Relative Demand Shift Between and Share of Measured by Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 2 Industry-Based Relative Demand Shift Between- and Share of Measured by](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-19.jpg)
Skills-Biased Employment Growth: 2 Industry-Based Relative Demand Shift Between- and Share of Measured by Occupation, 1995 Betwe within-sector shifts Within Total within in en Total 2005 estimates for 1995 Manager 1. 28 18. 24 19. 52 93. 46 -2005: SBTC Professional 1. 42 7. 50 8. 92 84. 08 evident. Clerical 2. 43 14. 66 17. 09 85. 78 Service 2. 24 14. 34 16. 58 86. 50 The nature & Agric. -0. 17 -17. 23 -17. 40 99. 00 trajectory of labour Craft demand results in 2. 39 14. 68 17. 08 85. 99 Oper. & A the co-existence of 0. 73 5. 20 5. 93 87. 62 an excess supply of Elementary. -0. 13 -0. 53 -0. 66 80. 37 Domestic labour with a Workers 1. 48 10. 16 11. 64 87. 26 chronic skills shortage in the
![Wages Employment WageEmployment Elasticities by Main Sector 1990 1998 Sector 1990 93 Wages & Employment Wage-Employment Elasticities by Main Sector, 1990 -1998 Sector & 1990 -93](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-20.jpg)
Wages & Employment Wage-Employment Elasticities by Main Sector, 1990 -1998 Sector & 1990 -93 1994 -98 Mining & Quarrying -0. 19 -0. 96* Manufacturing -0. 06 -0. 45* Construction -0. 49* -0. 63* Utilities -0. 02 -0. 03 -0. 13 0. 50* -0. 1 -0. 22 0. 20* -0. 01 Commerce, Catering Accommodation Transport & Communication Financial Services Community, Social & 0. 05 Personal Services -0. 50* Private Sector Total -0. 53** -0. 35** Elasticity value not unusual for developing country estimates Translate into, ceteris parabus, an argument for wage adjustments? Source: Fields et al. 1999
![Trade Unions Bargaining Councils UnionWage Premia in the SA Labour Market 2005 Dependent Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils Union-Wage Premia in the SA Labour Market, 2005 Dependent](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-21.jpg)
Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils Union-Wage Premia in the SA Labour Market, 2005 Dependent Variable: Log of Monthly Earnings Quantile: OLS 0. 1 0. 25 0. 75 0. 9 Private Sector BC Member 0. 03 0. 05 0. 01 0. 02 -0. 01 Public Sector BC Member 0. 28* 0. 32* 0. 33* 0. 26* 0. 19* Union 0. 23* 0. 35* 0. 31* 0. 27* 0. 21* 0. 15* Union-wage premia very high by international standards Role of bargaining councils (and renewed power of public sector BC) not to be under-
![Trade Unions Bargaining Councils Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-22.jpg)
Trade Unions & Bargaining Councils
![Looking Ahead ProPoor Growth Growth path in the 1995 2000 period biased against the Looking Ahead: Pro-Poor Growth? Growth path in the 1995 -2000 period biased against the](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-23.jpg)
Looking Ahead: Pro-Poor Growth? Growth path in the 1995 -2000 period biased against the poor State Transfers in post-2000 period assist in spreading gains from growth
![ProPoor Growth and the Informal Economy Pro-Poor Growth and the Informal Economy](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-24.jpg)
Pro-Poor Growth and the Informal Economy
![Unemployment in South Africa Possible Solutions Fix the Higher Education System to Focus on Unemployment in South Africa: Possible Solutions Fix the Higher Education System to Focus on](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/2cd1e0dc7f88dcfcf6aacda36901a338/image-25.jpg)
Unemployment in South Africa: Possible Solutions Fix the Higher Education System to Focus on Narrowing Gap Between Supply & Demand Improve Employment Placement (Information Asymmetries) A dual (youth/non-youth) labour market A Youth Cadet Service for the Public Sector Ø Picking Winners in the Schooling System
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