Science Mission Directorate EarthSun System Division National Aeronautics

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Short-term Forecasting and WRF Case Study Steven J. Goodman W. Lapenta, K. La Casse, E. Mc. Caul, and W. Petersen NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Earth and Planetary Science Branch Huntsville, Alabama, USA NWS Severe Weather Technology Workshop 10/22/2021 12 -14 July 2005 Silver Spring, MD 1

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Outline of Talk 1. 2. 3. 4. 10/22/2021 Nowcasting Gaps and Opportunities WRF-RAMS Case Study- 10 Dec. 2004 Columbia Project-WRF modeling plans Concluding Remarks 2

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration NWS STIP Solutions (Science and Technology Infusion Plan) Theme Service Gap Solution Impact Severe Weather Aviation Weather Specification of pre-storm environment, boundaries, severe WX signatures WRF, DA, ensembles, lightning data, SCAN, higher res. satellite obs. Improved POD, leadtime, FAR, more precise boundary observations Timing and location of convection, probabilistic information for DSS WRF, ensembles, DA, hourly updates, NCWF (radar + lightning) 50% increase POD, greater operational utility Weather Research and Forecast, WRF Data Assimilation, DA Additional Forecast Interests CI- convective initiation TI- first lightning (35 db. Z at -15 C) TF-10/22/2021 final lightning 3

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration *Visionary Forecast and Warning Lead Times Variable (Lead Time) 2000 2012 Tornado 12 min 1 hr Severe Storm 18 min (county) 4 hr (city) Flash flood 43 min (county) 4 hr (neighborhood) Hurricane 20 hr/400 mi (coastline) 3 days/200 mi (coastline) Winter storm 9 hr (county) 5 days (neighborhood) Low ceiling, visibility - 5 hr (airport, port) Turbulence, icing `- 5 hr along flight corridor Maritime wind, wave - 5 hr Air Quality (city) 5 days 10/22/2021 *NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan: Lightning Observation and Forecast Benefit 4

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division Nowcasting Defined National Aeronautics and Space Administration • Nowcasting: forecasting with local detail, by any method, over a period from the present to a few hours ahead; that includes a detailed description of the present weather, and includes the blending of extrapolation, statistical, and heuristic techniques (includes theory, expert systems, fuzzy logic, and forecaster rule of thumb), and NWP 10/22/2021 5

Extrapolation Convergence line Detection & characterization Statistical Data Fusion System Radar retrievals Model derived forecast fields Nowcast NWP Forecast Rules Forecast Input rules Forecaster e. q collision e. q. boundary convergence line storm likely Input, initiation meteorological situation Courtesy, Jim Wilson NCAR WWRP/Tom Keenan

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lightning Connection to Thunderstorm Updraft, Storm Growth and Decay • Total Lightning —responds to updraft velocity and concentration, phase, type of hydrometeors, integrated flux of particles • WX Radar — responds to concentration, size, phase, and type of hydrometeorsintegrated over small volumes • Microwave Radiometer — responds to concentration, size, phase, and type of hydrometeors — integrated over depth of storm (85 GHz ice scattering) • VIS / IR — cloud top height/temperature, texture, optical depth 10/22/2021 7

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Configuration • 4 km horizontal resolution • 37 vertical levels • Dynamics and physics – – – Eulerian mass core Dudhia SW radiation RRTM LW radiation YSU PBL scheme Noah LSM WSM 6 -class microphysics scheme – Explicit convection • 24 h forecast initialized at 00 UTC 10 December 2004 with AWIP 212 NCEP EDAS analysis • Eta 3 -h forecasts used for LBC’s 10/22/2021 Cloud cover 18 h forecast valid at 18 UTC 10 Dec. 2004 8

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division WRF Surface Based CAPE 18 h fcst valid 18 UTC Dec 10 National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10/22/2021 9

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Sounding ~ 800 J/kg CAPE 10/22/2021 10

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration MIPS Sounding ~ 761 J/kg CAPE • Low level lapse rates and low freezing level efficient for converting CAPE to kinetic energy • Surface T=15 C, Td=10 C • Max w= 19 m/s 10/22/2021 UAH MIPS, Kevin Knupp 11

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division WRF 3 h Precipitation 18 h fcst valid 18 UTC Dec 10 National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10/22/2021 12

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division WRF 3 h Precipitation 21 h fcst valid 21 UTC Dec 10 National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10/22/2021 13

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division WRF 3 h Precipitation 21 h fcst valid 21 UTC Dec 10 National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10/22/2021 Question: Any lightning, when was it, What was WRF reflectivity at -15 C? 14

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division WRF Reflectivity (d. BZ) 18 h forecast valid at 18 UTC 10 Dec. 2004 National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF reflectivity cores too shallow -15 C - 0 C- 850 h. Pa 10/22/2021 15

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Reflectivity (d. BZ) 06: 50 h forecast valid at 18: 50 UTC 10 Dec. 2004 850 h. Pa 10/22/2021 16

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ground-truth Report of Dime-Size Hail Owens Crossroads, Alabama 10/22/2021 17

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10 December Hail Case ARMOR collected data! First time ZDR used on television! • Cold upper-low • GOES 2057 J/kg CAPE in a layer about 7. 5 km deep • GOES sounding too warm and moist near surface, likely cloud contaminated • Dime to quarter-sized hail reported in SE Madison county 10/22/2021 and in S. Tennessee 18

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10/22/2021 KHTX NEXRAD 19

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division ARMOR 1. 3 degree PPI scan at 17: 55 UTC on 10 Dec. 04 National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCAR HYDRO-ID REFLECTIVITY Cloud Drizzle Particle Identification Reflectivity [d. BZ] Lt. Rain Mod. Rain Heavy Rain Hail/Rain Small Hail Rain/Sm. Hail Dry Snow Wet Snow 5 Ice Crys. HAIL 10/22/2021 SMALL HAIL RAIN 12 20 28 35 43 50 57 20

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Rain/Hail ARMOR: 12/10/04 17: 55: 06 EL=1. 3 o d. BZ ZDR Rain/Hail -0. 5 to 2 d. B 40 -55 d. BZ Hail -1. 5 to 0. 5 d. B 50 -55 d. BZ Rain 2 to 3. 5 d. B 55+ d. BZ Hail 55+ d. BZ -15 - 5 5 15 25 35 45 -1. 8 -0. 9 0. 1 1. 0 1. 9 2. 9 3. 6 Hail -1 to 0. 5 d. B At 17: 55 IC fl. rate ~ 3/minute in southern cell No IC’s in northern cell at 17: 55 No CG’s in either cell for 20 minutes centered on 17: 55 Only 3 CG’s detected for duration of storms 10/22/2021 LMA S. Cell 17: 52: 30 – 17: 57: 30 21

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration LMA Observed Flashes Precede Hail Report 10/22/2021 22

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration • • • RAMS Configuration 500 m horizontal resolution Height, Dz is variable, from 250 m at bottom to 750 m at 20 km height Domain 75 km x 24. 5 km Time, Dt = 4 s, five acoustic steps between Smagorinsky subgrid mixing scheme 5 -class precipitating hydrometeors: – Rain, snow, aggregates, graupel, hail • • Initialized with 3 K warm bubble, radius=12 km at z=0 120 min simulation, initiation effects dominate until t=60 min 10/22/2021 23

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration RAMS Configuration Graupel • • • 500 m horizontal resolution Height, Dz is variable, from 250 m at bottom to 750 m at 20 km height Domain 75 km x 24. 5 km Time, Dt = 4 s, five acoustic steps between Smagorinsky subgrid mixing scheme 5 -class precipitating hydrometeors: – Rain, snow, aggregates, graupel, hail • • Initialized with 3 K warm bubble, radius=12 km at z=0 120 min simulation, initiation effects dominate until t=60 min 10/22/2021 24

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration RAMS Configuration Hail • • • 500 m horizontal resolution Height, Dz is variable, from 250 m at bottom to 750 m at 20 km height Domain 75 km x 24. 5 km Time, Dt = 4 s, five acoustic steps between Smagorinsky subgrid mixing scheme 5 -class precipitating hydrometeors: – Rain, snow, aggregates, graupel, hail • • Initialized with 3 K warm bubble, radius=12 km at z=0 120 min simulation, initiation effects dominate until t=60 min 10/22/2021 25

Science Mission Directorate Use of MODIS SST Earth-Sun System Division to Improve High Resolution Modeling of Atmosphere/Ocean Interactions within the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Coastal Zones National Aeronautics and Space Administration PI: William M. Lapenta/NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center @ MSFC 100, 000 Processor Hours awarded March 2005 Award number: SMD-Dec 04 - 0036 Objective of Columbia Usage • Enables experimental high-resolution atmospheric modeling at 2 km resolution on an operational basis that would not be possible otherwise • Unique computational resources allows compilation of results for more than a single season • Allows for subjective impact assessment from operational NWS forecast community Identify the codes to be run on Columbia • WRF: Weather Prediction Model Sea surface temperature fields (K) mapped to a numerical model 2 km grid near Cape Canaveral, FL. The RTG is a default field used in most models. The MODIS SST composite contains detailed spatial structure that is known to affect weather near and along coastlines associated with mesoscale circulations. • ADAS: Data Assimilation System Scientific Impact Key Milestones • • Implement and optimize WRF configuration 05/05 Develop Web-based visualization for model output Conduct simulations on a daily basis Provide output to FL NWSFO’s in AWIPS Preliminary MODIS SST impact assessment Present results at AMS Annual Meeting 05/05 06/05 07/05 10/05 01/06 Prepare manuscript for peer-review publication Report findings to WRF modeling community 03/06 10/22/2021 Hypothesis: Accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing (i. e. , the specification of localized SST gradients and anomalies) within the WRF prediction system will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the sensible weather elements (i. e. , low-level horizontal transport, temperature trends, clouds, and precipitation) associated with them. Co-Is/Partners Kate La Casse and Stephanie Haines, University of Alabama in Huntsville Gary Jedlovec, NASA @ MSFC; Scott Dembek (USRA) Steven Lazarus, Florida Institute of Technology 26 Science Mission Directorate - Project Columbia Investigation

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Motivation for using High-Resolution MODIS SST Fields in NWP Models Ø SST known to influence coastal mesoscale processes Ø Can impact warm-season rm wa ol co precipitation distribution Ø Sea breeze circulations important to heavily populated areas (HOU, NYC) Ø Strong influence on height of marine boundary layer 10/22/2021 27

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Use of High-Resolution MODIS SST Fields in NWP Models Ø SST known to influence coastal mesoscale processes MODIS – RTG (°C) Mapped to MM 5 2 km grid Ø Can impact warm-season precipitation distribution rm wa ol co + 2. 0 °C Ø Sea breeze circulations important to heavily populated areas (HOU, NYC) C 10/22/2021 . 5 ° marine boundary layer +1 Ø Strong influence on height of 28

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF vs Eta Forecast, 14 July 2005 10/22/2021 29

Science Mission Directorate Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration NLDN Observed Lightning, 14 July 2005 10/22/2021 30