Uncertainty climate scenarios and adaptation Suraje Dessai Tyndall

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Uncertainty, climate scenarios and adaptation Suraje Dessai Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK

Uncertainty, climate scenarios and adaptation Suraje Dessai Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK and School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK CLIMATE CHANGE KIOSK EVENT CALENDAR GLOBAL CLIMATE SCIENCE

Uncertainty in climate change IMPACTS [Source: Carter, 2000]

Uncertainty in climate change IMPACTS [Source: Carter, 2000]

Why might we need probabilities of climate change? • To assess the seriousness of

Why might we need probabilities of climate change? • To assess the seriousness of impacts we need to know how likely they are to occur (Schneider, 2001, 2002). • Probabilities represent uncertainty explicitly and thus better fit a risk assessment framework: “the reason for quantifying risk it to make coherent risk management decisions under uncertainties and within resource constrains” (Pate-Cornell 1996); this allows decisionmakers to hedge the risk of climate change • Several communities (water resource managers and engineers) demand it! • The central role played by prediction in guiding decision-making.

What are the problems in estimating probabilities? • Probabilities only one method to represent

What are the problems in estimating probabilities? • Probabilities only one method to represent uncertainties • Confusion about probabilities, risk and uncertainty (various definitions and typologies) Incomplete vs unknowable knowledge Epistemic vs stochastic uncertainty Subjective vs aleatory uncertainty Type B vs type A uncertainty Reducible vs irreducible uncertainty … Stirling (1998)

Different types of uncertainty in the context of climate change Type of knowledge Type

Different types of uncertainty in the context of climate change Type of knowledge Type uncertainty of Possible to probabilities represent with Incomplete Epistemic Yes, but limited by knowledge Incomplete. Unknowable Natural stochastic Yes, but with limits Unknowable Human reflexive No, scenarios required

Emission scenarios Global climate sensitivity Regional climate change Local climate change

Emission scenarios Global climate sensitivity Regional climate change Local climate change

Sensitivity of adaptation decision -making Adaptation decisions Probability A – Alternative supply required B

Sensitivity of adaptation decision -making Adaptation decisions Probability A – Alternative supply required B – Build new storage C – Operations management changes D – No changes required E – Operations management changes F – Develop small infrastructure G – Develop big infrastructure Climate variable A B C D Decisions E F G

Sensitivity of adaptation decision -making Adaptation decisions Probability A – Alternative supply required B

Sensitivity of adaptation decision -making Adaptation decisions Probability A – Alternative supply required B – Build new storage C – Operations management changes D – No changes required E – Operations management changes F – Develop small infrastructure G – Develop big infrastructure Climate variable A B C D Decisions E F G

Further reading Dessai and Hulme (2003) Does climate policy need probabilities? Tyndall Working Paper

Further reading Dessai and Hulme (2003) Does climate policy need probabilities? Tyndall Working Paper 34 http: //www. tyndall. ac. uk/publications/workin g_papers/wp 34. pdf

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